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Not DisappoinTED

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"UAL could have kept the same paint job and just lowered the fare to compete on the vacation routes. Instead people have to become with a completely new airline."

UAL did NOT want to "confuse" the customers with a "UAL Shuttle, or CAL lite. They WANTED a differant name. It also seems that the typical pax WANTS a totally differant airlines these days...

"UAL has the cost of supporting it's vast infa structure. You are still paying the maint, baggage, reservation yada yada the same as mainline"

That VAST infrastructure SAVES money. The cost of TK, and WHQ is divided by MORE seats than at F9 or Blu.

"Jetblue has a much lower cost basis, they generate a much higher ratio of tickets on the internet,"

Which is why TED has a simplified three fare structure...

"It's much harder to consider this a break even when LUV and B6 cap their fares at approx $300. That tells me the most you can charge for the TED seat is $300. I have to believe that you can do much better charging a lower fare on the UAL flight and then letting the occasional walk up pay the greater fare"

TED fares are capped at $300 also. The market HAS changed. HP used to be UAL's biggest customer. Now they require their employees to fly the cheapest airline, PERIOD. Before TED, UAL matched FRNT with 138 seats and a 72% LF, now with TED, they match the FARES with 156 seats and a 82% LF. Does this NOT make sense?

"You just can't prove that those additional 18 seats at the rock bottom fares generate enough to pay the cost of operating an airline with in an airline (marketing TED, cost of coversion, yada yada)"

Hmmm, Identical coach seats, jets that were due a paintjob and an incredibly inexpensive marketing campaign.... We'll just agree to disagree.

"Can UAL FF's use TED for thier points?"

ABSOLUTELY, you can use TED awards to go to hawaii, which is a huge advantage over the competition.
 
Next to a few flights that Spirit operates out of ORD, this is the first significant emergence of a LCC at ORD--

I think AWA considers itself a LCC, and they have 9 departures a day from ORD.
 
LCC within a Major ?

Funny, a lot of critics said " change or die" Hmmm, now that there is change and maybe a little conviction to make it work, everyone is saying " No way can it work. Shuttle was just turning the corner of profitability. Some idiot executive jumped the gun and overreacted cutting out operations that were deemed distracting. Wonder how things would be today had they decided to expand Shuttle like crazy and protect market share rather than shrinking ? I am no expert, unlike quite a few pilots on these boards, however I do see a genuine effort to do something to grow market share and create new found interest. What is American doing ? Song was a good idea, they just don't have the costs down yet so it is not working. UAL is a LCC, just ask any of the remaining 7000+ pilots that still are flying there. Give it time. Most of you negative, all for me and my pefrect airline bozos cannot even realize what is happening to the industry as a whole. Prediction - Senior Airline Captain pay will settle out around 125K a year when all of the undercutting, upstart wonder airline debuts have wrung the last reasonable penny from this profession. Southwest was the model, now they are some of the highest paid pilots, think that will last long ??? I don't.
 
Re: LCC within a Major ?

P3-Adub said:
Prediction - Senior Airline Captain pay will settle out around 125K a year when all of the undercutting, upstart wonder airline debuts have wrung the last reasonable penny from this profession. Southwest was the model, now they are some of the highest paid pilots, think that will last long ??? I don't.

Sad but true. Most view us as overpaid bus drivers.

G4G5, back on topic.
I think that you view TED's CASM as being too high to make a profit. I have no idea where the breakeven/profit point is for TED. However, if you think about TED CASM vs Mainline UAL CASM, you've got to remember that additional seats on board the aircraft lowers CASM. TED aircraft are also turned more quickly for a higher utilization rate. The higher utilization enables the fixed costs associated with operating the aircraft to be spread over a greater number of ASMs, again lowering CASM. Needless to say, the variable costs (crew, fuel, mx) remains fairly constant.
Time will tell if TED is profitable. If it's not, rest assured that it will go the way of the Shuttle operation (although Shuttle was successful in containing Southwest's growth on the west coast).
The problem with our first class seating is that we're no longer getting the revenue premiums that we did during the 90s; many (most) of the butts filling the seats in FC are either upgrades, SAs, or nonrevs. This is especially true of the destinations that TED is flying to.
 
Speaking of CASM, it is often assumed that the CASM for an operation such as "Ted" is the same as the mainlne CASM. It's not. Even the CASM of the identical aircraft in the same airline can vary greatly depending on stage length, where the flight originated and where it lands. If you throw in additional seats, drop first class amenities, increase utilization, decrease turn times, maximized the number of departures from the gates serving "Ted" and operate on leisure market airports which typically have lower fees, the CASM for those particular flights will be much less than the mainline overall. I wouldn't be at all surprised if "Ted's" CASM was significantly less than the rest of the airline.
 
The biggest problem I see with TED so far is that are not doing anything that people here are preaching.

