OIL CRISIS VIDEO-Peak Oil Introduction

[jetflyer]

This is the best peak oil introduction video I've ever seen.

It's an ABC Australia video that is 13 minutes long.

Here is the link:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article13112.htm

The countries' leaders of the world know about this and are trying to slowly get you ready to handle it mentally. In the meanwhile they're competing for the last remaining oil resources of the world and trying to spur alternatives without causing a panic.

They definitely don't want anyone to think that oil will ever run out.

Jet

 

[SPilot]

Oil is presently the largest capital reserve in the world, of course they dont want us to think that their money will be worth alot less once the oil-dependant infrastructure stops running.

Another thing is the aging fleet of oil rigs and exploration equipment: the oil companies had this coming for a long time, but didnt want to invest in new constructions. When last years hurricane took out a large part of the american jackup-fleet, and the average age of the jackup-rigs world wide is 25 years and total life span is usually 35 years, its pretty easy to see that there will be some difficulties in increasing the production and search for new fields in the time to come. So the times of cheap oil are definitivly behind us.

 

[PacoPollo]

GM has the employee discount.America, time to get those Hummers,Tahoes,Suburban SUV's so we can help the economy!

 

[caliginousface]

Sahweet! More and more people finding out about peak oil, I dig it. The cool thing is once airplanes can't take to the skies anymore, we can all become high speed rail operators.

Here's a trailer for a documentary called "The End of Suburbia." Looks like all those kids that went for agriculture degrees are going to be the real winners in life.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHr8OzaloLM

 

[gsrcrsx68]

Looks like all those kids that went for agriculture degrees are going to be the real winners in life.

Yeah....It only takes 1.2 gallons of ethanol to make a gallon of ethanol.

 

[caliginousface]

Yeah....It only takes 1.2 gallons of ethanol to make a gallon of ethanol.

Alright lets think a little deeper and go worst case doomsdayer scenario. When oil becomes to expensive to extract, and all the Energy Returned On Energy Invested stuff starts making sense, and the global economy collapses, quite a few of us will know little about soil science and how to farm properly. Growing your own food may be the only thing any one can do.

 

[SPilot]

Well, thanks to the technological advances, I think you can hold back on your doomsday talk. You're right that in worst case, large populations will not be able to survive because their food supply chain is dependant on petrolium, but there's alternatives which can be more rapidly put into the market place as the demand increases.

Regular piston engines and jet engines can operate perfectly on hydrogen, which exists in larger quantities than oil, and can be found everywhere there is water, as well as in natural gas and ...well, everywhere. All it will take is a new way of extracting it.

Nikola Tesla, who invented the AC power as we know it today, also discovered several other interesting properties of electricity, but the world of science hasnt really paid any attention to that part of Teslas work. He was able to create a kind of cold/radiant electricity, which didnt consume coulumbs, but was able to perform more work than regular electromotor voltage. Combine this with a pulse charging device for a electrolysis fuel cell, and we may see a new technology capable of extracting hydrogen from water with high enough effeciency to run our vehicles on-demand. Independent scientists are beginning to research this stuff these days, and NASA and the US Military have been interested in it for decades. If NASA can be the "hero" and introduce this stuff, I'm sure their budget issues will be solved for a long time. It would be a much better contribution to the tax payers than the parachute for General Aviation that NASA have been spending money on...

 

[caliginousface]

Well, thanks to the technological advances, I think you can hold back on your doomsday talk. You're right that in worst case, large populations will not be able to survive because their food supply chain is dependant on petrolium, but there's alternatives which can be more rapidly put into the market place as the demand increases.

Regular piston engines and jet engines can operate perfectly on hydrogen, which exists in larger quantities than oil, and can be found everywhere there is water, as well as in natural gas and ...well, everywhere. All it will take is a new way of extracting it.

Nikola Tesla, who invented the AC power as we know it today, also discovered several other interesting properties of electricity, but the world of science hasnt really paid any attention to that part of Teslas work. He was able to create a kind of cold/radiant electricity, which didnt consume coulumbs, but was able to perform more work than regular electromotor voltage. Combine this with a pulse charging device for a electrolysis fuel cell, and we may see a new technology capable of extracting hydrogen from water with high enough effeciency to run our vehicles on-demand. Independent scientists are beginning to research this stuff these days, and NASA and the US Military have been interested in it for decades. If NASA can be the "hero" and introduce this stuff, I'm sure their budget issues will be solved for a long time.

