OIL CRISIS VIDEO-Peak Oil Introduction

[con-pilot]

If unrestricted exploration and production of oil and natural gas were to be allowed on the Continental Shelf of the United States the price of a barrel of oil would drop by $20.00 just on the announcement.

These studies still never factor in the massive oil reserves of the oil shale and tar areas.

There is still plenty of oil and natural gas, it is just getting more expensive to get the resources to the consumer.

When was the last time a new oil refinery was built in the United States?

 

[caliginousface]

If unrestricted exploration and production of oil and natural gas were to be allowed on the Continental Shelf of the United States the price of a barrel of oil would drop by $20.00 just on the announcement.

These studies still never factor in the massive oil reserves of the oil shale and tar areas.

There is still plenty of oil and natural gas, it is just getting more expensive to get the resources to the consumer.

When was the last time a new oil refinery was built in the United States?

Uhh maybe the oil shale thing will work, but where are you going ot get the energy to melt it to turn it into oil? Gonna burn some more fuels to make it happen?

Here's what the US Army Corps of Engineers have to say about oil shale:
Oil shale is actually neither oil nor shale. It is organic marlstone containing kerogen, a solid organic material that has not evolved to oil. The United States has an estimated 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil from shale (WEC 2001). Unfortunately, it has not proven to be economically recoverable. It takes two barrels of water to make one barrel of shale oil along with significant amounts of energy, resulting in a poor net energy ratio. Oil shale is found in the states of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. These are not areas with high water availability and its production has huge materials handling and disposal problems. The production process creates a larger volume of waste than the material originally removed from the ground and the resulting material contains salt compounds, which can contaminate surface water supplies. Several projects and production methods have been tried over the last several decades, but none were successful. Due to its high energy requirements, the cost of shale oil has historically exceeded conventional oil. To date, the financial and energy economics of oil shale have not been viable; this is unlikely to change.

I don't know man.

 

[threegreen]

Due to its high energy requirements, the cost of shale oil has historically exceeded conventional oil. To date, the financial and energy economics of oil shale have not been viable; this is unlikely to change.

It's just a matter of time before the economics make sense.

 

[caliginousface]

It's just a matter of time before the economics make sense.

These are not areas with high water availability and its production has huge materials handling and disposal problems. The production process creates a larger volume of waste than the material originally removed from the ground and the resulting material contains salt compounds, which can contaminate surface water supplies.

I guess, if you're willing to ignore environmental effects.

 

[threegreen]

I guess, if you're willing to ignore environmental effects.

Between that and the total economic collapse some of the peak oil activists are claiming...

 

[jetflyer]

There doesn't have to be a total economic collapse.

If we invest in the right directions including public transportation, electric cars, and renewable energy resources then new jobs will be created and the economy can grow. Also in the U.S. the internet is becoming so huge that I think we will adapt or have to adapt to working more at home.

Now food production will be the hardest thing in the future, especially since almost all fertilizers are made from fossil fuels.

Energy is going to be the largest problem for the next 20 years though. The oilsands, drilling off the coasts, the oil shale, etc. will not be enough if we reach peak oil in the next couple years. The Department of Energy has a great study on why these won't be enough which is linked to below.

Why won't the oil shale be enough if peak oil is reached now or within the next 3 years?Answer: The oil shale production is only supposed to amount to about 1 million barrels per day in 2015, and they're still not sure if they can get more oil out of the shale than energy they use!! (negative EROEI which won't matter if it is ever cost effective)

Oil sands production if it is ramped up at the fastest rates is only supposed to amount to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2015 from about 1 million barrels a day now!!

Opening up Alaska is only supposed to add 1 million barrels a day by 2015!!

Oil production is probably at its peak now. Oil production which includes the oil sands, heavy oil, all sources has been on a PLATEAU for almost the last 2 years now at about 84 million barrels a day. This is the real reason that oil prices are so high. Believe a picture is worth a thousand words than look at this picture of the oil production figures from the last few years and the PEAK developing(it is the second chart down, the first shows that Saudi Arabia is probably peaking right now!):
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/2/205758/5414#more

Do I think we shouldn't produce Alaskan oil, the oil sands, oil shale, etc. because each individual thing won't solve the problem? Hell no, we need to do them all. We need to rape the earth if we have to, but we do need to attempt to rape it gently Such as using carbon sequestration technologies for all new coal to oil production.

The people that think the energy crisis coming won't be a big deal because of this or that, need to do more research because frankly even President Bush and Cheney know this coming energy crisis is going to be huge.

Here is the Department of Energy study which is a great place to learn why the energy crisis coming will be a big deal:
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf

This study above and the one posted by Caliginousface from the Army Corp of Engineers are must reads if you are a doubter that an energy crisis is coming.