I had a buddy of mine call me looking for the best way to get out to SFO from NY. I asked him which airlines he tried and then asked him, "Did you try Ted?" His next words were, "Who." Now this guy works on Wall Street for one of the largest banks in the world. Granted he does not travel much on personal business but I was still surprised. He called me back and gave me an ear full. Apparently when he went to book a Ted flight all it did was refer him back to the original United flight that he had originally checked. To quote him, "how retarTED."

I felt embarrassed so I checked a few thing out for myself.

I went to TED's web site and check out what my buddy said, it was true. Then I checked the, "where TED flies to" web icon. I noticed that TED does not service JFK-SFO, so maybe I wasn't being fair. Then I decided to price out a destination that TED does fly, ORD-MCO (3/31-4/7). I was shocked to see what came up.
The first fare offered was ABOVE $300 dollars. It was $351.70
Second thing, the fare was on UAL and not on TED flt# 590/421
Third thing, the cheapest fare was$253 BUT it was a connection flight. The TED web site actually booked me on USAir flt #2185 connecting through PIT onto #3093.

When I checked the same dates, times and destinations on the United web site. The only fare offered was the $351.70 fare, ON UAL equipment. What a great idea keep the person on UAL equipment and keep the money.

To quote my buddy, this is "retarTED"! If you think I am FOS try it for yourself. Some of the folks here need to understand, when you say things like 3 tier pricing and fares capped at $300, you are doing nothing but drinking a big glass of mgt.'s TED Kool Aid. It DOES NOT work that way.

So, then I asked myself if I book a flight on Song does it work the same way as TED's web site. The answer is, NO! When I choose JFK as a departure point, the web site instantly shifted destinations to list only those served by Song out of JFK. Secondly when I went to price a flight, they listed ONLY Song flights. They did not list Delta's or especially USAir's.

Which airline do you think will be building better brand loyalty? Better familiarity with it's product?

Which product will piss people off when they go to the web site to find out that they are being routed through PIT on an airline other than TED?
 
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My understanding is that Ted flights are capped at 300 only on routes that overlap F9's, and only originating in Denver.

edit: The 300 is the max for a one way walk-up fare.
 
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Originally posted by G4G5
To quote my buddy, this is "retarTED"! If you think I am FOS try it for yourself. Some of the folks here need to understand, when you say things like 3 tier pricing and fares capped at $300, you are doing nothing but drinking a big glass of mgt.'s TED Kool Aid. It DOES NOT work that way.

Holy S#$& I actually agree with what an American Airlines pilot has to say! This Ted debacle is a poorly executed paint job and press release. Obviously Tague or his subordinates never bothered to check the Ted website before putting Ted into action. I am interested in how T-bags and Andy defend this.
 
"Then I decided to price out a destination that TED does fly, ORD-MCO (3/31-4/7). I was shocked to see what came up."

What, are you a flight attendant or something?!
:p YOU GOT REDIRECTED. TED'S FIRST FLIGHT FROM ORD ISN'T UNTIL MAY 24!! I will grant you that the route is shown on the map. UAL is showing all ANNOUNCED routes. Try your game again, this time notice the UNITED logo. You were booking a UNITED flight. In any case, realize that 299 does NOT include PFC. SWA plays the same pricing game. But agin, do the math. three fares, 82% load factor, and lower ASM costs than mainline. And consider the 82% LF is for FEB and MAR. Not exactly blockbuster months traditionally...
 
T-Bags,
Nice try brushing it aside becasue of the date.

So, am I too understand that it is perfectably acceptable with you, that when I went to the TED web site and look up a fare that they are advertising as a TED route, they:

Priced me a seat aboe $300
Did not comply with the pricing tier policy
Wanted to book me on USAir

Or would the smarter thing be to do like Song does?
 
G4, it's not yet a TED route. How clear do I have to be? Pull up DEN-MCO (A ted route...) You will see three selectable fares. Keep in mid the $299 DOES NOT INCLUDE PFC's!!! That is the SAME policy as SWA's and FRNT's. Kind of like buying a shirt that's marked $19.99. If you go into the store with a 20, you'll come out empty handed. Would you prefer that the TED site have redirected you to Lufthansa? TED redirects you to UAL if they DON'T fly that route. Humor me, go to the ted site and try ORD to FRA (that's frankfurt for you LCC's). Guess what, Ted doesn't go there. But it WILL give you a itenerary AND a $3000 price (well above Ted pricing...).
 
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mach zero said:
Originally posted by G4G5


Holy S#$& I actually agree with what an American Airlines pilot has to say! This Ted debacle is a poorly executed paint job and press release. Obviously Tague or his subordinates never bothered to check the Ted website before putting Ted into action. I am interested in how T-bags and Andy defend this.

Ouch Mach, where's the love?
 
T Bags
G4, it's not yet a TED route. How clear do I have to be?

