Redmeat said:
The "big rig" he is flying is probably a CRJ.
No kidding, and that is probably as far as he will ever get... PilotYip and his same old song... "2007 hiring boom"... Silly little man, haven't you seen, Oil topping $70 a barrel, Many, MANY airlines already in or on the verge of Chapter 11 (a couple will probably go Chap 7)... The market will be flooded with highly qualified guys... But yes kids, skip college and go fly for some rat a$$ed freight operator in an old rat-a$$ed TJ (Turbo-Jet) so in 2007 you can still be stuck at the rat a$$ed freight operator and have no other options except to continue to work at the rat a$$ed freigh operator...
"Past Performance is no Guarantee of Future Results"... Just because 1997 and 1987 were hiring booms is absolutely no idication that 2007 will be a hiring boom... Things are VERY different today than they were in 1995 (well since 2007 is going to be just like 1997 & 1987 then 2005 must be just like 1995 & 1985, right?)...
Let's review the differences between now and then:
Nearly a dozen airlines in Chap 11...
Several more on the doorstep of Chap 11...
Airlines loosing millions of $$ per day, EACH...
Hurricane Katrina hits the main US Oil portal...
Oil at $70 a barrel... and rising...
Gas at nearly $3.50/gal... Nearly $6.00/gal in Atlanta...
Fuel shortages imminant due to pipeline/refinery shutdowns...
Airlines with thousands on furlough...
Several airlines wanting to furlough more pilots (furloughing is the opposite of a "hiring boom" last time I checked)...
The TSA (need I say more?)...
U.S. Economy still very "soft", skyrocketing energy costs will soften it much further...
Northwest Airlines wants to furlough 1,200 more pilots, if they furloughed them today (which won't happen today, obviously) and started recalls in 6 months from today (unlikely) at a nominal rate of 50 pilots per month (unlikely) it would take them 24 months to recall all the pilots furloughed today, and then another 10 months to recall the 500 or so they currently have on furlough before they could even think of hiring from the street... So that would be 40 months (absolute minimum) from today... September 2005 + 40 months = January 2009 which would be a "best case" scenario... A more realistic timeline would take 9 months to furlough the 1,200 pilots, the most senior pilot furloughed would remain on furlough at least 9 months, recalls of 40 pilots per month on and off to account for attrition and other factors would put the total recall closer to street hiring somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011...
In addition, Northwest has said for every $0.01 jet fuel rises costs them $50 million more per year in fuel costs... Well last week I filled up my car for $2.69/gal and last night on my way home, gas prices were $3.39/gal, which is an increase in one week of $0.70 per gallon... Now let's assume wholesale jet fuel rose 1/2 this amount, or $0.35 per gallon... 35 x 50 = $1,750,000,000.00 per year in additional cost for Northwest airlines alone... Hope they have a lot of money tree's up there in MSP...
Hey, I hope I'm wrong about all this, but I think it's time to take off the rose colored glasses and see the world for what it is...
Go to college, do well, have a back up plan... Today a college degree is like a high school degree was 30 years ago, a LOT of good jobs require one... Inside and outside of aviation... Does having a college degree make you a better pilot (stick and rudder skills)? Nope, but if there are two candidates for a job and the only difference is a college degree, I'd rather be the one with the degree...