Those are some high hopes you're holding for the future, i'm hoping you are right. To rely on and claim technology will bail us out of every jam is a risky thing to do. To say that new technology for vehicles and aircraft can be placed rapidly into the current infrastructure doesn't make all that much sense. Many feel that time to start these investments and changes was years ago, but again, I hope that you are right.

However big changes in our lifestyles will probably take place, we as America, produce an incredible amount of waste and consume energy like crazy. I'm hoping at least this will happen.

Does this mean we can put tesla coils in our front yards at zap the unwanted like in Red Alert?

 

[SPilot]

Does this mean we can put tesla coils in our front yards at zap the unwanted like in Red Alert?

LOL. The Tesla coil in Red Alert was on the russian side, if I remember correctly. Strange considering Tesla became an american before he gave inventions to the world....anyway, here's some tesla coils you can put on your lawn:
http://www.amazing1.com/tesla.htm

1.5 million volts will zap anyone within 6 feet, so you'll maybe need a couple of them. Try asking your local building inspector/dictator for forgivness after it zaps an innocent bypasser.

 

[jetflyer]

Am I imagining things or is the fact that there is an intelligent conversation going on here about our energy future mean people are starting to accept peak oil as a possibility? Admitting there is a problem is the first step. Conventional easy to get oil reaching a peak production is going to be the challenge to overcome for mankind for several decades to come. The price is going a LOT higher before this is over with. We're all going to have to get used to much more expensive energy till alternatives can make a difference in a decade or two. Jet

 

[Dangerkitty]

Am I imagining things or is the fact that there is an intelligent conversation going on here about our energy future mean people are starting to accept peak oil as a possibility? Admitting there is a problem is the first step. Conventional easy to get oil reaching a peak production is going to be the challenge to overcome for mankind for several decades to come. The price is going a LOT higher before this is over with. We're all going to have to get used to much more expensive energy till alternatives can make a difference in a decade or two. Jet

The "Oracle of Oil" was on CNBC the other day. CNBC claims he is right about oil and gas over 90% of the time. He mentioned that Oil would go over $80 a barrel and then down to the $55 dollar range.

He never mentioned a thing about Peak Oil. His reasoning for the oil spikes was demand was high and that production was at Capacity.

Peak oil is bunk. This is the marketplace at work.

Once again Jetflyer, if you are so concerned about peak oil then stop flying airplanes and contributing to this problem you have imagined.

 

[SPilot]

Peak oil is bunk. This is the marketplace at work.

Am I getting you right, that because CNBC speaker didnt mention 'peak oil', you're assuming this whole oil-price thing will go over in a short time?

He said: demand is high, production is at capacity.
Will demand decrease in the near future? (air traffic increasing, the yellow man is beginning to get a taste for gasoline)
Will production catch up? American oil companies does not hold the majority of orders for new rig constructions at the few remaining yards. The most emerging market right now is in the indian ocean, but they are pumping oil for their own rapidly expanding market.

That the outlet pressure in oil wells decreases after a while, have been well known since the late 70's, so maybe the CNBC-oracle didnt mention it because it is old news?

 

[caliginousface]

The "Oracle of Oil" was on CNBC the other day. CNBC claims he is right about oil and gas over 90% of the time. He mentioned that Oil would go over $80 a barrel and then down to the $55 dollar range.

He never mentioned a thing about Peak Oil. His reasoning for the oil spikes was demand was high and that production was at Capacity.

Peak oil is bunk. This is the marketplace at work.

Once again Jetflyer, if you are so concerned about peak oil then stop flying airplanes and contributing to this problem you have imagined.

You know who predicted the US peak of oil production and when it would happen? Dang, I wonder if that means anything.

jetflyer, I gained interest in the topic during my short stint at Erby Diddle Airplane School. Is this a serious issue? Well I think if even energy exec's are saying "alright, we've got a problem here," I think we should think a little deeper. The problem with getting that hard to reach oil is that eventually we'll be expending more energy that we get out. Deep down I hope problems arise for the human race, so we all see the simple things in life are what matter, and that religion and ethnicity mean nothing, and crying over American Idol results and My Super Sweet Sixteen characters can grow the ******************** up.