Caliginousface, Please post some on EROEI. It is one reason making ethanol from corn is barely worth our time. We need to be making it from switchgrass and other sources. Also we need to start making cellulosic ethanol a reality.

Jet

 

[caliginousface]

There doesn't have to be a total economic collapse.

If we invest in the right directions including public transportation, electric cars, and renewable energy resources then new jobs will be created and the economy can grow. Also in the U.S. the internet is becoming so huge that I think we will adapt or have to adapt to working more at home.

I wouldn't be a damn bit suprised to see the end of the aviation industry, and the explosion of high speed rail.

Now food production will be the hardest thing in the future, especially since almost all fertilizers are made from fossil fuels.

This is a huge problem. Monoculture crops require huge amounts of resources. We should've kept those forests around a long time ago and grew crops there.

Do I think we shouldn't produce Alaskan oil, the oil sands, oil shale, etc. because each individual thing won't solve the problem? Hell no, we need to do them all. We need to rape the earth if we have to, but we do need to attempt to rape it gently Such as using carbon sequestration technologies for all new coal to oil production.

There is little benefit to titty ********************ing Alaska. Coal gasification has a great deal of issues too.

The following are from http://www.peakoil.com , a peak oil centered website and message board, and I take no credit for the original poster's work.

Peak Oil is based on the logic of Marion King Hubbert's curve which states that when half the world's oil is gone the rate of oil extraction will peak and decline. The Hubbert curve roughly resembles a bell shaped curve. After the peak is reached the world will have less oil every year. The results of peak oil will be at the very least an end to infinate growth replaced by perpetual economic and social decline posibly which only may lead to societal collapse. The process will take a long time after all half of the worlds oil still remains to be extracted after the peak.

If Peak Oil represents a long emergency of slow energy decline then net oil represents an appoclipitic end to energy as we know it. The concept of Net Oil is based on Energy Returned on Energy Invested or EROEI. It can easily be explained by this simple equation any economist will recognize.

Profit (Net Oil) = Revenue (Oil Outputs) - Costs (Oil Inputs)

Oil has been so cheap from an EROEI perspective over the last 140 years that it is easy to assume pumping oil has no costs. With an average EROEI of 30 to 1 return on energy investment in the last century all oil pumped for all practical purposes is profit or (Net Oil). The world Average EROEI has been falling for years and right now is around 15.

http://houston.peakoil.com/fortopic18912.html

This is one of the mod's signatures: A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."

http://www.eroei.com/ Talks about just what is says.

EROEI gets crazy and almost makes no sense sometimes.

 

[jetflyer]

I think the rich will always fly.

People will also always want to travel long distances and a serious high speed rail system will take a lot of time, so I think planes will be used to go see grandma and take that vacation for some time, but I do think like you that there will be a much needed transition to trains.

Trains will also be an integral part of future food and goods transportation. We need to get the food and goods off the roads. This will save a ton of oil.

We need to electrify those rails as well.

A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
The above quote always makes me laugh. I think that's Montequest's signature.

Calignousface,
You know a lot about peak oil. How come you haven't joined in on discussions in the past? I can't ever remember seeing you discuss it until now. It's nice having someone new to talk about this serious issue with. More people need to take it seriously and it's good to see that you understand that this is a serious problem with no easy solutions. Please continue to talk and take the lead whenever you can. I get pretty bored talking about it sometimes because people will be in denial until the price is $200/barrel and lately I've grown afraid to upset people. This problem is very upsetting to a lot of people. A lot of people will just never accept that their little world could be upset. So just expect to be attacked. The thing is some of them never dispute the facts, only attack us personally. Sometimes it gets old, but don't let them discourage you and once again welcome!

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

A great 27 minute audio interview, taped July 8th, with the author of a new peak oil book can be found here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leggett.html

The author is named Jeremy Leggett
His new book is: "The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe"

His bio says he is "an internationally renowned geologist and energy entrepreneur who spent the 1980s working for Big Oil, that sounds the alarm about an unprecedented crisis."

He says, "A new Manhattan Project for energy can save us if we can wake up and confront the problem directly." I hope people do wake up and this happens.

Unfortunately sometimes I get pessimistic. I think there are too many morons in the world that can't comprehend how serious this problem is, and I think we'll meander around till the problem becomes unmanageable. The world is full of too many morons, which is very, very dangerous for mankind's future. Short-sightedness kills. People of the world, "WAKE UP PLEASE!"<--sorry for my rant

It is a good interview. Please take the time to listen,
Jet

 

[caliginousface]

Thanks for the welcome jetflyer, I haven't participated before because I never signed up! Also, I really don't know all that much about peak oil, except that it freaks me out. I'm just barely getting into the specifics, and am hoping my classes with my major will help bring in more convincing data and knowledge.

