Newest Boyd prediction

[scoreboard]

There's A New Low-Fare Airline In The Works

It's coming in the next 18 months. America's newest airline. In a very real way, it will re-write much of the book on airline operations, and be one very nasty competitor.

It'll Be Big - Real Big - From The Start. No bootstrapping heres, this carrier's going to be big - a fleet of several hundred airliners, eventually comprised of units from 100 to 140 seats. It won't follow the nonsense espoused by empty-suit academics who claim just one airplane type is best - it'll have a fleet that's structured to flexibly access maximum revenue, not win an "A" grade from some zipperhead professor at the Whartog School of Business. Probably it will end up with at least three airliner types between 100 and roughly 150 seats. No RJs - the airline knows better. No widebodies, either.

Low Fares - But To Smaller Markets, Too. The route system will be huge, with at least four de facto connecting hubs, plus linear flying as well. The plan will certainly be be focused on large, high-density markets, eventually including large transborder leisure points in Mexico and possibly the Caribbean. But it may also identify emerging growth points, even at communities that today generate as few as 500,000 annual O&D passengers, and have the ability to produce strong price-based stimulation. The airline will look hard at any such community that's also experiencing strong industrial investment. Hence, the 100-seat airliners. Probably E-Jets.

A Simple, But Competitive Product. The new airline knows that the best product is one that gets the customer to the destination as quickly and as anxiety-free as possible. So the new airline will provide excellence in all aspects of customer service. It will offer a single-cabin product with advanced seat assignment system-wide. IFE systems may be in the plan eventually, but having video screens in every seat-back isn't a priority. Instead, in-flight service will be simple and efficient. This airline may dabble with innovative snack items - as long as the cost is about the equivalent of a bag of pretzels.

Competitively Carnivorous. Other airlines are bests advised to not mistake the new carrier's excellent customer service as being an indication of how it views competition. These are not friendly people when it comes to dealing with other airlines. Strong, dominant revenue share in chosen markets will be the goal. If that means some incumbents end up singing the blues, so be it.

This is a management team that fully understands that a strong economy won't last forever, and they know that traffic can and will flatten. They'll view every passenger now on American, United, Frontier, AirTran or anybody else as potentially theirs, and they will have as a basic marketing plan to change "potentially" to "now." They won't put other airlines out of business. Instead, they'll offer a level of service that will have consumers do it for them.

New In Concept & Direction. But Been Around Awhile. The new airline's name? Well, it technically won't be a new carrier, just one re-born and polished to meet the future, even if it does mean breaking with lots of things in the past.

Write this prediction down: the "new carrier" is Southwest.

This is an industry that's facing more wrenching changes, and airline "models" must change, too, even if they go counter to what "everybody thinks."

Despite high labor costs and a diminishing fuel hedge advantage, it would be foolish to assume that WN will stick with an MO that worked in the past, but won't do as well in the future. Southwest is most of the way there. They effectively have two airliner types now - 737-300/500s and 737-700s. They are moving to assigned seats. They are muscling into markets where they have to take share from incumbents, not just stimulate traffic with low fares.

Another type of aircraft isn't out of the question, notwithstanding the howls of cackling that would come from the ill-informed financial parrots on Wall Street. Southwest knows full well that the future can no longer depend just on low ASM costs - accessing emerging revenue streams is the name of the new game, and a flexible fleet is key to that. If a 100-seater, or even a mainline-cabin 70-seater can contribute, it'll come on property.

Most importantly, Southwest has management that, down deep, doesn't take any of the good press about Southwest seriously. They know the challenges they face, and they're dealing with them. Take it to the bank: they see the future, and they're taking nothing for granted.

If other airlines thought Southwest was a tough competitor in the past, give it another 18 to 24 months. Passengers and mid-size communities will get the best end of the deal, because WN's going to come knocking in any market where there's money to be made.

But for the competition, Southwest'll make Attila the Hun look like a wussy.

Ouch, now I'm a bad guy...:erm:

 

[Truckdriver]

And all of the changes Southwest will make are in response to what JetBlue is doing. If Southwest Doesn't change, JetBlue will stomp them into the ground. I see JetBlue becoming bigger and better than Southwest because they are already one step ahead of them with the E-190. All of the sudden Southwest is talking about IFE, assigned seating, and 100 seaters like they have come across a great new plan. JetBlue had that all figured out years ago and the plan is now being executed. I think Southwest has realized they have a competitive moster on their hands and they are scrambling to figure out how to beat it. Good luck!!

