Oil Hits $70+ a barrel!

[wheelsup]

Oil bubble to burst: Forbes

I've got 4 words for mr forbes:

Don't hold your breath.

Oil prices are here to stay, and increase. Can jets be run on biodiesel?

~wheelsup

 

[miles otoole]

I've got 4 words for mr forbes:

Don't hold your breath.

Oil prices are here to stay, and increase. Can jets be run on biodiesel?

~wheelsup

Did you graduate from 5th grade?

 

[bugchaser]

What everyone fails to realize is that the disaster factor was already built into the price of oil. One of the reasons for the high price lately has been the hype of a possible dissaster or interuption in the flow of oil. These fears have led to the buying frenzy fed on by speculators and fund managers. Now that we have had the disaster, the price of oil has not changed that much since it was already overpriced. Gasoline and Heating oil/JetA is a different story because of the lack of refinery capacity. If you spend much time looking at the supply/demand fundamentals, it is my opinion that oil should be valued in the 40-45 dollar range. Don't get me wrong, I firmly believe that we should be pursuing alternative as soon as we can, but this doomsday scenario of peak oil is not all that realistic. I think that these high prices will actually serve to stimulate the switch to alternatives and will further help to stabilize the oil prices in the future. I actually fell for some of the hype and had decided that I was going to get rich on some futures contracts until I thought about it a little more. No matter how crazy and emotional the markets sometimes become, in the end the old economic principles always come back into play. At least I hope so.

Just some observations, take it or leave it.

 

[jetflyer]

Peak Oil is a natural geological event and is coming in 2007-2008. HERE IS A LIST of resources for anyone interested in learning more about PEAK OIL:

1)From Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava:
a)Select an Audio Format below to LISTEN TO Matthew Simmons talk about OIL SUPPLY Problems (PEAK OIL) HERE IS AUDIO:
Select an Audio Format to listen:
RealPlayer l WinAmp l Windows Media l mp3

b)LISTEN TO THE continuation of the show after Matthew Simmons left. They continue to talk about Peak Oil and the effects it will have on the economy. It talks about how to profit from it.

RealPlayer l WinAmp l Windows Media l mp3​

2)Roscoe Bartlett, Republican Congressman from Maryland just gave a new speech to Congress, broadcast on C-SPAN on July 19, 2005 about COMING OIL SUPPLY PROBLEMS(PEAK OIL).
Here is the transcript.:
a)http://www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/PO-July19-2005.html

April 19th Bartlett gave this speech to congress. This is a good speech to read,
b)http://www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/energyspeech.pdf

Roscoe Bartlett met with Bush about Peak Oil on June 29th. So Bush, no doubt knows about the coming oil supply problems. Here is the press release:
c)http://www.bartlett.house.gov/latestnews.asp?ARTICLE2900=7308

3) Here is a recent Associated press article:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-05-28-oil-shortage_x.htm?csp=34

4) A great site for PEAK OIL introduction:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

5) Article about Peak Oil coming around 2007-2008:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/196

6) http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm
Read as many of the articles here especially the Peak Oil ones
a) Peak Oil and what it means to you: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2005/0703.html
b) Crude Awakening: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/saxena/2005/0617.html

7) An investment firm that specializes in ENERGY, 321Energy, has daily news articles on PEAK OIL and OIL in general here: http://www.321energy.com/archives.php?c=oil
Canadian Economist talks about imminent Peak oil Problem: http://www.321energy.com/editorials/sprott/sprott070505.html

8) A GREAT BLOG with news updates daily all about PEAK OIL: http://www.theoildrum.com/

9) Great Chat Group, look at Current Events, Peak Oil Discussion, Energy Technology, and Economics of Peak Oil: http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html

10) Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html

11) The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has their website at: www.peakoil.net They have a new newsletter every month I believe, which talks about the newest developments on peak oil. They have done analysis on Peak Oil and predict 2007-2008 for Peak Oil.

