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Netjets and 200/barrel oil

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I respect everyone's opinion to the fuel price question, as opposed to some. I actually had a conversation with a major CEO owner prior to taking him to the BH shareholder's meeting. I posed this very question. He said he couldn't care less about fuel fees. He wanted access to the large fleet and premium benefits that NJA provides. Will it effect some? Sure. Will it drastically effect NJA? I doubt it, but we will see that's a given.

At the top of the flying food chain they will stay "all in." The market as a whole is no longer a top of the food chain market; individuals, private companies, public companies who keep making the money.

Every fractional now has a significant cardholder market base. These individuals/companies can now pull out in months, not years. In addition, cardholders are by their nature cash flow based puchasers.

Every fractional has at least 20% (one more than 50%) cardholder based revenue. Very dangerous, but some fractional providers went to the renvue they could (cards vs charter option) to make it this far, during good times.

A fractional company can now, for the first time, easily see a one year 10% to 15% drop out rate between owners and cardholders who don't/can't renue.

Again, IMHO,
 
CoT,

You have not provided evidence to back up your numbers therefore it must be pure speculation on your part. Obviously that's the beauty of this board - people can speculate all they want. Have fun with that.
 
CoT,

You have not provided evidence to back up your numbers therefore it must be pure speculation on your part. Obviously that's the beauty of this board - people can speculate all they want. Have fun with that.

The good news is we are all speculating about $200 a barrel oil and its affect on the industry.

Some think it will have no affect to our industry segment, while others believe it will.

Nothing like oil speculators - my point is simple, no company is invincible - and due to economic cycles they all get tested - time will tell.
 
I don't think the cost of oil is the real issue. I think the effect the cost of oil is having on the airlines is a more significant issue.

Our owners and card holders have few options. Throw in the on demand nature of our business and those options get very few indeed.

Going back to the airlines with 95% load factors and increasing labor problems, etc..., go to a charter, have their own A/C, or stay with us. Given the option and our increasing focus on premium service and massive fleet structure, I don't think we will be saying goodbye to too many.

I flew on Eagle the other day. Paid premium last minute price for the ticket mind you. Delayed as usual, jammed packed as usual, far less than professional FA (to the point of imbarrassment), and filthy uncomfortable aircraft. I just smile thinking that when this is the major alternative, my future is very secure.

Just one example, but a significant one.:)

But you are right, we will see. I have put my money on NJA. I think this pony has legs!
 
CoT,

You have not provided evidence to back up your numbers therefore it must be pure speculation on your part. Obviously that's the beauty of this board - people can speculate all they want. Have fun with that.
I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about.
 
Cast of Thousands,

While I agree with you concerns, Dan Rosenthal has a different one that I share.

He says the biggest threat to NetJets is the Fractional industry becoming a commodity, much like the airlines have become. There is no brand loyalty!

The good news is that our pilots continue to demonstrate their magic on every flight, and in the short term the danger seems negligible.

The challenge is going to be maintaining our enthusiasm!
 
[quote=fischman;1588927]Cast of Thousands,

While I agree with you concerns, Dan Rosenthal has a different one that I share.

He says the biggest threat to NetJets is the Fractional industry becoming a commodity, much like the airlines have become. There is no brand loyalty!

The good news is that our pilots continue to demonstrate their magic on every flight, and in the short term the danger seems negligible.

The challenge is going to be maintaining our enthusiasm![/quote]

Now the fact I was sitting next to you when that was said remains to be seen....:beer:

but the MAN has a point... we can be as enthusiastic as possible, any feel we are invincible, but if the lower tier owners/cardholders dry up the funds, then its a whole new ballgame.

"no company is invincible - and due to economic cycles they all get tested - time will tell."

Need he say more.

Me thinks we can whether this storm with a minimal amount of damage to our lifestyle... but it will take a little more effort and a concerted effort from some of our colleagues to insure this. The battle has to be shifted from anti management (pre -2005... some still hold a grudge, and hell, i dont necessarly blame them.) to positive team concept ( by the contract and only by the contract so some of you cant try to rip into me)... and quickly. It depends on our and theirs livelihood.