 

[Dangerkitty]

And all of the changes Southwest will make are in response to what JetBlue is doing. If Southwest Doesn't change, JetBlue will stomp them into the ground. I see JetBlue becoming bigger and better than Southwest because they are already one step ahead of them with the E-190. All of the sudden Southwest is talking about IFE, assigned seating, and 100 seaters like they have come across a great new plan. JetBlue had that all figured out years ago and the plan is now being executed. I think Southwest has realized they have a competitive moster on their hands and they are scrambling to figure out how to beat it. Good luck!!

Can you really make that statement with a straight face?

 

[Dangerkitty]

..............

 

[fxbat]

Boyd

Every time I hear that name I think of some burned out X-hippie typing away at the bar in the little bear around noon.

 

[GogglesPisano]

The guy may have some insight but why does he have to write like an obnoxious know-it-all? He sounds like a bag-du-******************************.

 

[Truckdriver]

Can you really make that statement with a straight face?

Yes I can.

 

[T45Flyer]

Why would you spend many millions of dollars for IFE when you are selling seats at record load factors? Doesnt make sense. If its not broken, do not fix it.

 

[Truckdriver]

Why would you spend many millions of dollars for IFE when you are selling seats at record load factors? Doesnt make sense. If its not broken, do not fix it.

The problem is SWA realizes it will be broken when a passenger has a choice between SWA and JBLU and the price is the same. Not many folks will get herded onto a SWA airplane if they can hop on a JBLU airplane and get where they want to go for the same price. When JBLU gets high-speed internet on their airplanes, people will probably even pay more to ride JBLU vs. SWA. SWA realizes they need to change or a mature JBLU route structure is going to hurt them.

 

[atafan]

And all of the changes Southwest will make are in response to what JetBlue is doing. If Southwest Doesn't change, JetBlue will stomp them into the ground.

- American, United, Northwest, Delta, USAir, AirTran - And you think SWA is only worried about JetBlue. Can I have a hit off of what your smokin.

Repeat after me.

1. Price.
2. Route Structure - Market Share.
3. Timely/Reliable Service.
4. Marketing.
* Thats all that matters.

JBLU will not catch up to SWA anytime soon, not during my career anyways. If I were JBLU, I'd be worried about the 800 lb gorilla called SWA and not to mention everyone else that will shooting at you.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

And all of the changes Southwest will make are in response to what JetBlue is doing. If Southwest Doesn't change, JetBlue will stomp them into the ground. I see JetBlue becoming bigger and better than Southwest because they are already one step ahead of them with the E-190. All of the sudden Southwest is talking about IFE, assigned seating, and 100 seaters like they have come across a great new plan. JetBlue had that all figured out years ago and the plan is now being executed. I think Southwest has realized they have a competitive moster on their hands and they are scrambling to figure out how to beat it. Good luck!!

I do think JetBlue is firmly on track to fight most other airlines, Regionals and legacies alike.

But I also think it's an uphill battle against Southwest.

JetBlue has to overcome the inefficiency of a smaller, 2 airplane fleet and has to bear the costs of pulling revenue generating pilots out to attend training on a second airplane.

Then there is that debt and higher interest rate thingamabob...


Maybe your prediction is looking 3 years ahead and beyond. Then I see some hope for it.

But by then USAir, Delta, UAL and NWA (feeder or mainline) 190's will be firmly in the running for dominance....

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

It'll Be Big - Real Big - From The Start. No bootstrapping heres, this carrier's going to be big - a fleet of several hundred airliners, eventually comprised of units from 100 to 140 seats. It won't follow the nonsense espoused by empty-suit academics who claim just one airplane type is best - it'll have a fleet that's structured to flexibly access maximum revenue, not win an "A" grade from some zipperhead professor at the Whartog School of Business. Probably it will end up with at least three airliner types between 100 and roughly 150 seats. No RJs - the airline knows better. No widebodies, either.

Is that really Boyd describing a future SWA????

What is he smoking??? I don't believe that is him talking.

3 airline types is mad. Especially with no widebody.

 

[atafan]

FlyBoeingJets,

The widebody aircraft and International markets are being developed even as we type. It's called ATA.

How did that press release read? "Extensive international network on the East and West Coast."

 

[Dangerkitty]

Yes I can.