I guess you can say the rich will always fly, but it will cost a pretty penny and I don't think there will be that many airplanes airborne unless everyone's dreams of technology pulling through for us comes true. And you know what, it just might. A year or two ago analysts said hydrogen fuel will become feasible in 10 years, maybe it will be just in time to save us, maybe it will be too late. Who knows, but it will be quite an interesting few years for the world as we continue to kill each other and burn up dinosaurs.

I agree high speed rail will of course need to be electrified. Solar and wind power if used correctly could cut quite a bit of power needed on the national grid. If we all built houses and buildings oriented to the south using the sun to heat homes (passive solar) we could cut all of our energy costs in half. There's so many things people could do to conserve, but no one will care until it gets too expensive. That's the name of the game always. Take their money, then they will care.

That's cool people feel good about denouncing a theory that a big time oil exec decades ago made. And the cool thing was he was right for the United States. Interesting. There is a huge energy problem oncoming, look at the US Army Corps of Engineers, they aren't the most liberal giving into all demands type of group. The world needs something to pull through, but maybe we'll all end up dead from some kind of war before we make necessary changes.

 

[Wiggums]

One of the most worrying things about peak oil is that you very rarely hear any suggesting conservation as part of a solution to peak oil. Does anyone else feel that Americans using more oil per person then people from any other nation slightly disturbing? Is our way of life more fulfilling then say the average European, who uses half the oil that we do?

The explanation of our higher energy prices simple comes down to supply and demand. Supply has been level for about two years now, and it doesn't look like any new capacity is coming on line. Solutions such as oil shale, CTL, and biomass are years away. Demand however is steadily increasing, mostly from nations such as India and China. Higher prices will have the effect of reducing demand to some degree, however, demand for energy is highly inelastic. While you could reduce your demand for gasoline some, I'll willing to bet that most of the trips made by car in this country will happen no matter if fuel is $3, $4, or $5 per a gallon.

The solution to our energy problems will come from some sort of combination of nuclear, solar, wind, CTL, GTL, biomass, oil shale, tar sands, and maybe something else I haven't left out. However, the way we live is going to have to change also. Our SUVs, 3500sq ft homes, and unsustainable communities are going to go away or change as energy becomes costly and limited in availability.

Unfortunately, our current government, including both Democrats and Republicans have been completely ineffective in education the American public on the possibility the oil will be scarce in the near future. In fact, it is almost repulsive how politicians from both sides of the Ilse pander to the public by trying to blame oil companies for high prices, instead of suggesting that the problem might be more related to the inelastic demand for oil and the supply problems caused by fueling H2s. However, the American public is to blame also, surveys show that for every one American that believes higher gas prices are related to supply and demand issues, three believe that price increases are caused by unethical behavior.

So here is my suggestion, no matter if you believe in the near term peaking of oil or not, conservation is both the ethical and economically sensible action to take in the near term. Simple things such as replacing light-bulbs with CFLs, turn the air conditioning up a few degrees, and combining errands into one trip will save you money and help make a easier transition for everyone when energy prices really do start to rise. In the long term we need to develop more sustainable communities, public transit, high-speed rail links, and some way of transporting freight other then our interstate highway system.

 

[caliginousface]

One of the most worrying things about peak oil is that you very rarely hear any suggesting conservation as part of a solution to peak oil. Does anyone else feel that Americans using more oil per Capetian then people from any other nation slightly disturbing? Is our way of life more fulfilling then say the average European, who uses half the oil that we do?

Yeah man, 26% of the worlds oil is a lot of consumption. I agree, it is disturbing.

The solution to our energy problems will come from some sort of combination of nuclear, solar, wind, CTL, GTL, biomass, oil shale, tar sands, and maybe something else I haven't left out. However, the way we live is going to have to change also. Our SUVs, 3500sq ft homes, and unsustainable communities are going to go away or change as energy becomes costly and limited in availability.

Agreed. My sister drives a mile to the grocery store, people throw plastic bottles and aluminium cans and paper products inthe trash. All these housing tracts should be built as super efficient solar homes, not ineffcient stick and frame crap piles.

Unfortunately, our current government, including both Democrats and Republicans have been completely ineffective in education the American public on the possibility the oil will be scarce in the near future. In fact, it is almost repulsive how politicians from both sides of the Ilse pander to the public by trying to blame oil companies for high prices, instead of suggesting that the problem might be more related to the inelastic demand for oil and the supply problems caused by fueling H2s. However, the American public is to blame also, surveys show that for every one American that believes higher gas prices are related to supply and demand issues, three believe that price increases are caused by unethical behavior.

Nothing matters when energy is cheap.

So here is my suggestion, no matter if you believe in the near term peaking of oil or not, conservation is both the ethical and economically sensible action to take in the near term. Simple things such as replacing light-bulbs with CFLs, turn the air conditioning up a few degrees, and combining errands into one trip will save you money and help make a easier transition for everyone when energy prices really do start to rise. In the long term we need to develop more sustainable communities, public transit, high-speed rail links, and some way of transporting freight other then our interstate highway system.