'nuff said on this.. Howz about Lester's No No tonight
!!
 
Cast of Thousands,

While I agree with you concerns, Dan Rosenthal has a different one that I share.

He says the biggest threat to NetJets is the Fractional industry becoming a commodity, much like the airlines have become. There is no brand loyalty!

The good news is that our pilots continue to demonstrate their magic on every flight, and in the short term the danger seems negligible.

The challenge is going to be maintaining our enthusiasm!

Brand loyalty is critical to all fractional providers - IF DR said differently he is sadly mistaken. Brand loyalty doesn't exist with a commodity (price driven) based business ... Brand loyalty does exist with a brand, product, and/or service based business.

Final note: The commodity based business comment comes directly from Warren Buffett and his comments referencing his error in the US Air stock purchase. Warren further expanded on the issue with his purchase of NetJets in 1998 where he made it clear NetJets was nothing like an airline and therefore the purchase of NetJets is nothing like US Air.

Respectfully,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brand_loyalty
Brand loyalty
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Brand management
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Brand loyalty has been proclaimed by some to be the ultimate goal of marketing.[1] In marketing, brand loyalty consists of a consumer's commitment to repurchase the brand and can be demonstrated by repeated buying of a product or service or other positive behaviors such as word of mouth advocacy.[2] True brand loyalty implies that the consumer is willing, at least on occasion, to put aside their own desires in the interest of the brand.[3]
Brand loyalty is more than simple repurchasing, however. Customers may repurchase a brand due to situational constraints, a lack of viable alternatives, or out of convenience.[4] Such loyalty is referred to as "spurious loyalty". True brand loyalty exists when customers have a high relative attitude toward the brand which is then exhibited through repurchase behavior.[2] This type of loyalty can be a great asset to the firm: customers are willing to pay higher prices, they may cost less to serve, and can bring new customers to the firm.[1][5] For example, if Joe has brand loyalty to Company A he will purchase Company A's products even if Company B's are cheaper and/or of a higher quality.
An example of a major brand loyalty program that extended for several years and spread worldwide is Pepsi Stuff. Perhaps the most significant contemporary example of brand loyalty is the fervent devotion of many Mac users to the Apple company and its products.
From the point of view of many marketers, loyalty to the brand - in terms of consumer usage - is a key factor:
Contents [hide]
0. 1 Usage rate
0. 2 Loyalty
0. 3 Industrial Markets
0. 4 Portfolios of Brands
0. 5 Market Inertia
0. 6 Examples of Brand Loyalty Promotions
0. 7 See also
0. 8 References
0. 9 External links

[edit]
Usage rate
Most important of all, in this context, is usually the 'rate ' of usage, to which the Pareto 80:20 Rule applies. Kotler's `heavy users' are likely to be disproportionately important to the brand (typically, 20 percent of users accounting for 80 percent of usage -- and of suppliers' profit). As a result, suppliers often segment their customers into `heavy', `medium' and `light' users; as far as they can, they target `heavy users'.

[edit]
Loyalty
A second dimension, however, is whether the customer is committed to the brand. Philip Kotler, again, defines four patterns of behaviour:
Hard Core Loyals - who buy the brand all the time.
Soft Core Loyals - loyal to two or three brands.
Shifting Loyals - moving from one brand to another.
Switchers - with no loyalty (possibly `deal-prone', constantly looking for bargains or `vanity prone', looking for something different).

[edit]
Industrial Markets
In industrial markets, organizations will regard the `heavy users' as `major accounts', to be handled by senior sales personnel and even managers; whereas the `light users' may be handled by the general salesforce or by a dealer.

[edit]
Portfolios of Brands
Andrew Ehrenberg, then of the London Business School said that consumers buy 'portfolios of brands'.[citation needed] They switch regularly between brands, often because they simply want a change. Thus, 'brand penetration' or 'brand share' reflects only a statistical chance that the majority of customers will buy that brand next time as part of a portfolio of brands they favour. It does not guarantee that they will stay loyal.
Influencing the statistical probabilities facing a consumer choosing from a portfolio of preferred brands, which is required in this context, is a very different role for a brand manager; compared with the - much simpler - one traditionally described, of recruiting and holding dedicated customers. The concept also emphasises the need for managing continuity.