Yeah, because selling brand new airplanes is a great way to kick the snot out of Southwest!

 

[Jolly Roger]

I thought Boyd was always predicting SWA's demise... now it is set to gobble up the world. Which prediction is right? I guess he can't be wrong now!

 

[eaglefly]

damn................................

I was seriously hoping his prediction was the liquidation of American Eagle. If it was, I could have rested easy knowing I had job security and a stable future.

Now, "backwards Boyd" has got me real worried. I'm still hoping he'll announce the above soon so I can rest a little easier. I've still got hope though...........

If that dizzy and clueless broad over at "The Street" can proclaim Eagle's hopeless future, I still might have a chance.

Fingers are crossed.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

I thought Boyd was always predicting SWA's demise... now it is set to gobble up the world. Which prediction is right? I guess he can't be wrong now!

You saw that too. He always hedges his bets so he can backtrack when his "main" predictions don't turn out as planned.

 

[eaglefly]

This is a test.................

I'm going to type the word D a m n (a word approved for prime time TV) several times and see what the Flightinfo CENSORS have programed their system to do.

Here goes :


Damn, damn, damn, and finally damn.

 

[Truckdriver]

Yeah, because selling brand new airplanes is a great way to kick the snot out of Southwest!

If selling the oldest 5 airplanes that you OWN will reduce some of your debt and make you some money at the same time, then it is a great business move. A reduction in debt with an increase in cash is a great move even if it is done by selling old airplanes that will be replaced by new ones with lower maintenance costs. If you think that is a bad move you obviously have a flight technology degree from Riddle and no understanding of how to run a business.

 

[eaglefly]

That's what I thought.

Once again, our ultra-conservative right-wing freinds at shhhhhhhhhhhhh.........I better not say it or I'll go to H E "double toothpicks" (most likely censored as well) have gone too far.

Germany in the early '40's, Cuba in the '70's or the USA in 2006 ?

You decide.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

FlyBoeingJets,

The widebody aircraft and International markets are being developed even as we type. It's called ATA.

How did that press release read? "Extensive international network on the East and West Coast."

Good point.

Gary Kelly is holding his cards close, as he should.

There are competing demands here. ATA is a good fit for SWA to codeshare for international. I anticipate the codeshares to last as long as currently agreed upon, maybe longer. But it should continue only as long as it remains low frequency. The pilots union wants to that flying really bad. SWAPA may even fight for it to be covered by SWA pilots sooner rather than later....I hope cooler heads prevail.

My question is...How can SWA do it, efficiently, if we don't get a "super" 737 in 4 years with a common type with the 300/500/700???

And lets face it, SWA needs that efficiency to keep paying high pilot wages. You can't get something for nothing.

 

[atafan]

The New Boeing 737-900ER ?

The 737-900ER is a short-to-medium range twinjet that increases the capability of the Next-Generation 737 family. It was launched on July 18, 2005 , with an order for 30 airplanes from Lion Air. The exterior dimensions of the new 737-900ER are identical to the 737-900. Aerodynamic and structural changes allow the 737-900ER to carry more passengers and fly farther than the 737-900. Entry into service is scheduled for the first half of 2007.
Major Changes

• An extra pair of exit doors, aft of the wings
• A two-position tail skid
• A flat rear pressure bulkhead
• Wing strengthening changes
• Enhancements to the leading and trailing edge flap systems
• Up to two optional auxiliary fuel tanks
• Optional Blended Winglets

Benefits

• Carries 26 more passengers than the 737-900, up to 215 passengers in a single-class configuration
• Flies about 500 nautical miles farther, up to 3,200 nm (5,925 km)
• Weighs more than 10,000 pounds (4,536 kgs) less than the A321.
• Has lower operating costs than the A321; about 9 percent lower per trip, and 7 percent lower per seat.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

If selling the oldest 5 airplanes that you OWN will reduce some of your debt and make you some money at the same time, then it is a great business move. A reduction in debt with an increase in cash is a great move even if it is done by selling old airplanes that will be replaced by new ones with lower maintenance costs. If you think that is a bad move you obviously have a flight technology degree from Riddle and no understanding of how to run a business.

So you admit it?

We all remember those guys who said when the free maintenance runs out it would change the ballgame for JetBlue.

Now you're saying they were right???




We all know running an airline business is not the same as running a used airplane lot.

Heck, I like to trade in my cars at 60K before they lose all their trade in value...It's all about resale baby!