G4G5
It's on the, "Where TED flys ICON" on the TED web site! How clear do I have to be. The general public is not familiar with when an airline institutes service. Which leads me to point two, they are selling service for it on the TED web site. When you purchase a ticket on the TED web site which airline do you think you should be flying?
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pull up DEN-MCO (A ted route...) You will see three selectable fares. Keep in mid the $299 DOES NOT INCLUDE PFC's!!! That is the SAME policy as SWA's and FRNT's. Kind of like buying a shirt that's marked $19.99. If you go into the store with a 20, you'll come out empty handed. Would you prefer that the TED site have redirected you to Lufthansa? TED redirects you to UAL if they DON'T fly that route.

G4G5
No, what I expect the TED site to do is exactly what the Song/Jetblue/Luv web site do. Sell tickets on their airlines to destinations that they serve. What a concept. Do me a favor and try out the Song web site and then compare it to TED, their is no comparision,

You can't advertise that you only charge $300 and then offer a $350 fare on the TED web site.
 
G4G5 said:
No, what I expect the TED site to do is exactly what the Song/Jetblue/Luv web site do. Sell tickets on their airlines to destinations that they serve. What a concept. Do me a favor and try out the Song web site and then compare it to TED, their is no comparision,

You can't advertise that you only charge $300 and then offer a $350 fare on the TED web site.

OK, here's my feeble defense of what TED's website is doing. Since TED doesn't fly to those destinations, rather than give no price quote, it gives price quotes for United mainline and Star Alliance carriers. I realize that some will criticize this decision, but at least UAL is trying to capture maximum revenue through TED's online booking system.
 
Andy,

That is what I thought. My only concern is:
They should not be refering UAL pax to any other carrier. Even if it is a Code share/Alliance partner. This does nothing but dilute the TED brand.

I have no problem with them offering a UAL price, just tell people it's UAL. It's not what I like, notice Song does NOT refer you to DAL. You are either an LCC/airline with in a airline or you are not. Trying to have it both ways does very little to build and support the TED brand.

You may think I am complaing about TED. Again I want to see UAL survive. IMHO, TED is not helping the cause. They need to copy/run it like JetBlue/LUV/SONG, now is not the time to be re-inventing the wheel.
 
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United will claim/Is claiming success for TED as the flights are, for the most part, replacing already full flights they had. Doesn't mean they won't be ultimately successful though. Now that UAL has the employees working for cheap, they need to manage the beast in a lean and mean way.
 
The focus has to be on keeping the domestic fleet up in the air as much as possible. On the big iron flying to say Tokyo or London, you are only going to get so much utilization because your hands are tied with the long legs. United has to keep the 737s and 319/320s moving, and they are. A big break management got to go ahead with Ted is Airbus guys are making the same as 737 guys. So a pilot flying a Ted configured plane makes the same as the 737-500 guy with 46 less seats. This was a good week for United. The monthly BK filing shows UAL put 205 million in the bank in Feb for a cash balance of 2.5 biliion. Not bad considering that the PlaneBusiness folks predicted a 40 to 50 million shortfall and not making the BK loan covenants for the first time. The House and Senate kicked into high gear starting last Tuesday on a final pension reform bill that Bush has indicated he will definitely sign, despite intense lobbying from the LCCs. This bill will probably become law around the middle of April, and this is the main thing the ATSB is waiting on. With that boards recent action on USAir, I don't have much doubt which way that decision will go. Barring a major terrorist event, looks like United will exit BK around August with 4 to 5 billion dollars.
 
skykid said:
Barring a major terrorist event, looks like United will exit BK around August with 4 to 5 billion dollars.

The money that UAL has drawn on DIP financing will need to be repaid. I believe that UAL owes somewhere in the neighborhood of $700 mil in DIP financing. I don't know if UAL has any bills that have gone unpaid during BK; that would also draw down UAL's cash position.
However, there have been rumors (they're just that, rumors) that UAL has lined up an additional $2Bil in unsecured loans on top of ATSB financing. That would give UAL a huge amount of cash to make post-chap 11 purchases for expansion (rumor also has it that's Tilton's plan upon emergence). Again, it's just a rumor, and we all know that most airline rumors never come to fruition.
 
Andy, I was not including the restricted cash in my estimate - it is close to 700 million. Also, there just aren't a lot of unpaid bills, contrary to what people want to believe. I would not count on that rumor being true! I certainly don't think that would be a good idea, even if it were true. More good news today - a 7th daily round trip from JFK to LAX starting Jun3, tickets on sale today. It is a 767 with 10 first class, 33 business, 125 coach. No fire sale, no major hubs closed, lots of new destinations, and increased frequency. The cost of oil is the big bad news out there. Only SWA had the guts and pure genuis to really hedge up big, so all the other majors are pretty much in the hurt locker together on fuel. I have no idea how hedged AirTran, Jetblue, Frontier, or the other LCCs are, anyone know?
 
skykid said:
I have no idea how hedged AirTran, Jetblue, Frontier, or the other LCCs are, anyone know?

JB is hedged at 45% for the year, second only to SWA at their 86% (or 80 something)

C yaaa
 

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