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Oil at $45 per barrel !!!

Linedriver

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 3, 2007
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346
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I'm no economist but the airlines should be selling the farm and hedging as much of this oil as they can, for as long as they can.

That's all I have to say about that.
 

maxblast72

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As soon as the airlines do that, there will be some major car battery technology upgrade, US gasoline consumption will drop in half, OPEC will self-destruct, and oil prices will drop into the 20's.

At those prices, some startup will grab some old 737-300's out of the desert and fill'em up with cheap oil while all the hedged airlines are locked in at $45/barrel.
 

Bavarian Chef

Registered jetBluser
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Why? It's going down to 30.
 

UnstableAviator

Dual Given.
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Hedging takes two parties, correct? One looking save money and one looking to make it?

If so, good luck getting any contracts with the current oil price deflation...
 

HAL

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I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL
 

AC560

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Dec 9, 2005
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There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Like how a union would want to control wages in a labor market?
 

propdog

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Feb 5, 2004
Posts
207
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I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

Great post!
 

BID

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Nov 14, 2004
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467
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there goes the push for, "alternative fuels" till oil goes back up again.
 

luckytohaveajob

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Joined
Nov 17, 2005
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Demand destruction will keep fuel cheap even after the economies of the world rebound.

Oils real natural value is in the high teens.

Oil is plentiful. The peak oil scam was just what I said, a SCAM. Last night on BBC, a very untrustworthy news source, Russia is claiming they will run out of oil in 14-17 years. And in the same story, the person being interviewed claimed the low price of oil today was having a devastating effect on the Russian economy. It was just another source confirming the peak oil scam.
 

LearLove

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Joined
Nov 27, 2001
Posts
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I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

good post but you left out the part where in your day you had to walk uphill 3 miles each way in the snow and ice to get to school.
 

Jetjockey

Stay thirsty my friends
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With No snow boots.....................
 

PCL_128

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Nov 21, 2002
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Where's that peak oil alarmist jetflyer? Haven't seen him around lately. I wonder how much money he lost with his crazy bets on $200/bbl oil. :rolleyes:
 

Dude

Primer oficial
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Nov 26, 2001
Posts
396
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Regarding hedges........you have to have cash for that. And lots of it.
 

JohnDoe

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Joined
May 11, 2002
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Too bad some of the $100-plus hedges made earlier this year don't run out until sometime in 2009 so they can fully enjoy these sub-$50 prices........
 

HAL

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Joined
Nov 26, 2001
Posts
733
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Like how a union would want to control wages in a labor market?
Wages in a labor market have a layer of control because it takes two different sides to sign a contract. Oil prices rose because they didn't have that kind of control. Both sides (producers and buyers) were the same people, and everyone made more money the higher the price went. There was no regulating influence until the economy crashed and real demand went away. Then the same greed took over as all the individual traders tried to cut the other guys throat and sell the oil they did have at a lower price than the other trader - who was his companion in price rises just a few months earlier. Again, no controls.

HAL
 

SEVEN

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Jan 7, 2006
Posts
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I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

Very insightful. To quote the Great Ronald Reagan on his response the afternoon of Black Monday:
"Stocks go up and stocks go down."
 

NuGuy

Ex-Commuter
Joined
May 30, 2003
Posts
2,375
Total Time
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Heyas,

Something else that is forgotten is the gas lines of the 70's.

Even with the run up in oil in the last year, there was NO shortage of actual fuel (except for the brief, localized shortage in the SE due to the hurricane). At any point during the runup, I could go out and buy gas with no line, no hassles. Hardly a shortage.

Back in the day of the 70's embargo, you could only buy gas on even/odd days (based on your license plate), and only if you had less than 1/2 tank. Even then, you'd wait in huge lines and you saw a LOT of stations with "No Gas". And a greater percentage of our fuel was domestically produced.

As an engineer, I hate ethanol. It's a crappy fuel, for any number of reasons. Methanol is no better, and butanol, which is VERY similar to gasoline in heat content, is a pain in the a$$ to make (energy sink).

With that said, the best way to lock out these kinds of run ups is with fuel competition. Someone posted a vid of a very good presentation that mentioned that if we all drove flex fuel vehicles, you remove the pricing power of OPEC, which, IMHO, is a good thing.

Nu
 
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