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Oil at $45 per barrel !!!

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Demand destruction will keep fuel cheap even after the economies of the world rebound.

Oils real natural value is in the high teens.

Oil is plentiful. The peak oil scam was just what I said, a SCAM. Last night on BBC, a very untrustworthy news source, Russia is claiming they will run out of oil in 14-17 years. And in the same story, the person being interviewed claimed the low price of oil today was having a devastating effect on the Russian economy. It was just another source confirming the peak oil scam.
 
I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

good post but you left out the part where in your day you had to walk uphill 3 miles each way in the snow and ice to get to school.
 
With No snow boots.....................
 
Where's that peak oil alarmist jetflyer? Haven't seen him around lately. I wonder how much money he lost with his crazy bets on $200/bbl oil. :rolleyes:
 
Too bad some of the $100-plus hedges made earlier this year don't run out until sometime in 2009 so they can fully enjoy these sub-$50 prices........
 
Like how a union would want to control wages in a labor market?
Wages in a labor market have a layer of control because it takes two different sides to sign a contract. Oil prices rose because they didn't have that kind of control. Both sides (producers and buyers) were the same people, and everyone made more money the higher the price went. There was no regulating influence until the economy crashed and real demand went away. Then the same greed took over as all the individual traders tried to cut the other guys throat and sell the oil they did have at a lower price than the other trader - who was his companion in price rises just a few months earlier. Again, no controls.

HAL
 
I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

Very insightful. To quote the Great Ronald Reagan on his response the afternoon of Black Monday:
"Stocks go up and stocks go down."
 
Heyas,

Something else that is forgotten is the gas lines of the 70's.

Even with the run up in oil in the last year, there was NO shortage of actual fuel (except for the brief, localized shortage in the SE due to the hurricane). At any point during the runup, I could go out and buy gas with no line, no hassles. Hardly a shortage.

Back in the day of the 70's embargo, you could only buy gas on even/odd days (based on your license plate), and only if you had less than 1/2 tank. Even then, you'd wait in huge lines and you saw a LOT of stations with "No Gas". And a greater percentage of our fuel was domestically produced.

As an engineer, I hate ethanol. It's a crappy fuel, for any number of reasons. Methanol is no better, and butanol, which is VERY similar to gasoline in heat content, is a pain in the a$$ to make (energy sink).

With that said, the best way to lock out these kinds of run ups is with fuel competition. Someone posted a vid of a very good presentation that mentioned that if we all drove flex fuel vehicles, you remove the pricing power of OPEC, which, IMHO, is a good thing.

Nu
 

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