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Netjets and 200/barrel oil

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JetFumes

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 14, 2005
Posts
273
Just curiuos if anyone has any thoughts on how this oil situation will effect the fractionals. I'm considering applying, as I no longer feel that there is a future at Blue. I have thought about NetJets for a long time, but had a hard time giving up the Airline thing. I don't like the slow upgrade at NetJets, but still think it might be worth it. With oil going up and up, I am wondering what the higher ups over there are predicting.
 
Netjets and Oil? Well I will attempt to answer this as best I can although I know others may have a better take on the situation.

Part of what we charge includes the price of fuel, to a certain dollar amount. Once that dollar amount is exceeded, the owners pay the difference. So in the end, it comes down to what the market will bare. What we pay for FBO jet fuel isn't cheap. Right now I have seen prices well over $5.50 a gallon for Jet A. Some places are more, some less. The wealthy always seem to have money, but at a point you may see a reduction in our entry level customers, as well as a reduction in flying. Right now, things are going great. We are still selling planes, selling cards, and there hasn't been a slow down in that aspect. I did hear however that the amount of hours we fly as seen a slight drop off from last year. I'm sure others can add things or correct me if I am wrong.

If you are thinking about getting on with us. Check out our new website for highering www.netjetspilotjobs.com. If I were you I would submit a resume now, and do the thinking later. It may take a month or two to get back to you and even if you get called in for an interview, you can still turn down the job if you come to the conclusion that the job isnt for you. You know all to well that seniority is everything.
 
$200/barrel oil? VERY scary, even for Netjets! But you know, if NJA starts a major downhill slide, where are you going to go anyway? We can absorb price increases more readily than others (airlines, less successful fracs, etc...), so if you see the beginning of the end coming for NJA, it won't be a ball of roses for anyone else in the aviation industry either.

As for upgrade times, yeah, they're getting a bit long here at NJA. But I suspect that will be the case at most places as growth slows along with the economy.

As cldsfr79 mentioned, seniority is everything in this game, so if you're even thinking a little bit about working for us, get the ball rolling now.
 
$200 a barrel oil affects EVERYONE in aviation, regardless of employer. Netjets owners, while better able to weather high fuel prices than most, can reach a price point where their behavior will be affected. Some may not be able to keep flying on their share, some may reduce their flying somewhat, some may shift to a smaller and less expensive aircraft, while others won't give a rip and will keep on trucking as before. The inherent advantage of an organization as large as Netjets is the ability to smooth the peaks and valleys of demand across a large group.

To me, the far greater long-term threat (and one that is closely related to fuel price), is the anti-capitalist, Chicken Little, global warming crowd. The more people they convince that fossil-fuel is destroying the planet, the more pressure there will be to restrict the discovery, extraction, refinement, and use of petroleum fuels. Anytime you restrict supply and create scarcity, the higher the price. And don't kid yourself: there is NO ALTERNATIVE FUEL in existence or on the horizon with the required energy density to be practical on board an aircraft. There are efforts underway to create jet fuel from sources other than crude oil but they closely mimic Jet-A kerosene and offer a very similar carbon footprint and are therefore destructive in the eyes of environmental activists.

Accurate science and facts be damned, Al Gore and his bunch will continue this charade until we're all riding bicycles and every country on the planet has the same standard of living as say, Burma, or Sudan.
 
The biggest single cause of $120-$200 oil is the dollar's decline, a product of the Fed's easy money approach to appease the politicians who want to appease the public on the economy, short term. (Bernanke however has had a hell of a time repairing the wreckage left by Greenspan, and given the severity of the task is not doing too badly.)

Hopefully the Fed will now start to very, very slowly ratchet up interest rates again and reap the longer term rewards of a stable dollar- starting with the bursting of this silly commodity bubble. Granted, the dollar has to remain lowish for a long time to rebalance this country's years and years of consuming far more than it has produced- but the dollar slide trend needs to end.

Ironically, to stop creating destructive bubbles, the best thing for the U.S. economy long term is for us to suffer through some pain short term, i.e. we must not not try and dig out of this slowdown/recession or whatever too quickly, otherwise we'll just create another bubble like we've been doing with oil. But sadly, none of the candidates dares to risk acknowleding this, with most voters having blinkers on for the short term.

As for NetJets, I get the impression their growth plan is much more long term and conservative than the airlines, who are much more nervous about market share, the gain or loss of critical gates and slots, and hub fortresses.

When the company starts to nickel and dime costs such as customer and crew food or the weight of junky stock and Jepps that we burn gas carting about- that's when I will start getting nervous.
 