[edit]
Market Inertia
On the other hand, one of the most prominent features of many markets is their overall stability - or inertia. Thus, in their essential characteristics they change very slowly, often over decades - sometimes centuries - rather than over months. This stability has two very important implications. The first is that if you are a clear brand leader you are especially well placed in relation to your competitors, and should want to further the inertia which lies behind that stable position. This will, however, still demand a continuing pattern of minor changes, to keep up with the marginal changes in consumer taste (which may be minor to the theorist, but will still be crucial in terms of those consumers' purchasing patterns - markets do not favour the over-complacent.). But these minor investments are a small price to pay for the long term profits which brand leaders usually enjoy. Only farm-hands make a career out of milking cows, and only fools jeopardise the investment contained in an established brand leader.
The second, and more important is that if you want to overturn this stability, and change the market (or significantly change your position in it), then you must expect to make massive investments to succeed. Even though stability is the natural state of markets, however, sudden changes can still occur and the environment must be constantly scanned for signs of these.

[edit]
Examples of Brand Loyalty Promotions
0. Pepsi Stuff

[edit]
See also
0. Affective marketing
0. Brand architecture
0. Brand aversion
0. Brand equity
0. Brand management
0. Customer engagement
0. Employer branding
0. Evangelism marketing

[edit]
References
0. ^ a b Reichheld, Frederick F. and W. Earl Jr. Sasser (1990), "Zero Defections: Quality Comes to Services," Harvard Business Review (September-October), 105-11.
0. ^ a b Dick, Alan S. and Kunal Basu (1994), "Customer Loyalty: Toward an Integrated Conceptual Framework," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 22 (2), 99-113.
0. ^ Oliver, Richard L. (1999), "Whence Customer Loyalty?," Journal of Marketing, 63 (3), 33-44.
0. ^ Jones, Michael A., David L. Mothersbaugh, and Sharon E. Beatty (2002), "Why Customers Stay: Measuring the Underlying Dimensions of Services Switching Costs and Managing Their Differential Strategic Outcomes," Journal of Business Research, 55, 441-50.
0. ^ Reichheld, Frederick F. (1993), "Loyalty-Based Management," Harvard Business Review, 71 (2), 64-73.
0. P. Kotler, 'Marketing Management ' (Prentice-Hall, 7th edn, 1991)
0. D. Mercer, ‘Marketing’ (Blackwell, 1996)
0. Jacoby, J. and Chestnut, R.W., 1978, Brand Loyalty: Measurement Management (John Wiley & Sons, New York).Arindam ghosh(MBA ,iipm)

[edit]
External links
0. D. Mercer, ‘Marketing’ (Blackwell, 1996)
 
Now the fact I was sitting next to you when that was said remains to be seen....:beer:

but the MAN has a point... we can be as enthusiastic as possible, any feel we are invincible, but if the lower tier owners/cardholders dry up the funds, then its a whole new ballgame.

"no company is invincible - and due to economic cycles they all get tested - time will tell."

Need he say more.

Me thinks we can whether this storm with a minimal amount of damage to our lifestyle... but it will take a little more effort and a concerted effort from some of our colleagues to insure this. The battle has to be shifted from anti management (pre -2005... some still hold a grudge, and hell, i dont necessarly blame them.) to positive team concept ( by the contract and only by the contract so some of you cant try to rip into me)... and quickly. It depends on our and theirs livelihood.


'nuff said on this.. Howz about Lester's No No tonight
!!



One must always remember the [NetJets] pilots are in fact a brand, within a brand.

Every owner/cardholder knows there is Puzzle Palace service and there is flight line pilot service. By and large NetJets owners/cardholder are very loyal to NetJets pilots - which is a good thing in my mind because we work WITH NetJets and FOR the owner/cardholder.

