Data
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- Mar 15, 2002
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Wake up guys! Skywest will be here in force by the winter, and we will still be shrinking.
I think you'll see more of Mesaba and Pinnacle than you will Skywest.
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Wake up guys! Skywest will be here in force by the winter, and we will still be shrinking.
Even at the majors, they've endured furloughs, pay cuts, tighter work rule adjustments and many other downward pressures.
To include whole fleets parked with thousands furloughed and downgraded all the whilst during the early 2000's. But heh, at least ASA offered DAL furloughees a chance to start at the bottom again....
Sorry to say it guys, but I believe ASA is on the way out. I've been trying to figure out why we are furloughing and downgrading when we aren't doing that much less flying than last fall/winter. On average last winter we had around 700 flights per day. We are supposed to take a "major" hit to our flying this winter, however I'll be surprised if we don't wind up with around 700 flights per day. So, why the furlough? Well our contract is pretty tight when it comes to Skywest taking our planes, but there is not one mention of them taking our flying. Have you noticed that Skywest hasn't furloughed a single pilot yet? As we start to slide into winter I would be willing to bet my meager salary that you will start to see Skywest 200's and 700's in ATL. The excuse will be that hey, we didn't get cut as much as we thought we were going to, and now we don't have the resources to operate the schedule Delta wants us to, so we are going to let Skywest fill in for us for the time being. Then come next April, those twenty 200's that our "Senior" management is working so hard to place will o bye bye, and then they will want to furlough more. If they are unable to furlough past the no furlough clause, then they will just patiently wait until the hiring boom kicks off, then ASA will wither on the vine until it finally just goes away. Crazy you say? Look at Comair. Since Skywest bought ASA we have done nothing but shrink. We were to get 20 700's from Delta, they went to Skywest instead. Then they took five 700's trying to break our will on the contract. Then there was the 19 900's that were coming to ASA, but they also went to Skywest. That's 44 airplanes to Skywest, not to mention 12 ATR's, and now 20 200's. SEVENTY SIX AIRCRAFT!!!!! That is just three years of work from our leadership at Skywest. If you figure five crews per plane, that's 760 pilots. Skywest has about 1000 pilots more than ASA. The writing is on the wall folks! It had been my intention to hang up my hat here at ASA, I've got six in, and after all of this current industry bullsh!t works itself out I'll be closer to ten, but I don't believe that there will be an ASA left to work for. I've talked to a few others here, and they were all starting to think about this situation the same as I am, so what is the opinion of the Flight Info crowd of ASA pilots? This is after all the ASA board.
ASA will survive. We're a great regional model. One of the few not being hammered by the FAA. ASA has only lost a net of 2 planes so far. Hopefully you're wrong.
Well, let's be honest here. That's what we are "supposed" to do.
We all know regionals are only cheap if the pilots don't stay long. Once you hit year $106/hr you're making close to what a 737 captain makes, but you're generating a lot less revenue. Pinnacle has historically been a pretty lousy place to work, and therefore most guys bail out to greener grass. However, it keeps their costs down, and allows them to expand.
Fortunately, ASA has always been a pretty decent place to work, and more and more people are planning on staying here until they turn 65. Unfortunately, that -- not any gains we make in our contract -- will kill us. We could work for sub-Mesa pay, but if the bulk of our pilot group is year 12+ then we are dead. (Furloughing, by the way, won't help us with our costs.)
All the Pinnacle pilots will do by voting in their contract will be to reinforce that it's not a career airline, and pilots will continue to leave there at the first opportunity. That in turn keeps their costs down, and they will continue to grow... until one day they finally stand up for themselves and demand a decent contract. Then, just like ASA, their pilot group will get more and more senior.
Say ASA did the same thing in our next contract, for the sake of argument. If we signed off on a raw deal under the guise that it will make us cheap so we can grow, it still wouldn't do anything. We have too senior of a pilot group for it to matter.
Look at Comair -- they took huge paycuts, gave back all their trophy contract gains, and they're still getting shrunk into oblivion. Payrates aren't the problem there (they're cheaper than us) but their average longevity is killer.
Longevity, my friends, is our problem. Unfortunately, there's no answer as long as our business model is to compete for fee-for-departure flying.