Does the price of gas effect us at NetJets? Yes

Are we going to go out of business? NOT EVEN CLOSE.

We have a healthy balance sheet.
 
well we STILL have a waiting list to get a plane(share). Straight from the horses mouth in a finalization meeting to a potential I was at the other day
 
The point is the cost of flying on these airplanes is not a crushing factor @ $200/barrel oil.

Less impact than the coming Devastating tax increases...and the impact to the overall economy of high oil prices which is essentially a tax on the cost of everything produced, shipped and consumed. Thats what brought STAGflation of the 1970's. High inflation, high taxes, and high oil prices.

Expensive fuel costs for private flights -- no factor.

Economy crippled by STAGflation ... huge impact.
 
The $200/barrel scenario will affect EVERYONE, and its possible. Hurricane season is almost here, a couple of hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico and we're at $200 or close.

when the price of oil goes up, it hurts the airlines instantly, they increase fares. How many airline tickets does NJ buy on a yealy basis? a s***tload. It affects us in many ways, not just buying fuel at an FBO
 
USAir is the whore of air fares lately. I've seen many last minute tickets go for under $200 with tax. Revenue management airways seems to be staffed by crew scheduling.
 
What happens when oil hits $200?

Our very wealthy owners pay for it.

Yes, it is that simple.:)
 
No, it really isn't....

As other said, $200/bbl oil will put serious brakes on many sectors of the economy, including those that supply our owners with that wealth.

We're not affected too much directly by the oil price, but don't think for a minute that it can't affect our overall business.
 
200-250/bbl and gas at the pump of $6.00 to $10.00 you better believe it will affect us. I predict we will slow down a lot in the next few years IF things don't get better around the world. I see a 10 year upgrade at NetJets not that far off.
 
200-250/bbl and gas at the pump of $6.00 to $10.00 you better believe it will affect us. I predict we will slow down a lot in the next few years IF things don't get better around the world. I see a 10 year upgrade at NetJets not that far off.

SWEET! I just left a 10 year upgrade for NJA!!!!! WTF.

Not a prob though 1st year pay here is better than 10 capt. Pay on reserve where I left.
 
SWEET! I just left a 10 year upgrade for NJA!!!!! WTF.

Not a prob though 1st year pay here is better than 10 capt. Pay on reserve where I left.

Lets hope I wrong. I am so sick of watching all these so called "experts" on CNN CNBC FOX Business about oil will NEVER hit 100 it did. NEVER hit 115 it did. Never hit 125 it did. I am convinced nobody knows how high it might go.

NJA will be OK IMHO but like I said things will slow unless the economy picks back up and soon.
 
anyone see that show last night about running out of "gas?" some scary stuff. 24 hr news and the internet is the worst thing to happen to this world. Even though i'm an FI junky.
 
What happens when oil hits $200?

Our very wealthy owners pay for it.

Yes, it is that simple.:)

I wish it was that simple.

I fly for NJ, I think and hope NJ will be around for many, many years. But to think this won't affect Netjets or the frax is plain ridicoulus.

As far as the 10 year upgrade at NJ, give it a couple of years.....
 
What happens when oil hits $200?

Our very wealthy owners pay for it.

Yes, it is that simple.:)

And I guess you still believe in Santa Claus, the Easter bunny and even more importantly the tooth fairy. NJA is a great place but don't think for a minute your owners will continue to pay whatever the price increase is forever. Some owners still have to justify spending money to the shareholders. If money is not coming in like it used to something must go. It is like the food chain, if there is nothing coming in on the bottom it doesn't matter how big you are at the top you could get hungry. It is that simple Cap Daddy.
 
And I guess you still believe in Santa Claus, the Easter bunny and even more importantly the tooth fairy. NJA is a great place but don't think for a minute your owners will continue to pay whatever the price increase is forever. Some owners still have to justify spending money to the shareholders. If money is not coming in like it used to something must go. It is like the food chain, if there is nothing coming in on the bottom it doesn't matter how big you are at the top you could get hungry. It is that simple Cap Daddy.

One could also say more companys will need to buy fractional shares to increase productivity.

Another consideration, companys that may have a tought time justifying whole airplane ownership may trade down to a fraction of an airplane.

The individual owner is paying $5,000/hr+ for this luxury. I doubt adding another 1,000 or so dollars will cause people to return to airline travel.

While the fractional model is not unbreakable it's very solid.
 
