NJA 1st QTR Earnings

[gunfyter]

Even $20-$30 Million ... on the revenues we have ... IMO ... it ain't good.

 

[BentOver]

But if averaged out over 4 quarters it "could" be close to $100million for the year...

Probably not Berkshire type numbers but still profitable none the less.......Maybe good considering the economic climate?

What were the reported profits of NJA in '07?


IMO as long as this place remains profitable there is still a glimmer of hope....I read an article in which Sokol elludes to the fact that Santulli screwed up when he took growth over profits (ie: focused more on spending $$ on new a/c rather than what the profit margin was)

That there tells me that the 10 year plan is to remain profitable at the expense of growth. Basically not to overextend themselves with a/c purchases unless there is a definite need and profit behind it...

Only question I have is can the company survive without expecting atleast some form of consistant growth??

 

[rajflyboy]

and you would believe anything this man has said???

after the facts have come out I can't see why or how anyone could blame RTS.

 

[imacdog]

Sokol has publicly proven himself to be an unethical, untrustworthy person and anything he has stated should be disregarded.

 

[BentOver]

Probably mistated my post...sorry about that...

I would really really really like RTS to come back/ buy NJA back...Hate Sokol with a passion.... Met him in Jackson right before the furloughs, he had the guts to shake our hands and say how great we were blah, blah, blah...


I'm just thinking out loud that even modest profits, in this economic climate, could be viewed as somewhat positive....Even if those numbers can be skewed in 22 different ways.

I read an old thread here from around 2007, right after a nice order for Cessna'a was made. In those posts there is ALOT of talk about how those orders were just replacements for older a/c.....Much the same as we have occurring with the Globals and 300's...I'm trying to put 2 & 2 together to get a better idea of how the Globals and Phenom's will effect the current # of aircraft on property....Seems that the current orders and disposals is not all that much different from past orders and disposals....With the exception of how the Union perceives these orders..

It's all very confusing to see any difference.....Plus NJA didn't cancel every order it had, so I am curious what, if any, order still remains? Sovereign, Falcon?????

The number of a/c on property, the number of pilots, supposed future growth mentioned from the company at random recurrents, the thought that they haven't furloughed even though they are "supposedly" overstaffed, pilots saying they're flying their butts off, no sales figures, cloak and dagger management tactics,.....none of it adds up to anything that can be deemed as substantial evidence of the prospering or demise of NJA. We're in a vacuum floating for the time being......

All we know is that there has been a whole lot of talk with no action....

 

[rajflyboy]

Amen Brother

 

[T-1GUY]

I don't see any profit being shown with us so near to a contract extension/negotiation. Also, for those non-accountant types, net profit is not that meaningful. I could manipulate those numbers all day. What I really care about is Cash Flow. I also need to ask, why do we have to have growth ? If I can hit the sweet spot with the current number of aircraft, and have a positive long term cash flow, all I would need to plan for is a long term plan of renewing the disposable assets (ie New airplanes every ten years).

I would love to see growth, but if and when we see it, I believe it will be a very small percentage of the fleet, and only when I am maximizing the assets that I currently have, and minimizing the biggest expenses (getting the biggest bang for my buck...)

As a side note: The average federal income tax paid by a well run corporation is about 3%... This is due to good long term planning of your expenses to minimize profit shown on an income statement thereby minimizing the dollars that Uncle Sam collects. Once again, it is only the cash flow statement that matters...

 

[BentOver]

I would love to see growth, but if and when we see it, I believe it will be a very small percentage of the fleet, and only when I am maximizing the assets that I currently have, and minimizing the biggest expenses (getting the biggest bang for my buck...)

I think this is the fear of many furloughed and even not furloughed pilots.....No growth means no upgrades..... Not such a big deal as far as log book stuff..But that paycheck for SIC's maxes out at 10 years and under $100K for the 7/7..you'd have to work the 18 just to see $100K on the larger fleets....

Hopefully the addage that you need to grow to succeed takes hold.... I don't know how you tell a sales team, who's salary is dictated by sales, to only sell "x" amount to recoup owners who leave.... Then again maybe that's why sales people are leaving...

Who knows... maybe a couple hundred guys will retire/leave over the next 4-5 years..

 

[Pervis]

One thing to consider when it comes to profits and BKS desired margins. Netjets may only bring in a few percentage points, but the time it saves the brass in other BKS companies means increased profitablitity for every other entity Buffet owns. Time is money, and we provide it.

 

[T-1GUY]

Who knows... maybe a couple hundred guys will retire/leave over the next 4-5 years..

I just don't see that happening. Most of the older guys took the buyout a couple of years ago. I think the majority of the captains left are in the 40-50 crowd...

 

[imacdog]

I've seen some pretty ancient dudes walking around the FBOs in the last few months. A look at the birthdays list on the union board will give you a rough idea of the age range of the pilot group as well.

 

[gunfyter]

The only way people will retire is if we negotiate Defined Benefits, otherwise...

Many Won't Be Able to Retire Until They're 80

Retire at 80? Boomers and Gen X May Be Stuck in Work Force - Yahoo ...

Jun 10, 2011 ... Retire at 65? Fuhgeddaboutit, a new study says. Baby Boomers and Gen Xers may need to delay retirement into their 70s or 80s to have enough ...



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[BentOver]

I just don't see that happening. Most of the older guys took the buyout a couple of years ago. I think the majority of the captains left are in the 40-50 crowd...

On the contrary, considering the package that was being offered, VERY FEW took the buyout....(most were probably hit hard in the wallet during the downturn and couldn't afford to retire??)

Just guessing but I'd have to estimate there has to be atleast 50 or so guys pushing 70?? (just the other day there were 2 guys who turned 69) Not alot overall but enough to possibly stave off a furlough OR aid in returns?

If anyone is going to jump ship I'd guess it would be the SIC's... NJA SIC pay is ok, but really only if you work the 18 day...The 7/7 pays approximately $70K-$80K for it's lifetime. Not much better than regional captain pay, but without the biddable schedule. Regional captains leave that $$ for the majors so why wouldn't a longterm SIC do the same?

The real allure for NJA as a new hire or short term SIC is first year pay.. But once you get into being a 10 year SIC that allure quickly fades. Especially when you see even JetBlue SIC's making more and working fewer days with a biddable schedule.

 

[jtf]

I counted up the number of pilots by age from the one company communication that accidentally included it when they announced how many took the early outs (it didn't say anybodies names, just how many pilots at each age by PIC or SIC). Not including those who left, there are somewhere around 300 pilots that will be 65 or older within the next 5 years and about half of them are SICs. 65 also doesn't really mean much for NJA and retirement. We aren't going to become captains through retirement attrition. Attrition to other jobs by lots of more senior pilots is the only way outside of growth and if that is happening, it is most likely because they don't believe their Captain positions will be around all that much longer. I hope we go into negotiations ASAP to bring up the SIC scales beyond year 10 and healthily above the current yearly figures. I understand this is only going to affect a relatively small number of pilots so I don't know how much negotiating capital we will get, but I can always hope. I also hope we get totally new management that will be willing to grow and take back market share- might as well keep hoping.

 

[T-1GUY]

It concerns me that I have seen quotes that the SIC's were taken care of in the last round. I sure hope SIC's get taken care of in the next round as well. Who wants to do ten years of a career at about 70K a year.

I agree that attrition will be the SIC's. We just need Southwest to open that app window back up. It makes me sic (SIC get it) to see their pay is about twice what we get.

I still remember the quote that the upgrade would be a year and one half from hire date. I thought I would only have to put up with Shi$$y pay for a short time....