If we make sure the owners/cardholders see the value in spending $200 a barrel with NetJets - if they can, they will.
 
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I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about.

Looks like the middle east XO Jet funding announcement I mentioned was released a day after I brought it forward.

It's not the best deal for XO Jet when you read the terms. Make no mistake about, XO Jet is an IPO scheme that will be an annoyance in the market well after those that created the problem make their dough - a la West Pac and Jet Blue to name a few.

They got the money and will be a big annoyance, but the model isn't viable long term. It will take a lot more money, which will be captured on the IPO, to reorganize and demonstrate longer term viability (a slow death unless they capture a good percentage of the market share.

XO Jets new and "energized" employees will work hard to bring the harvest to market (cash in their stock).

All I can say is their financing is expensive and their initial operating model (they are on their 3rd initial operating model) is flawed.
 
No inside info here - but it's clear XO Jet will be paying 1.5X (or more) the aircraft purchase with financing tallied to the total bill.

Near term market share and growth are VERY critical to their survival to IPO. Then they will get enough to survive another cycle or two - unless they hurt NetJets. Then they will be the new 900lbs gorilla.

Now NetJets will need to aggressively go after XO Jet. Look for NetJets to make a move such as no ferry fees from UAE to UK.

IMHO,


http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/financiers-uncertain-amid-credit-upheaval/

Financiers uncertain amid credit upheaval
By Ian Goold
May 20, 2008
Aviation Financing


Business aviation financiers exhibiting here at EBACE’08 have arrived in Geneva largely uncertain about the full implications of the ongoing squeeze on the global credit market and the availability of funds to pay for aircraft purchases. Last month, EBACE Convention News approached six banks listed as exhibitors, but only two–Citi Private Bank (Booth No. 1441) and Bank of America (Booth No. 941)–would respond to questions about whether the fallout from the massive bad debts from the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis is inhibiting previously buoyant demand for business aircraft.

“The current economic situation has certainly not improved the financing conditions for buyers,” noted Toennies von Limburg, international sales director in Bank 
of America Leasing’s corporate aircraft finance department. “The full impact remains to be seen,” according to Mary Schwartz, global head of aircraft finance and managing director at Citi Private Bank wealth management service.

“I believe that spreads will increase on financing, as we see happening,” continued Schwartz, meaning that the availability of funds will tighten. “Based on what we know today, continued volatility in credit markets has significantly impacted the cost of capital across our industry.” However, she expects the business to remain profitable, on the basis that, “the market will adjust pricing to reflect wider market conditions.”

Bank of America (BoA) still finances corporate aircraft in the same way as in previous years, although the industry will be less aggressive in seeking new customers, predicted von Limburg. “There appear to be quite a few banks that are focusing more strongly on relationship clients and which will not try to grow their books at the past rate.” Accordingly, new candidates for corporate aircraft finance probably will “find it more difficult to get attractive rates, as will existing clients with weaker credit.”

Schwartz agreed that banks are not lending so easily. She said such lending had become less competitive over the past year and warned of a possible early downturn in new orders. “Between the lending crisis and the lengthy backlogs, we may see that happen very soon,” she said. Since aircraft markets lag behind the economy, the impact of the current market situation has not yet been realized.

Although there are now more used aircraft for sale, Schwartz said she had “not heard of people canceling orders for new aircraft.” Nevertheless, banks have become more selective in their lending practices, she acknowledged.

This more conservative approach contrasts with some recent lending patterns that need to be corrected, according to the Citi Private Bank executive: “There was [an aircraft] financing frenzy last year. Some firms were kind of giving money away at rates that were too low and using structures that may not have made sense,” Schwartz maintained. Now, she sees a return to more normal lending practices. Also, acquisition prices had been extremely high “particularly for an early [delivery] position on the bigger aircraft. The current environment may correct that as well.”

The trend in corporate aircraft finance over the past five years has reflected a “bigger is better” mentality in terms of aircraft selection, which has driven up the value of loan deals, she said. “Big, long-range jets are the hottest sellers, with buyers waiting three to five years for deliveries.”

