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NJA projected upgrade time

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Its hard to figure that out right now. It will probably be around two years. And for most that upgrade in the next 5 years, you will probably be stuck flying a Class 1 aircraft for a long time. We are receiving more smaller aircraft that larger ones.
Hope that helps.
 
Are you talking about from the time you get the bid til you actually finish training?? :laugh: That could be a long time too!
 
Widespread - just my opinion, but the G150's weren't going to be coming very quickly from what I heard, so I don't think it would slow down upgrade very much. And of course, NetJets is supposed to be very anxious to get airframes, so maybe some new ones are going to be announced very soon.

One kicker in the "time to upgrade" game is how many pilots will retire when the second bonus payment goes out later this year. That could get a number of older pilots to finally call it a career.

Maybe someone should start a pool on when the first post-ratification new-hire will get awarded upgrade. :cool:
 
Many of the "older" pilots I have flown with have indicated that the bonus check really isn't the issue.....many will retire from here once they hit 65 for medical benefit reasons....can't blame them......

I'd be looking at actual age as a better indication as to what the retirement rate is goiong to be around here.....

Still with the nnumber of planes expected on the property in the next few years there is going to be a need for Captains......a need that will be filled by pilots hired within the past 3-4 years. Once they have upgraded, today's new hires have a shot.
 
I guess it will be interesting to see what happens in December '06 and January '07. I've heard that both the company and the union are projecting a sizable increase in retirements after the next payout. We shall see...
 
G200 Guy said:
Its hard to figure that out right now. It will probably be around two years.
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Not a chance.

Do the math. About 62% of the seniority list is PIC. If they hire 450 this year and average 300 a year (with roughly 2225 pre CBA pilots) it will be a minimum of 4-5 years. And thats only if the hiring continues at those rates.
 
LostComm said:
Not a chance.

Do the math. About 62% of the seniority list is PIC. If they hire 450 this year and average 300 a year (with roughly 2225 pre CBA pilots) it will be a minimum of 4-5 years. And thats only if the hiring continues at those rates.
Click to expand...

If only life happened in a vaccuum such as this then analytical thinking like this would be dead on. Welcome to aviation where a company has NO ability to "tweak hiring and upgrades; they merely have an on off switch for the entire water hydrant.
 
FLYLOW22 said:
If only life happened in a vaccuum such as this then analytical thinking like this would be dead on. Welcome to aviation where a company has NO ability to "tweak hiring and upgrades; they merely have an on off switch for the entire water hydrant.
Click to expand...

Precisely.

My example is likely a best case scenario.

They are having a hard time pushing this years 450 hiring target through the training process. And the likelihood that they will need 300 a year, per year, for the next 4 years is probably a pipe dream.

So if it's as Flylow22 says (that they have only an on off switch) then a few "switched off" years will drop the average below my theoretical scenario illistrated above.

If you are planning your life on a four year upgrade, you may be very disappointed in my opinion.
 
LostComm said:
If you are planning your life on a four year upgrade, you may be very disappointed in my opinion.
Click to expand...

"How long is the upgrade" is one of the most pointless questions that could be asked in this business. Things can and do change on a day to day basis. How many different places have we seen go from hiring to furlough seemingly from day to the next ??? One nice economic recession is all it will take for things to come to a screeching halt. Anyone that claims to have a good estimate is merely just pulling it out of their a$$. Some can pull it out with a bit more flair than others, but the result is still always someone's stinking wild arse guess....
 
Cute kids, H25b! :)
 
h25b said:
"How long is the upgrade" is one of the most pointless questions that could be asked in this business. Things can and do change on a day to day basis. How many different places have we seen go from hiring to furlough seemingly from day to the next ??? One nice economic recession is all it will take for things to come to a screeching halt. Anyone that claims to have a good estimate is merely just pulling it out of their a$$. Some can pull it out with a bit more flair than others, but the result is still always someone's stinking wild arse guess....
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Yes but ... you can estimate the BEST case based on good economic conditions....

Thats why 2 yrs is BS. 4yrs IF all goes well.
 
gunfyter said:
Yes but ... you can estimate the BEST case based on good economic conditions....

Thats why 2 yrs is BS. 4yrs IF all goes well.
Click to expand...

Yes but... That would be setting yourself up for a huge disappointment... From what I have heard from the couple guys I know th ere 4 years if the planets align perfectly.

netjetwife said:
Cute kids, H25b! :)
Click to expand...

They look like their mother ... :cool: My son does have my thin head of hair however, although his keeps getting thicker and mine keeps getting thinner..
 
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Here is some factual info so you can decide for yourself. I have been at NJA for about 16 months and there are 250 people ahead of me. I'm in the mid 1800s and there are now about 2400 pilots. I was hoping to get a capt bid by next January but the capt bids have slowed.

Everyone has a guess about upgrade times, but it's just a guess. A major world event can change est. overnight to 6 months or 10 years. If you really want the job, upgrade times are the last thing to consider. It will happen when it happens.

Good luck
 
It would be interesting to count up the amount of FO's currently on the list and see how many pilots might potentially need to upgrade before a new-hire might get a captain bid. That number would have some caveats, such as bypass FO's waiting in their current fleet to upgrade (say a 2000 SIC who has no interest in the U-boat) and some retirees here who aren't interested in upgrading. And of course, if there is an uptick in retirements from NJA after the next round of bonus checks, that affects the picture, too.

I think Starcheck is essentially right - upgrade will happen when it happens. Trying to put a "good estimate" on upgrade is an exercise in futility with too many variables affecting the actual outcome.
 
The financially prudent thing to do is only take the job if you can deal with the worst case scenario. If FOs were paid decently, and after probation received a professional salary, upgrading wouldn't be such a critical question. Pilots have no control over the upgrade time, but there is a chance to have some input into wages. I encourage all of you to utilize the tools you do have at your disposal. Good Luck to Options as they head to the table and Best Wishes to Flex families as they turn in their cards. NJW
 

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