To deny there is no problem or state that a decline is actually happening can and probably will prove to be very foolish. Oil go down to $55? Don't hold your breathe. With the two big guys over in Asia going crazy with expansion, I don't think it's possible.

I try and find some info about this EROEI stuff and see if you guys dig it.

 

[caliginousface]

Oh btw if any of you think it's "dang liburls" claiming this madness, should any of you know who the US Army Corps of Engineers are, they released a report in September 2005 which included the following:

You ready?

The doubling of oil prices from 2003-2005 is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Oil production is approaching its peak; low growth in availability can be expected for the next 5 to 10 years. As worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will cause even more significant price increases and security risks. One can only speculate at the outcome from this scenario as world petroleum production declines.

Oh snap!

Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports.

Demand now exceeds production and we are seeing that effect on prices. After the peak is reached, geopolitics and market economics will result in significant price increases above what we have seen to date. Security risks will also rise. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.

If you guys want the 86 page report, let me know.

 

[SPilot]

Back in the eighties it was said that in the event that oil production was interrupted, it would take 27 days before all reserves would be emptied, and all fuel based transportation in America would stop. Any of you know how long time this would take if oil production halted today? Having protected fuel reserves should certainly be a matter of national security - if terrorists are able to stop the continous production and supply of fuel to America, there can be quite severe consequences for everyone dependant on food transportation (which is everyone who gets their food from walmart or mcdonalds).

I'm surprised at how little action the american oil exploration companies like Noble, Pride and Transocean have taken to secure future exploration capacity. Right now the new constructions currently in production at KEPFEL and PPL (the largest shipyards specializing in building rigs) are being sold to companies in India, without any attempt from american oil companies to bid for these rigs.

 

[threegreen]

Let's freeze the sands of colorado, then heat it up and draw the oil out of it. Use nuculear power for the energy required... 100 bucks a barrel until the ocean level rises and we're all swimming.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

If you guys want the 86 page report, let me know.

I do.

Hey Jetflyer!
I thought we agreed to stow this conversation until we hit the
$80/barrel mark!

CE

 

[caliginousface]

I do.

Hey Jetflyer!
I thought we agreed to stow this conversation until we hit the
$80/barrel mark!

CE

http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf save as, etc.

 

[IFollowRoads]

There is no spoon.

 

[jetflyer]

Crimson

It's stuck at this $75.00/barrel point and I have a couple days off with the wife at work and I'm bored and I found that cool video! I thought surely we'd be above $80 by July 4th, but I guess we'll have to wait for the hurricanes. I don't think it will be long though!

Jet

 

[con-pilot]

If unrestricted exploration and production of oil and natural gas were to be allowed on the Continental Shelf of the United States the price of a barrel of oil would drop by $20.00 just on the announcement.

These studies still never factor in the massive oil reserves of the oil shale and tar areas.

There is still plenty of oil and natural gas, it is just getting more expensive to get the resources to the consumer.

When was the last time a new oil refinery was built in the United States?

 

[caliginousface]

If unrestricted exploration and production of oil and natural gas were to be allowed on the Continental Shelf of the United States the price of a barrel of oil would drop by $20.00 just on the announcement.

These studies still never factor in the massive oil reserves of the oil shale and tar areas.

There is still plenty of oil and natural gas, it is just getting more expensive to get the resources to the consumer.

When was the last time a new oil refinery was built in the United States?

Uhh maybe the oil shale thing will work, but where are you going ot get the energy to melt it to turn it into oil? Gonna burn some more fuels to make it happen?

Here's what the US Army Corps of Engineers have to say about oil shale:
Oil shale is actually neither oil nor shale. It is organic marlstone containing kerogen, a solid organic material that has not evolved to oil. The United States has an estimated 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil from shale (WEC 2001). Unfortunately, it has not proven to be economically recoverable. It takes two barrels of water to make one barrel of shale oil along with significant amounts of energy, resulting in a poor net energy ratio. Oil shale is found in the states of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. These are not areas with high water availability and its production has huge materials handling and disposal problems. The production process creates a larger volume of waste than the material originally removed from the ground and the resulting material contains salt compounds, which can contaminate surface water supplies. Several projects and production methods have been tried over the last several decades, but none were successful. Due to its high energy requirements, the cost of shale oil has historically exceeded conventional oil. To date, the financial and energy economics of oil shale have not been viable; this is unlikely to change.

I don't know man.

