Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
  • Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
  • Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
  • Share the passion for aviation
  • Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun

Oil at $45 per barrel !!!

Welcome to Flightinfo.com

  • Register now and join the discussion
  • Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
  • Invite your friends
  • Share the passion of aviation
  • Friendliest aviation community on the web

Linedriver

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 3, 2007
Posts
346
I'm no economist but the airlines should be selling the farm and hedging as much of this oil as they can, for as long as they can.

That's all I have to say about that.
 
As soon as the airlines do that, there will be some major car battery technology upgrade, US gasoline consumption will drop in half, OPEC will self-destruct, and oil prices will drop into the 20's.

At those prices, some startup will grab some old 737-300's out of the desert and fill'em up with cheap oil while all the hedged airlines are locked in at $45/barrel.
 
Why? It's going down to 30.
 
Hedging takes two parties, correct? One looking save money and one looking to make it?

If so, good luck getting any contracts with the current oil price deflation...
 
I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL
 
I'm guessing the majority of people on this board are in the 20's or maybe early 30's; not old enough to have a 'broader' perspective on what happens in the world. When oil spiked this summer there were a bunch of people here screaming about 'peak oil', $200+/bbl oil, and the end of aviation, if not the world. But if you have lived through other economic ups and down as us 'more experienced' people have, you'd see that it's just another in a long string of cycles that we all go through. It can't go up that far without crashing back down again. There was no logical reason for $148bbl oil other than the greed of those that can, and do, control the market.

Yes, it probably will go up again someday, maybe in another big spike. And if so, it will inevetiably crash shortly afterward. In general though, the price will gently rise over time as normal mild inflation brings everything slowly upward.

Economic pressures are not invisible. When it becomes viable for new technologies to be pursued, manufacturers will invest in whatever is affordable and practical for powering the next generation of cars, homes, and airplanes.

Wars will happen. Economies will rise and fall. Accidents and surprises will shock, thrill, and scare you. But life goes on. Thirty years down the road you'll look around and suddenly realize that most cars are electric and remember fondly when you could pull up to a gas station, and two minutes later pull out with a full tank. Then you'll plug your car in for the night and turn out the garage lights, thinking that you don't remember one huge change, but rather a slow but steady progress from one era to another.

Just remember that humans have a great ability to adapt to adversity, whether it is physical, emotional, or economic.

HAL

Great post!
 

Latest resources

Back
Top