I really don't think people see that changes need to be made until it's too late. Like another poster said, building high speed rail and restructuring our current fuel infrastructure will take time, and the time to start was years ago.

 

[flyer172r]

I don't know how accurate this is, but it was interesting

www.commutefaster.com/Energy.html

In the "political actions" column it mentions something about a leaked BP memo saying that their Alaska reserves could supply the US for 150 years. Like I said, I don't know how serious to take it, but it was interesting

I also saw an article a few weeks ago (don't have a link, sorry) saying that a new technique using nanotechnology has been developed that could double or triple the amount of oil recoverable from a field (right now only about 35% of an oil in any field is recoverable). Personally though, I'm all for a crash program to develop switchgrass based butanol. We could use switchgrass to make 100 billion gallons a year of biofuels without touching the food supply, and butanol doesn't have the big fuel efficiency drop off that ethanol has. I've also read that several auto companies are fairly close to marketing plug-in hybrids.

 

[frog_flyer]

just nuke china. demand falls, prices fall. (lets not get into what happens to the global economy... )

 

[caliginousface]

A great 27 minute audio interview, taped July 8th, with the author of a new peak oil book can be found here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leggett.html

The author is named Jeremy Leggett
His new book is: "The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe"

His bio says he is "an internationally renowned geologist and energy entrepreneur who spent the 1980s working for Big Oil, that sounds the alarm about an unprecedented crisis."

He says, "A new Manhattan Project for energy can save us if we can wake up and confront the problem directly." I hope people do wake up and this happens.

It is a good interview. Please take the time to listen,
Jet

I listened to it, and wow. You know I don't get people though. You can tell them all kinds of things to prepare for, or suggest that conservation is key to sustainability, but no one will give a damn. Why not conserve more now? Why not start building high speed efficient rail? WHY NOT SHOW HOUSING DEVELOPERS HOW BENEFICIAL PASSIVE SOLAR HEATING IS.

The cool thing many of us will start to see is high MPG diesel vehicles coming out. The gov't is to give tax breaks for these vehicles as they will be very efficient, and using cleaner burning diesel. While we're not getting off the fossil train yet, we're making progress, but slowly.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Watch oil prices in real time!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

presently $78.07

CE


Wheeeee!!

 

[SPilot]

Watch oil prices in real time!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

presently $78.07

CE


Wheeeee!!

Whooah! My energy stocks are gonna soar.

 

[flyer172r]

Whooah! My energy stocks are gonna soar.

Actually I heard earlier that today's rise in oil prices didn't carry energy stocks along with it. But who knows, it could all change tomorrow.

 

[gsrcrsx68]

Whooah! My energy stocks are gonna soar.

Yeah, maybe they'll offset your homebuilding stocks and you'll break even!

 

[jetflyer]

I decided to watch the ABC video from Australia again and realized I'm pretty dumb One of the experts in the video is Jeremy Leggett who is the author in the 27 minute interview with Jim Puplava!!

His book seems pretty good. I've skimmed it in a bookstore in an airport and thought it was ok. It's just that if you've read a couple you start to feel like you've read them all. I've read about 7 peak oil books and skimmed many of them out of the 50+ out there. They all take different approaches to the topic, some are doomers, some are optimists, some think we'll see wars, some hope for peace and cooperation, some theorize the economic consequences, and all try to give solutions.

Here are the links again:

Australia ABC video that is 13 minutes long.
Here is the link:
http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle13112.htm

A great 27 minute audio interview, taped July 8th, with the author of a new peak oil book can be found here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leggett.html
The author is named Jeremy Leggett
His new book is: "The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Global Financial Catastrophe"

One of the most interesting and amazing parts of the ABC video is what Eric Streitberg, Managing Director of Arc Energy, says he asked at the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Conference.
Eric, when he had the podium, asked at the conference for those that thought we had reached peak oil to raise their hands and 50% of the practicing petroleum industry professionals in the audience thought we were at peak oil!!

Ladies and Gentlemen that is scary! If this is true then the DOE study comes into play on what it could mean to our economy. I honestly think we'll see a bad economy and serious resource wars before this is over. Keep watching Russia, their natural gas company Gazprom, the Middle East, Venezuela, Nigeria, Colombia, China, and other players with oil or like ourselves hungry for oil. Oil is the main driver or a major part of almost everything going on. Keep watching the world. The geopolitics are going mad.

I also think the renewed interest in Global warming is a nice way to say "GET OFF OIL" without panicing people that peak oil is here.

Let's hope those 50% of petroleum professionals that think we're at peak oil are wrong or the future is going to be interesting.

Jet