 

[threegreen]

Due to its high energy requirements, the cost of shale oil has historically exceeded conventional oil. To date, the financial and energy economics of oil shale have not been viable; this is unlikely to change.

It's just a matter of time before the economics make sense.

 

[caliginousface]

It's just a matter of time before the economics make sense.

These are not areas with high water availability and its production has huge materials handling and disposal problems. The production process creates a larger volume of waste than the material originally removed from the ground and the resulting material contains salt compounds, which can contaminate surface water supplies.

I guess, if you're willing to ignore environmental effects.

 

[threegreen]

I guess, if you're willing to ignore environmental effects.

Between that and the total economic collapse some of the peak oil activists are claiming...

 

[jetflyer]

There doesn't have to be a total economic collapse.

If we invest in the right directions including public transportation, electric cars, and renewable energy resources then new jobs will be created and the economy can grow. Also in the U.S. the internet is becoming so huge that I think we will adapt or have to adapt to working more at home.

Now food production will be the hardest thing in the future, especially since almost all fertilizers are made from fossil fuels.

Energy is going to be the largest problem for the next 20 years though. The oilsands, drilling off the coasts, the oil shale, etc. will not be enough if we reach peak oil in the next couple years. The Department of Energy has a great study on why these won't be enough which is linked to below.

Why won't the oil shale be enough if peak oil is reached now or within the next 3 years?Answer: The oil shale production is only supposed to amount to about 1 million barrels per day in 2015, and they're still not sure if they can get more oil out of the shale than energy they use!! (negative EROEI which won't matter if it is ever cost effective)

Oil sands production if it is ramped up at the fastest rates is only supposed to amount to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2015 from about 1 million barrels a day now!!

Opening up Alaska is only supposed to add 1 million barrels a day by 2015!!

Oil production is probably at its peak now. Oil production which includes the oil sands, heavy oil, all sources has been on a PLATEAU for almost the last 2 years now at about 84 million barrels a day. This is the real reason that oil prices are so high. Believe a picture is worth a thousand words than look at this picture of the oil production figures from the last few years and the PEAK developing(it is the second chart down, the first shows that Saudi Arabia is probably peaking right now!):
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/2/205758/5414#more

Do I think we shouldn't produce Alaskan oil, the oil sands, oil shale, etc. because each individual thing won't solve the problem? Hell no, we need to do them all. We need to rape the earth if we have to, but we do need to attempt to rape it gently Such as using carbon sequestration technologies for all new coal to oil production.

The people that think the energy crisis coming won't be a big deal because of this or that, need to do more research because frankly even President Bush and Cheney know this coming energy crisis is going to be huge.

Here is the Department of Energy study which is a great place to learn why the energy crisis coming will be a big deal:
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

This study above and the one posted by Caliginousface from the Army Corp of Engineers are must reads if you are a doubter that an energy crisis is coming.

Caliginousface, Please post some on EROEI. It is one reason making ethanol from corn is barely worth our time. We need to be making it from switchgrass and other sources. Also we need to start making cellulosic ethanol a reality.

Jet

 

[caliginousface]

There doesn't have to be a total economic collapse.

If we invest in the right directions including public transportation, electric cars, and renewable energy resources then new jobs will be created and the economy can grow. Also in the U.S. the internet is becoming so huge that I think we will adapt or have to adapt to working more at home.

I wouldn't be a damn bit suprised to see the end of the aviation industry, and the explosion of high speed rail.

Now food production will be the hardest thing in the future, especially since almost all fertilizers are made from fossil fuels.

This is a huge problem. Monoculture crops require huge amounts of resources. We should've kept those forests around a long time ago and grew crops there.

Do I think we shouldn't produce Alaskan oil, the oil sands, oil shale, etc. because each individual thing won't solve the problem? Hell no, we need to do them all. We need to rape the earth if we have to, but we do need to attempt to rape it gently Such as using carbon sequestration technologies for all new coal to oil production.

There is little benefit to titty ********************ing Alaska. Coal gasification has a great deal of issues too.

The following are from http://www.peakoil.com , a peak oil centered website and message board, and I take no credit for the original poster's work.

Peak Oil is based on the logic of Marion King Hubbert's curve which states that when half the world's oil is gone the rate of oil extraction will peak and decline. The Hubbert curve roughly resembles a bell shaped curve. After the peak is reached the world will have less oil every year. The results of peak oil will be at the very least an end to infinate growth replaced by perpetual economic and social decline posibly which only may lead to societal collapse. The process will take a long time after all half of the worlds oil still remains to be extracted after the peak.