12) Here is the Oil Depletion Analysis Center (ODAC) site. They also have done analysis on Peak Oil and predict 2007-2008 for Peak Oil.They have new articles about peak oil all the time:
http://www.odac-info.org/

13) New York Times Magazine article on coming Peak Oil. They interview Matthew Simmons and the ex-President of Saudi Arabia's Oil company ARAMCO:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html

14) The Ultimate Doomer Site-He basically thinks we're screwed no matter what: www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net -- Everything UNDERLINED is a link and you can explore almost all his sources. I recommend looking at as many links as you have time for. READ THE INFORMATION ABOUT THE WARS THAT ARE BEING PLANNED BY THE GOVT TO GO "GET OUR OIL" SERIOUS WARS ARE COMING.

15) Here is a site that has new articles on Peak Oil and ALL THE ALTERNATIVES and their progress:
http://www.energybulletin.net/


I think the U.S. will liquefy coal, use the Oil-shale of the Rocky Mountains, and adjust using every alternative imaginable. I think we'll have a very bad recession before things get better. How long will it take? I don't know. I'm not really sure how long it will take to get the alternatives going. Some DOOMERS say total collapse is unavoidable. I think we'll transition after a really hard recession, but really I don't know what to think. I do SERIOUSLY think we'll probably enter more Natural Resource Wars like we did in IRAQ to secure more oil for ourselves. If we win the wars, we'll probably not have anything to worry about Well if we lose, uh we're screwed.

See ya,
Jet

 

[Focus]

Anyone that says they have taken their profits and oil is going to come down must be a genious. Oil is spiking high now due to the storm...This is a good time to short it but only for the short term, meaning perhaps the next month. To be honest I would just let it ride but I definately would not be buying at this level. Labor Day Weekend is coming and that will drive it up some after it falls back to 64...Anyhow, Ive been providing you guys with a roadmap of Oil Prices.

From now on Im charging $500.00 for my Oil Price Map. This is a nominal fee for anyone wanting my advice.

 

[Focus]

This is a post I made back in June. Here it is...

So here we are at the end of June. Oil, at its all time high pushin 60/bbl....Anyone care to speculate where Oil will be by Jan 1, 2006....Let me start by saying once again...I am not an EXPERT, only an investor....With that in mind I predict oil to run up to 63-70bbl by Aug 31st and the US Economy to go into a major recession within the next three months...I hate to sound so pessimistic but the writing is on the wall to me...My money is still in OIL albeit my job is in aviation..

Warning to all...If your in stocks get out NOW!!!!!B/F you loose what you've worked so hard for.. Talk with your company and make sure their hedged BIG TIME...OIL will drop some from here and perhaps IMHO as low as 48 but that would be way low....A Hedge at 50-55 would still be profitable next year.....Oil to 85 by June 06.......See my previous Post on this subject and hopefully you will see that I am spending a great amount of time studying the upcoming WORLD CRISIS in OIL which were now fully into.....FDJ2/CHperplt Good Luck Guys

 

[h25b]

If prices at the pump reach $3.00 sooner or later the rest of the economy IS GOING to slow down, PERIOD... The bull in the market has been the unwavering consumer and the good economy has been characterized at least in the early stages by a "jobless" recovery. I can't imagine how we could sustain the current economy if the consumer is stressed out too much...

Wait till the winter heating bills start coming in.

 

[Dangerkitty]

I've got 4 words for mr forbes:

Don't hold your breath.

Oil prices are here to stay, and increase. Can jets be run on biodiesel?

~wheelsup

Yeah, becuase Forbes is a real moron.

What info do you have to back up your claims? How can you justify the statement that Oil prices are here to stay?

 

[BoilerUP]

After looking briefly at some Peak Oil information, I seem to think those most hardcore into this theory have already made their run at purple veils and black Nike shoes

Since Iraq was a "natural resource war", why aren't we getting oil for $20/bbl from there? Isn't Iraq one of the largest oil exporting countries in the world? If the United States is so hard-up for crude I'd imagine the government or private corporations would have invested billions by now in multiple pipelines, pumping stations, and extra security to protect their arabian 'cash cow'. I'd also expect we'd have tapped ANWR yesterday if supply was getting so short, environmentalists be danged. When are we invading Alberta for their shale and sandy oil deposits?

Lack of supply is not driving this spike - Wall Street greed is.

 

[G100driver]

Do guys on "oiltradingfutures.com" debate how to perform the perfect ILS?

 

[JPB]

This is an election year. The price of oil is going to come down just around that time.

We should really increase the national reserves now that the barrel is at $70; that should push it up to 80-85 and then release some for the elderly, bringing it back down to 75-80 for the elections.



