Oct 8 - Dl Announcement

[lowecur]

The Yahoo Board is talking about a big announcement by DL on Oct 8th. One poster is already speculating that DL will order the 100 seat jet from Embraer. General Lee said the order was sent to purchasing a few weeks ago, so it sounds like good timing.

I'll stick my neck out and go with Embraer. 50 firms for the 175, 50 firms for the 190, and 50 firms for the 195, with equal options on each.

Now all DL needs is a renegotiated contract. Hope it puts a ton of you furloughed guys back to work. Good luck.

 

[G4G5]

I agree that the ERJ is a superior product onpaper, but it is yet unproven. Relying on Embraer to meet all the numbers is pretty risky.

DAL is a Bombardier company. Their entire regional fleet plan is tied to the CRJ. To jump ship now and take on an additional fleet type, is a giant leap of faith. Especially considering DAL's conservative nature.

What sense does it make to have both the CRJ70 seater (or even the CRJ90) on the real estate and the ERJ 170? The cost to remove the CRJ fleet and replace it at this juncture makes little financial sense. The cost of operating two aircraft that do the samething makes little sense.

DAL mgt is not stupid. They know that they could make the same yeild/profit if they went to Boeing or Bombardier with the same amount of capital and said give me a deal on some new 7XYZ's or CRJ's.

Floating the rumor may be thier way of placing additional pressure on Bombardier and Boeing.

 

[Flying Freddie]

Maybe they will annouce that the TV system will be working on Song. Maybe they will announce that they will put the TV system in all the Delta aircraft. Maybe they will announce a TV system for their new EMB 190's. Maybe not.

 

[sleepy]

Having the two different types E-170 and CR7 would cost more than having one fleet type, but it would be insurance if a serious problem ever developed with one of the types. I don't think DAL will buy any of the ERJ's (they don't have the $$$ to buy anything right now anyway, at least that is what we are being told). They will convert some 737 orders to the 100 seat 737-600 aircraft. That makes more sense than buying the ERJ.

 

[rjcap]

Until there is some resolution to the mainline pilots contract I don't see why mgmt is going to commit to a 100 seat aircraft.

The real issue here is what the companies cash position is at the end of the year. Is Leo still moving towards a chap 11 filing ?

 

[lowecur]

G4G5

I don't think they intend to use the EMB as a regional product. I think they want to replace some existing mainline a/c, and be able to compete with B6 on the East Coast. These a/c could all go to Song.

Time will tell. I could be all wet on this, but it's interesting speculation.

 

[lowecur]

rj

The key for me is General Lee just yanking our chain? If the 100 seat order was sent to purchasing, then they must figure this purchase will not interfere with that process. In fact it could speed things up, since all of these a/c will be mainline. Mgt probably figures it's no different than ordering 100 736's or 100 717's. Pay will be adjusted according to size of a/c, as it is today.

Of course, it could be a faster way to chapter 11.

 

[UpNDownGuy]

Chapter 11?

Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention, but does anyone really think Delta is contemplating Chapter 11? I know American was teetering on the brink early in the year, but I thought DAL was about the most finacially secure airline around. Delta guys???????

 

[Tim47SIP]

110 seaters

I personally think that they will have to go with 717, 737, or 318's. The 90 seat CRJ was looked at for DCI (I know we cant have them) and rejected at least in it's current form, due to operating problems. It's a 70 with extra plugs. This came from Skip himself.
The ERJ is probably a great product, but as stated earlier, has not been proven yet. Additionally, the availability on the ERJ may be an issue. Also, with the purchase of smaller aircraft, operational intigration could become an issue and DALPA will do anything in it's power to stay away from that bag of worms.

 

[lowecur]

Tim

I don't think it will be any of those a/c, and here's why. The 717 is the principal a/c of a competitor and presently is an orphan. I think DL would like to make sure it stays an orphan. Also, the 717 cannot make the turn to the left coast from either ATL or CVG. It doesn't have the range. The 736 has been poorly received, and will continue to be in my opinion. The 318 is even worse.

The EMB a/c can all make the turn because of their range. Sure it's an unproven product, but they have 5 170's touring the world right now, and 2 175's being used for their certification. B6 has had ample time to look at performance/fuel consumption, as the 170 has been up and running for over a year.

DL really only has one choice if they want to compete.

 

[Darby]

I keep seeing DCI on this forum. What does it stand for?

 

[Frank Abagnale]

I keep seeing DCI on this forum. What does it stand for?

Delta Connection INC

 

[rjcap]

Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention, but does anyone really think Delta is contemplating Chapter 11? I know American was teetering on the brink early in the year, but I thought DAL was about the most finacially secure airline around. Delta guys???????

Yes.

The mere threat of Chap 11 gives Leo a great deal of leverage in renegotiating the mainline pilot contract and eliminating scope. Thats why the 100 seat jet is a big question mark. No scope and the jet goes to DCI.

The mainline pilots have the choice of dealing with Leo or a bankruptcy judge. The BK judge will not be to kind to the mainline pilot contract nor the 5 billion underfunded pension.

 

[NYRANGERS]

Yes.

The mere threat of Chap 11 gives Leo a great deal of leverage in renegotiating the mainline pilot contract and eliminating scope. Thats why the 100 seat jet is a big question mark. No scope and the jet goes to DCI.

The mainline pilots have the choice of dealing with Leo or a bankruptcy judge. The BK judge will not be to kind to the mainline pilot contract nor the 5 billion underfunded pension.

I don't think a chap 11 filing is on the near horizon. Here is an excerpt from the Cincinnati Enquirer on September 21, 2003..................

"There's no question that in the last year, Delta's primary focus has been on our financial performance ... and what that did is take our eye off the customer service ball," Delta chairman and chief executive officer Leo Mullin said. "That was my only year in 61/2 years at Delta that this has happened, but it was something we had to do given the grave uncertainty and our commitment to avoid bankruptcy.

"Now that we have sufficiently removed the specter of bankruptcy, we've made the decision to really get back on track with our customer service."