Sorry, can't agree with you. It's all about trying to prevent a short term cash crunch. For the record I think JetBlue is on track to do well when they get thru this tough time. But selling 6 yr old A320's is not a "good" thing. It is a means to survive.

 

[SWA/FO]

And all of the changes Southwest will make are in response to what JetBlue is doing. If Southwest Doesn't change, JetBlue will stomp them into the ground. I see JetBlue becoming bigger and better than Southwest because they are already one step ahead of them with the E-190. All of the sudden Southwest is talking about IFE, assigned seating, and 100 seaters like they have come across a great new plan. JetBlue had that all figured out years ago and the plan is now being executed. I think Southwest has realized they have a competitive moster on their hands and they are scrambling to figure out how to beat it. Good luck!!

Yeah your one step ahead of us. We don't lose money or sell airplanes. If SWA is worried about anybody its AirTran.. I'd say we are worried about ourselves more then anyone else.

Stay tuned for 2nd QTR earnings...

 

[scoreboard]

The New Boeing 737-555SR ?

The 737-555SR is a very short, short-to-medium range twinjet that filos the niche and capability of the Next-Generation 737 family. It was launched on July 18, 2005 , with an order for 303 airplanes from WN. The exterior dimensions of the new 737-555SR are identical to the 737-500 of old. Aerodynamic and structural changes allow the 737-555SR to carry fewer passengers on shorter routes to underservised locals, carrying a max of 100 passengers and is scheduled for the first half of 2007.
Major Changes

• Removal of overwing exit doors
• Removal of one engine
• No pressure bulkhead
• Wing structure from King air
• Enhancements to the leading and trailing edge flap systems
• Optional Blended Winglets

Benefits

• Carries 37 fewer passengers than the 737-700,
• Flies about 500 nautical miles less, up to 1,200 nm (5,925 km)
• Weighs less than 60,000 pounds .
• Has lower operating costs than the E-190; about 9 percent lower per trip, and 7 percent lower per seat.

Just kidding..................

 

[Dangerkitty]

If selling the oldest 5 airplanes that you OWN will reduce some of your debt and make you some money at the same time, then it is a great business move.

Yeah, because leasing an airplane is such a wiser choice.

A reduction in debt with an increase in cash is a great move even if it is done by selling old airplanes that will be replaced by new ones with lower maintenance costs.

The airplanes that you are selling are only 6 years old!!! When I came to AA I was flying B-727's that were 35 years old. And guess what; AA owned them too!! Fact of the matter is, Jetblue is in a Liquidity crisis! If it didn't need cash now then it would not be selling its ASSETS to bring in quick cash. Looks like your airline is selling the furniture to keep the house their truckdriver. Spin it anyway you want. This does not look good for JetBlue.

If you think that is a bad move you obviously have a flight technology degree from Riddle and no understanding of how to run a business.

Nope. I have a degree from Auburn University. It is you that lacks the understanding of todays Airline environment. I am sorry that your airline is dying a slow death, but denial isn't going to pay your mortgage.

Oh, and BTW. If you are going to start spewing all this BS like it is the almighty Gospel. How about backing up your BS with a few facts and such. Otherwise you are just a clueless flaimbater.

 

[B6Driver]

And AA has all the answers?
I worked there so I know first hand that they don't.
Lets see how smug you are when the company tells the apa they need more cuts to make money. Too funny.........

 

[Dangerkitty]

And AA has all the answers?
I worked there so I know first hand that they don't.
Lets see how smug you are when the company tells the apa they need more cuts to make money. Too funny.........

I never said they did sir. Fact of the matter is your airline is selling airplanes because it can't pay the bills.

If that hurts your feelings I am sorry.

Furthermore, I dont fly for AA anymore and I am not going back.

 

[B6Driver]

How's the Flow back job you stole from some AE captain?
Then again, its nothing new for you AA boys.
Come to think of it, with all your 1,234 postings, you must be furloughed to waste so much time on such a silly MB as this.

 

[Dangerkitty]

How's the Flow back job you stole from some AE captain?
Then again, its nothing new for you AA boys.

Again you are making assumptions there. I am not flying for AE. I am flying a heavy for a Part 91 Fortune 500 Company.

Again, you can't attack my message and opinion so you try to attack me and only make a total fool of yourself.

Once again, sorry B6 is selling A320's to pay the bills but you shouldn't lash out at me for that.