Not exciting news, but closer to the truth than anything else on this thread.Things are not as bad as you fear. All Delta flying is down about 10%; ASA's flying is down about 10%. The sky is not falling. When the economy eventually rebounds and the public starts demanding more flying, we will be okay.
Would you rather your scenario unfold of Skywest invading Atlanta or Delta buying us back? Because that is the latest rumor in the GO. Personally, I'll take the former over the latter.
I don't wish for any of this depressingly bad stuff to happen, I'm just telling you what I see. We have done nothing but shrink since the Skywest acquisition, true or false? Are there any protections in our contract that prevent Skywest from doing our flying? Sure they can't take the planes, but they have several aircraft available from the Midwest side. Up until about two weeks ago, I wanted to stay at ASA, but it just keeps getting worse. If you don't believe me about the increase in red arrow days due to swine flu for the winter, go ask one of the chief pilots, thats who I heard it from. I'm not making this ******************** up!
ASA has lost 2 planes and neither was pilot error.701EV
for those who haven't heard, the local faa is currently out for blood on this issue, so you need to write up broken airplanes for their sake.
that being said, this isn't yesterday's asa. Things are not as bad as you fear. All delta flying is down about 10%; asa's flying is down about 10%. The sky is not falling. When the economy eventually rebounds and the public starts demanding more flying, we will be okay. Burning the place down is the worst thing we could do now. Relax and go get yourself a beer.
The only way EV is going anywhere is if SKW allows DAL to amend their contract. EV is shrinking to 500 flights a day this fall. It sucks, but I am sure that if EV goes anywhere it will be in to a merged group with SKW.
Also we have lost a/c N706EV sitting in BTR never to fly again so that's a net loss of 3...It was never replaced although we were told it would. SH said numerous times they were trying to source one, mainly from Horizon (that didn't happen) and if not then they would ask DL for an additional -900 instead and that didn't happen either.I think they mean actual loss/gain of current planes (ie ATRs, 900s). And, as for accidents, ASA actually has lost 3 planes (all E120s). remember the E120 down in Brazil?
The sooner you accept the fact that regionals exist at the will of their trunk carriers, the sooner you will accept the month to month fluctuations in your airline's flying. A regional pilot group cannot control its destiny in regards to what flying it gets from its trunk carrier; therefore, pilots should not get upset when airplanes and routes come and go. Instead, they should make the decision to stay and accept the changes or they should leave. Either way Delta will keep adjusting the DCI flying to best suit their needs.
So if I'm Jerry, and I know that I need to merge my two airlines, but gosh, I really don't want any unions {I'm Morman after all} and my guys have voted one down three times! What do I do? Well, I can shrink the airline with the union, and destroy their gumption, all the while awarding my non-union morman brothers in Christ! Now when I merge the two together I'll have 3000 happy non-union pilots against 1000 unhappy union pilots! Now I don't have to worry about that pesky union any more.The only way EV is going anywhere is if SKW allows DAL to amend their contract. EV is shrinking to 500 flights a day this fall. It sucks, but I am sure that if EV goes anywhere it will be in to a merged group with SKW.
Are yall finally starting to see the picture a little clearer? And Texx, I'm starting to think you are management, If all of these guys are going to be offline in November, why do we need red arrow days for them to go to training in September? We have been told repeatedly that come September there would be very few red arrow days, 17 is not very few.
The only way EV is going anywhere is if SKW allows DAL to amend their contract. EV is shrinking to 500 flights a day this fall. It sucks, but I am sure that if EV goes anywhere it will be in to a merged group with SKW.
So if I'm Jerry, and I know that I need to merge my two airlines, but gosh, I really don't want any unions {I'm Morman after all} and my guys have voted one down three times! What do I do? Well, I can shrink the airline with the union, and destroy their gumption, all the while awarding my non-union morman brothers in Christ! Now when I merge the two together I'll have 3000 happy non-union pilots against 1000 unhappy union pilots! Now I don't have to worry about that pesky union any more.
Are yall finally starting to see the picture a little clearer? And Texx, I'm starting to think you are management, If all of these guys are going to be offline in November, why do we need red arrow days for them to go to training in September? We have been told repeatedly that come September there would be very few red arrow days, 17 is not very few.
I've believed this for some time now. I have to figure, you are closer to the truth than many would believe.