Not good for the Southwest Poolies....

[ultrarunner]

If I were a poolie, I wouldn't get too worked up until I actually saw the numbers after the Feb 9 date.

IMO, from a practical standpoint, we're prly not talking a ton of folks.

And of those folks, we're prly only talking the guys up to 64 years old or so. I can't believe anyone would come back for just a year or less...

AND, it's my opinion that those wanting to come back would be the folks that won't have to commute, right? So that's the folks living in the junior bases.

I wouldn't imagine the retired folks would come back to commute to the most junior base in the system.

I think all that pretty much erodes any massive numbers of folks flocking back to yank gear for a couple of years at the bottom of the seniority list and bottom of the pay scale.

 

[Mookie]

I'm not a financial wizard or anything...

but if someone put $8000 into a index fund, instead of paying for a type rating, how much would it be worth in 10 years...roughly? I"m just thinking b/c I work at an airline with somewhat lower pay rates, but an A and B plan, better route system (opinion), better bases, and for me, better quality of life.

i never had an interview with southwest, i applied, but never got called and they were my number 2-3 choice anyways, so this is just an excercize to see if all things are said and done, with my seniority, how much more/less would a career started at the same time be worth comparatively.

i'm bummed for my bud's in the pool. this is not cool.

Mookie

 

[Phil O'Sopher]

If I were a poolie, I wouldn't get too worked up until I actually saw the numbers after the Feb 9 date.

IMO, from a practical standpoint, we're prly not talking a ton of folks.

And of those folks, we're prly only talking the guys up to 64 years old or so. I can't believe anyone would come back for just a year or less...

AND, it's my opinion that those wanting to come back would be the folks that won't have to commute, right? So that's the folks living in the junior bases.

I wouldn't imagine the retired folks would come back to commute to the most junior base in the system.

I think all that pretty much erodes any massive numbers of folks flocking back to yank gear for a couple of years at the bottom of the seniority list and bottom of the pay scale.

I agree with the above. A majority of retirees are in the Texas area and are, with all due and considerable respect, in for a rude re-awakening when they are commuting around the country, trying to get some sleep in a crash pad so they can meet their reserve RAP to sit in the right seat at first year rates. With the slowdown in hiring, they are looking at doing that for a year or two. The FO's job has changed quite a bit over the last few years and will not be what most of the retired Captains had in mind. It will require a rare adjustment of expectations that I believe most pilots are incapable of. I think a number will come back but decide it's not what they thought it would be. Time will tell.

 

[vixin]

Mookie a good rule of thumb is the rule of 72. Take you interrest rate divide 72 by that and thats how long it would take to double your money.

EX: 72/7.2% = 10 So it would take 10 years to double $8000 at 7.2% or 7.2 years to double that money at 10%. Then it would compund. So that initial $8000 over 30 years can be worth $64,000 at an average of 7.2% per year. This is just a little wag.

 

[ultrarunner]

I bet less than 100 show for an interview. Of that number, 75 get rehired. And of that number, 10 no-show, and 5 medical out before class.....a few more will walk off the job when they realize preflights through puddles of glycol are no fun.

I don't think anyone will apply that has been out long enough to require a complete indoc-initial training.

My money is on 50 retired folks actually coming online.

If I were a poolie, I wouldn't sweat it one bit!

 

[Beech Balls]

Well....some of us are not livin' it up yet, runnin' around in old T-props..
.....and we're anxious to be flying the guppy we payed the type rating for.
I can't eat Ramen noodles for another year dammit!
I hope 2008 goes fast....

 

[Dude]

As is with most change in the industry these responses are understandable but impulsive and short-sighted. First, the website only mention the date for a deadline to submit an application not an interview date or guarantee of a job. Second, the current state of affairs in the airline industry requires that our response to changes are measured and cleverly calculated. There isn't a single individual that truly knows the effect of age 65 on the rest of the sub-60 workforce. It can be assumed that delays and stagnation will be the flavor of this cycle but I caution everyone to consider that this business is very dynamic and will likely be a lot different in the few years to come. I do not contest the fact that many pilots will get a screwing, but I will suggest that those individuals will most likely have their butts handed to them by another company and not the old farts sticking around another five years. Many are also assuming that most, if not all, of the old guys are going to stick around until 65. I doubt that. Just imagine someone deciding that they'll stick it out for a few more years and then fast forward one year and the scenario looks like this: Day two of a three-day, just starting his/her day, A flight attendant (very gay and militant) tells the Captain that they ain't serving because they looked at the wx and decided that it will be too bumpy only after bitching about how full they are going to be all day, 5 wheelchairs that are boarding as slowly as they eat at Shoney's, +FZDZSNPLTSRA, half of the rampers called in sick, station is down to 1 deice truck with 6 departures withinn an hour of each other, 2.5 hour ground stop to LAS because its BKN150 OVC250 and 6SM, and Hillary just implemented a tax hike that has his/her old ass now working like a Hebrew slave for about 15% less than he was making a year ago. My bet is that would be the last day of his career. Most guys I fly with that are approaching 60 had rather fly their Champ in the afternoon and take their motorhome out on the weekends, not fly and put up with 5 more years of BS. I am not particularly excited about age 65 myself but given this industry I am going to sit back and observe the next year. My guess is in 6 months age 65 will be as relevant as Richard Branson taking over the world. If you're in the pool, just relax and don't worry about the geezers. How many do you think want to commute to OAK, pull gear, and have $hitty vacation and work holidays?

 

[PropPiedmont]

Something else to remember is that all these plus 60 guys have no reserve experience. In their previous 20-30 year careers, they never once sat reserve. Not as an FO and not as a Captain.

Being on reserve might shock these guys more than being in the right seat.

 

[Flyarcticcat]

I bet less than 100 show for an interview. Of that number, 75 get rehired. And of that number, 10 no-show, and 5 medical out before class.....a few more will walk off the job when they realize preflights through puddles of glycol are no fun.

I don't think anyone will apply that has been out long enough to require a complete indoc-initial training.

My money is on 50 retired folks actually coming online.

If I were a poolie, I wouldn't sweat it one bit!

That would equal my guess as well. Only the ones who live in Vegas or OAK. But if 50 take the job that is half of the guys we are going to hire this year. I feel for you poolies, hang in there and maybe we will have an improved contract before you get here.

 

[Bigoober]

So is this being called Reserve Appreciation?

I agree, looks like a rude awakening coming up.