Just curiuos if anyone has any thoughts on how this oil situation will effect the fractionals. I'm considering applying, as I no longer feel that there is a future at Blue. I have thought about NetJets for a long time, but had a hard time giving up the Airline thing. I don't like the slow upgrade at NetJets, but still think it might be worth it. With oil going up and up, I am wondering what the higher ups over there are predicting.

The rich get richer and the rest of us get poorer.. The people riding on the NetJets fleet couldn't care less what they pay for fuel.

Why do you think that while the rest of this industry is in turmoil and airlines are failing left and right, NetJets, FO and XOJet are still growing like gangbusters?

Take the job... if security is what you're worried about.. but be prepared to do the "Ass Kissing and Bag Totten" that they'll demand from you. This isn't the A320 anymore my friend.
 
Make no mistake about it, flying at all fractional companies and by and large nearly all charter companies is down significantly in 2008 vs 2006 and 2007.

Analysis shows a 15% to 20% decrease in private aircraft revenue movements in 2008 vs 2006 and 2007. This is a result of the economy, decreased [individual or corporate] cash flow, and higher variable costs. The financial markets have dried up and the major institutions are extremely reluctant to loan money to operators in our segment of the industry. XO Jet had to go to the Middle East for additional high risk leveraging where in fact the investors bet against XO Jets success through super accelerated depreciation – in hopes they would recapture assets worth far more than the residual balance owed by XO Jet.

At $200 a barrel it only gets worse for everyone… Nobody is invincible and the notion that NetJets is invincible is naiveté. NetJets is simply more durable than the others (economy of scale and financial backing). At $200 a barrel BOHICA (Bend Over Here It Comes Again) and buckle up it's going to be a bumpy (ups and downs) five (or so) years.

The healthiest and most viable company with the strongest customer/brand loyalty will gain market share in a down market. NetJets must improve to assure it's standing or it will loose ground to the competition. The healthiest company is then positioned to capitalize [the most] on the upside.

IMHO, :cool:
 
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Make no mistake about it, flying at all fractional companies and by and large nearly all charter companies is down significantly in 2008 vs 2006 and 2007.

Analysis shows a 15% to 20% decrease in private aircraft revenue movements in 2008 vs 2006 and 2007

Source please?
 
I respect everyone's opinion to the fuel price question, as opposed to some. I actually had a conversation with a major CEO owner prior to taking him to the BH shareholder's meeting. I posed this very question. He said he couldn't care less about fuel fees. He wanted access to the large fleet and premium benefits that NJA provides. Will it effect some? Sure. Will it drastically effect NJA? I doubt it, but we will see that's a given.
 
Make no mistake about it, flying at all fractional companies and by and large nearly all charter companies is down significantly in 2008 vs 2006 and 2007.

Analysis shows a 15% to 20% decrease in private aircraft revenue movements in 2008 vs 2006 and 2007

Source please?

Just remember what I wrote above and do a look back in 5 years (2012). The market is changing as is owner/cardholder flying patterns.

2008:
Flex - Near breakeven (at the pilot group's expense) with no growth.
CS - Another $30 to $40 million loss with marginal to no [net new] growth.
FO - New HGI aquisition cooked books with more than $50 million (real money) in losses. *Could have* made positive numbers with a fair labor agreement.
NJA - Will make between 2006 and 2007 numbers with approx. 75 net new planes.

2009 and 2010:
Go back to 2003 and 2004 new owner sales and retention data...

5 year industry segmant cycle with NJA hitting 800 planes and just over 4,000 pilots [best case] year end 2012. If NJA doesn't have 800 planes and just over 4,000 pilots by year end 2012, the industry segment will be down to 3 [true] industry segmant competitors. NetJets owner/card retention will be base on product delivery and customer service (brand loyalty). Fine print: acts of God, war, terrorism, and/or a major a/c accident make the WAG null and void.

Other major concerns: 1) will private jet travel become the next Hummer enviro negative stigma (cost of carbon off sets per EU), 2) [growing] State by State private (fractional) jet taxation (per CA), 3) FAA funding and how private jets are assessed/taxed (User Fees), 4) ATC Next Gen and potential slots (per EU), 5) foreign ownership (does Lufthansa [as one exmple a la Jet Blue] buy or startup a fractional provider in the US with a major cash infusion and compete with existing fractional providers [Virgin maybe]?).

I could go on - the economy, fixed and variable operating costs, public perception for public companies, and competitive market are different than we have ever seen over the past 10 and 20 years. Add to the list above, if the economy turns around, [more] Private Equity parts supply chain, infrastruction (FBO), and OEM acquisitions.

It's all about brand loyalty (safety, product delivery, and service)!!!

That's my [very] educated forecast.
 

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