For those of you thinking that drilling more is the solution, I recommend you look at some numbers such as variation in production vs comsumsion in the last 5 years rather than taking advise from the $20B profit/quarter (yes a B) oil industry. That would lower your cost at the pump the same way that lowering EPA standards (mercury emissions) did, or attacking Iraq for that matter (see early 2003 analyses)



If you think this administration is doing a good job so far, you're really going to like its impact on the economy. The car and airline industries are the first tiny

casualties. The ripple effect is going to affect the recovery )) more than any tax break.



The only thing saving us is the cost of a new computer: $250...

 

[2LT]

Boy, I hope not...

If they do, we're really in trouble!!

Haha...

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Currently the excess oil production worldwide is ONLY 2.5m barrels/day. Katrina took out 1.4m barrels/Day, which was 60% of the worldwide excess prodcution, which is why oil prices went up.

For those of you thinking it's only a refining capacity problem, gasoline prices went up much more than oil prices went up. The higher gasoline wholesale prices are because of refining capacity ceilings. The higher oil prices are because of worldwide demand vs. worldwide production. These are two separate issues that both effect the end price of gasoline. Make no mistake, there is a worldwide oil production vs. consumption problem, which has nothing to do with refining capability.

Cliff
GRB

 

[bugchaser]

jetflyer, I know that you are hopelessly caught up in all this, but look at where much of this information comes from. Much of the data and scary prospects come from the folks that stand to profit from the increased frenzy and rise of prises. Getting people like you to panic and spread the word only serves to fan the flames and continue to cause prises to go up. There is no fundamental basis for oil prices to have been as high as they are over the last few months. If we were at the correct market price, we would be seeing drastic price increases for crude in the wake of this dissaster. Notice today that it has still not been able to sustain a price of over the $70 mark. Again, that is because the price was already inflated to way over where it should have been. In my opinion, we will stay at about these levels or maybe in the 60's till after the winter heating season. Next spring prices will more than likely level off at about the 40-45 dollar range where economic rules say that it should be. On the upside of all of these high prices, there has been a stimulation of alternative fuels etc, which we need to prepare for the future. As some of these are now economically feasible at this price level, this should also help to stabilize the price in the coming months and years. If we all wake up and work to develope these and other alternatives, we can have an easier transition away from fossil fuels in the future. We should look at these high prices as a good thing in that maybe it will serve to help us find the alternatives that we all know that will be needed some day.


The concept of Peak Oil does exist, but it is not the end of the world.
Relax a little.

 

[Dangerkitty]

jetflyer, I know that you are hopelessly caught up in all this, but look at where much of this information comes from. Much of the data and scary prospects come from the folks that stand to profit from the increased frenzy and rise of prises. Getting people like you to panic and spread the word only serves to fan the flames and continue to cause prises to go up. There is no fundamental basis for oil prices to have been as high as they are over the last few months. If we were at the correct market price, we would be seeing drastic price increases for crude in the wake of this dissaster. Notice today that it has still not been able to sustain a price of over the $70 mark. Again, that is because the price was already inflated to way over where it should have been. In my opinion, we will stay at about these levels or maybe in the 60's till after the winter heating season. Next spring prices will more than likely level off at about the 40-45 dollar range where economic rules say that it should be. On the upside of all of these high prices, there has been a stimulation of alternative fuels etc, which we need to prepare for the future. As some of these are now economically feasible at this price level, this should also help to stabilize the price in the coming months and years. If we all wake up and work to develope these and other alternatives, we can have an easier transition away from fossil fuels in the future. We should look at these high prices as a good thing in that maybe it will serve to help us find the alternatives that we all know that will be needed some day.


The concept of Peak Oil does exist, but it is not the end of the world.
Relax a little.

Great post bugchaser.

If you go to that loony's website www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net he actually advocates going out and buying a really good mountain bike because in the coming years that will be the only way that we will be able to get around.

These people are getting others all wrapped around the axel about what the future holds and they only use half truths and scare tactics to get their point across. And it looks like they have somewhat succeeded. You have people on this message board that actually believes this garbage.

Why should anyone worry about oil resources going away when the REAL problem in the US and the world is the Governments use of CHEMTRAILS!!