If Peak Oil represents a long emergency of slow energy decline then net oil represents an appoclipitic end to energy as we know it. The concept of Net Oil is based on Energy Returned on Energy Invested or EROEI. It can easily be explained by this simple equation any economist will recognize.

Profit (Net Oil) = Revenue (Oil Outputs) - Costs (Oil Inputs)

Oil has been so cheap from an EROEI perspective over the last 140 years that it is easy to assume pumping oil has no costs. With an average EROEI of 30 to 1 return on energy investment in the last century all oil pumped for all practical purposes is profit or (Net Oil). The world Average EROEI has been falling for years and right now is around 15.

http://houston.peakoil.com/fortopic18912.html

This is one of the mod's signatures: A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."

http://www.eroei.com/ Talks about just what is says.

EROEI gets crazy and almost makes no sense sometimes.

 

[jetflyer]

I think the rich will always fly.

People will also always want to travel long distances and a serious high speed rail system will take a lot of time, so I think planes will be used to go see grandma and take that vacation for some time, but I do think like you that there will be a much needed transition to trains.

Trains will also be an integral part of future food and goods transportation. We need to get the food and goods off the roads. This will save a ton of oil.

We need to electrify those rails as well.

A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
The above quote always makes me laugh. I think that's Montequest's signature.

Calignousface,
You know a lot about peak oil. How come you haven't joined in on discussions in the past? I can't ever remember seeing you discuss it until now. It's nice having someone new to talk about this serious issue with. More people need to take it seriously and it's good to see that you understand that this is a serious problem with no easy solutions. Please continue to talk and take the lead whenever you can. I get pretty bored talking about it sometimes because people will be in denial until the price is $200/barrel and lately I've grown afraid to upset people. This problem is very upsetting to a lot of people. A lot of people will just never accept that their little world could be upset. So just expect to be attacked. The thing is some of them never dispute the facts, only attack us personally. Sometimes it gets old, but don't let them discourage you and once again welcome!

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

A great 27 minute audio interview, taped July 8th, with the author of a new peak oil book can be found here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leggett.html

The author is named Jeremy Leggett
His new book is: "The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe"

His bio says he is "an internationally renowned geologist and energy entrepreneur who spent the 1980s working for Big Oil, that sounds the alarm about an unprecedented crisis."

He says, "A new Manhattan Project for energy can save us if we can wake up and confront the problem directly." I hope people do wake up and this happens.

Unfortunately sometimes I get pessimistic. I think there are too many morons in the world that can't comprehend how serious this problem is, and I think we'll meander around till the problem becomes unmanageable. The world is full of too many morons, which is very, very dangerous for mankind's future. Short-sightedness kills. People of the world, "WAKE UP PLEASE!"<--sorry for my rant

It is a good interview. Please take the time to listen,
Jet

 

[caliginousface]

Thanks for the welcome jetflyer, I haven't participated before because I never signed up! Also, I really don't know all that much about peak oil, except that it freaks me out. I'm just barely getting into the specifics, and am hoping my classes with my major will help bring in more convincing data and knowledge.

I guess you can say the rich will always fly, but it will cost a pretty penny and I don't think there will be that many airplanes airborne unless everyone's dreams of technology pulling through for us comes true. And you know what, it just might. A year or two ago analysts said hydrogen fuel will become feasible in 10 years, maybe it will be just in time to save us, maybe it will be too late. Who knows, but it will be quite an interesting few years for the world as we continue to kill each other and burn up dinosaurs.

I agree high speed rail will of course need to be electrified. Solar and wind power if used correctly could cut quite a bit of power needed on the national grid. If we all built houses and buildings oriented to the south using the sun to heat homes (passive solar) we could cut all of our energy costs in half. There's so many things people could do to conserve, but no one will care until it gets too expensive. That's the name of the game always. Take their money, then they will care.

That's cool people feel good about denouncing a theory that a big time oil exec decades ago made. And the cool thing was he was right for the United States. Interesting. There is a huge energy problem oncoming, look at the US Army Corps of Engineers, they aren't the most liberal giving into all demands type of group. The world needs something to pull through, but maybe we'll all end up dead from some kind of war before we make necessary changes.