BoA’s von Limburg noted two major trends: “First, an increase in prices, especially [for used aircraft], due to strong demand and long lead times for new deliveries. Second, and probably more important, [market] growth outside the U.S. While the U.S. is still home to the largest fleet of corporate jets, delivery of new aircraft elsewhere increased from 27 percent in 2003 to more than 50 percent in 2007.”

Properly maintained and managed corporate aircraft generally enjoy good residual values, but perceptions of future value vary significantly between banks, according to von Limburg. Acknowledging currently high perceived values, Schwartz said the trend creates issues for lenders and lessors, which might lend more than what she termed the “actual” value.

“Most banks will control that risk by amortizing the loan [more quickly] so [that] the residual is at a reasonable level at termination. However, most aircraft [used by private clients] maintain value very well, particularly since they tend to be used relatively infrequently, which does help to keep the market strong,” she explained.
“The market has historically been cyclical, but whenever there has been a dip, it seems to come back stronger than before.”

So will high values inhibit potential lenders if they imply that the only way to go is down? Last year, the market’s peak did not inhibit lenders, noted Schwartz, while von Limburg believes some lenders and lessors, “especially new players,” may see the need to adjust their valuations models.

Schwartz agreed, but emphasized historic market cyclic trends: “In time, values will stabilize and return [to normalcy]. In the late 1990s and 2000, they were very strong. Then 9/11 happened, the technology bubble burst and the economy in general was terrible and values dropped, some as much as 30 percent.”

However, she noted that subsequent recovery might be short-lived: “[Since] 2004 values have increased to new heights. We have seen many pre-owned aircraft, particularly the larger ones, selling for more than 100 percent of their original cost. If someone were to sell their [delivery] position on certain aircraft, they could conceivably make $10 million to $15 million on the sale. That might change now,” she concluded.

Von Limburg confirmed an earlier trend toward 100 percent financing. “While this was supported by continuously rising values, it is very likely that a softening market will trigger lower loan-to-value ratios,” he said.

Market cyclicality will not change, maintained Schwartz. “If history tells us anything, ups and downs in the market will continue. The major difference now is that [in the widened world market] I believe the ‘lows’ will not be as low [as previously]. Most industry analysts agree and feel that the ‘globality’ of the market will help to maintain its strength.”

Finally, von Limburg noted the importance of a potential aircraft finance customer’s region of operation or country of aircraft registration, saying that some jurisdictions are not lender-friendly. “We examine each to make sure we have a secure position and may require that the aircraft be registered in a friendly jurisdiction,” he said. “Different financing institutions have different target markets, but typically all will require a registration that offers a proper security interest in the aircraft.”

The other aircraft finance companies here at EBACE are Barclays (Booth No. 808), Credit Suisse (Booth No. 284), Fortis Lease Switzerland (Booth No. 1175) and SG Equipment Finance (Booth No. 975). Bank of Scotland had also been booked to exhibit but pulled out several weeks ago.
 
I agree with COT about XO for the most part but if you look at their delivery schedule it will take them a long time to truly be competitive. Only 20 aircraft right now and 127 by 2012. That is only if the OEMs keep up with delivery dates; which is rare.

I understand their model and see the cost savings compared to NJ. It's not exactly apples to apples. I mean they are more a frac/charter hybrid. I don't see the unique, elite and prestigious experience of being a passenger on an aircraft that any Tom Dick or Harry can charter. You could get that for Delta AirElite or any Fly By Night charter service.

Competition? Sure, in the reguards that every operator other than NJA is competition.

Threat to NJA? Not really, or at least not yet. Maybe 10 years from now. Maybe.

We must crush them.:smash: :laugh:
 
I put my money on the NetJets pilots. Who knows what mid and upper management will do....

The us vs. them mentality between management and pilots is counter productive. Let's at least give everyone the benefit of the doubt that we are all doing our best to move in the same direction.

Paddling on only one side of the canoe just makes you go in circles.
 

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