More pressure on Comair....

[On Your Six]

Is the fact that ASA will be losing their ATRs part of your understanding? Let's see... Take away airplanes with 70 seats and replace them with 50 seat airplanes. Is that expansion to you?

Sounds like ASA may get even more CRJ-700s given that the order for 200s could possibly be converted to 700s - the option exists (not sure about scope issues but it could happen). The RFP gave the option to swap 200s with 700s. Not sure about the ATR72 reduction schedule but it is likely to not happen all at once - perhaps you could enlighten me with the schedule.

Notice that ASA gets the expansion in terms of aircraft and Comair does not. Sounds like cost might be an issue in this case. Or do you have a better answer?

 

[chperplt]

Notice that ASA gets the expansion in terms of aircraft and Comair does not. Sounds like cost might be an issue in this case. Or do you have a better answer?

How many total aircraft does Comair have? What about ASA? How many aircraft will ASA have once the RFP exansion is complete?

 

[Pez D. Spencer]

Sounds like ASA may get even more CRJ-700s given that the order for 200s could possibly be converted to 700s - the option exists (not sure about scope issues but it could happen).

Are you guessing about this or do you have an actual source?

Notice that ASA gets the expansion in terms of aircraft and Comair does not. Sounds like cost might be an issue in this case. Or do you have a better answer?

Notice too that ASA is negotiating a new contract and Comair is not. That might just level the playing field.

 

[atrdriver]

ASA IS NOT losing it's ATR's. We are giving back 7 of them, to bring the fleet size to 12. So, We lose 7 66 passenger airplanes, and gain 25 50 passengers...not a math wiz here, but that sure sounds like a total gain in seats to me.

atrdriver

 

[On Your Six]

How many total aircraft does Comair have? What about ASA? How many aircraft will ASA have once the RFP exansion is complete?

Read ATRDriver's response. The current number of aircraft in your fleets doesn't matter. What matters is the additional aircraft coming in the future (expansion), and, as far as I know, Comair won't be getting too many next year vs. ASA which will be adding quite a few. That means fewer upgrades - right? ASA pilots are paid less than Comair pilots. Coincidence?

 

[chperplt]

Dude,

You need to read the entire thread again.

Who do you work for? Mesa wasn't it??

 

[sweptback]

Medflyer, c'mon now. You know what I am talking about - more aircraft and a substantial increase in new routes. We are talking expansion opportunities. Has CHQ and Skywest flying increased as % of total regional flying for Delta over the past few years? Yes. Your increase in ASM could be due to the addition of CRJ-700s.

My understanding is that ASA will get 15 CRJ-700s this year and potentially more CRJ-700s taken from an order of 25 CRJ-200s that can be upgraded (from the RFP). Sounds like Comair is too expensive to share in the growth - and ASA benefits... Hmmmmm. Is that too slow for you to understand?

Do you even know what an ASM is?

Hint... it's a somewhat a measure of an airline's size. It's really the measure of the "traffic" generated by that airline.

More ASMs could mean more larger jets coming online, or more ASMs could mean more flying being done with current airplanes. Either way that's growth, and that's good, right?

Think about it, I could have 1 airplane and run it 10 flights a day at 500 miles each, or 10 airplanes, but run each one flight a day at 500 miles each. The ASMs for both would be the same, no? Obviously there's a lot of room for growth in the second scenario, even though the number of aircraft stays fixed.

So it is possible for an airline to grow and expand without receiving new airplanes. All the airline has to do is use their current airplanes more effectively. This could mean pilot growth based on how thin they currently are.

 

[On Your Six]

Do you even know what an ASM is?

Hint... it's a somewhat a measure of an airline's size. It's really the measure of the "traffic" generated by that airline.

More ASMs could mean more larger jets coming online, or more ASMs could mean more flying being done with current airplanes. Either way that's growth, and that's good, right?

Think about it, I could have 1 airplane and run it 10 flights a day at 500 miles each, or 10 airplanes, but run each one flight a day at 500 miles each. The ASMs for both would be the same, no? Obviously there's a lot of room for growth in the second scenario, even though the number of aircraft stays fixed.

So it is possible for an airline to grow and expand without receiving new airplanes. All the airline has to do is use their current airplanes more effectively. This could mean pilot growth based on how thin they currently are.

Yes, I know what an ASM is - but the cause of growth, like you said, could be one of many variables. When I talk about growth, I am referring to aircraft and routes, not utilization in this case. Again, has Comair actually grown much in terms of aircraft or new routes? That's the question here - and the answer is NO - no significant growth in terms of aircraft. ASA will see more growth while Comair stagnates and the FOs sit in their seats for a long, long time...

We are getting caught up in SEMANTICS while the main point is being ignored - Comair is more expensive than ASA and most other regionals in terms of pilot costs. This could be detrimental to growth opportunities because of Delta's cash crunch and its need to reduce operating costs (including the cost of feed). The original article above talks about Comair's high cost structure vs. other regionals but you guys want to avoid the discussion. On an apples-to-apples basis Comair's costs are higher than other regionals, and its growth will likely suffer. But don't take my opinion - just read the article....

Can anyone at Comair tell me why they think they are being left out of the aircraft expansion that ASA is getting (why only ASA vs. both)? Let's focus on that vs. personal attacks and problems with semantics...

 

[FDJ2]

You make yourself look like a real fool when you keep saying this.

Comair's domestic ASM's are up 25.3% this year (through Aug 31).
ASA's domestic ASM's are up 15.3% this year.

How much will CMR's ASMs be up next year when compared to ASA? Who will see a greater increase in DCI ASMs in 2005 CHQ, SKWST, or CMR?

The heady days of 85% growth in the few years since your acquisition are coming to a skreaching halt.

 

[chperplt]

Can anyone at Comair tell me why they think they are being left out of the aircraft expansion that ASA is getting (why only ASA vs. both)? Let's focus on that vs. personal attacks and problems with semantics...

You didn't do very well with reading comprehension in school, did you? You say I'm not answering your questions, but you just aren't getting the answer.

Comair is being left out next year for aircraft expansion just like ASA was left out in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Comair as you say was more expensive then too. Comair has more airplanes than ASA and next years expansion will even those numbers out.

 

[On Your Six]

You didn't do very well with reading comprehension in school, did you? You say I'm not answering your questions, but you just aren't getting the answer.

Comair is being left out next year for aircraft expansion just like ASA was left out in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Comair as you say was more expensive then too. Comair has more airplanes than ASA and next years expansion will even those numbers out.

That's BS and you know it. Delta is not trying to just "even out" the fleet numbers and taking turns in terms of aircraft deliveries. It's not that simple. Delta had a lot more cash back then and was financially more stable.

Comair is more expensive now than the other regionals and Delta is bleeding cash. Growth seems to be going elsewhere. Can you draw a connection? Did you read the article and the analyst comments? I guezz I needs moor skools.

 

[MedFlyer]

On an apples-to-apples basis Comair's costs are higher than other regionals, and its growth will likely suffer. But don't take my opinion - just read the article....

Again, show me some hard numbers that show Comair has a higher cost than other regionals. I know you won't because you can't. Your article doesn't have numbers, it's just people's opinions. There is NO proof that Comair's costs are higher.

Sadly, all the mainline pilots are falling for managements ploy. Whenever mainline costs come up, all the mainline pilots cry "It's not my fault." But when RJ costs come up, you automatically blame the pilots. You are so desperate to spread your misery on those who are having success that you will stoop to any low. Very sad........

You ever think the reason that Comair isn't growing is because DL doesn't want Comair to get too big and powerful. If management learned anything from the Comair strike is that they can't afford to let any regional get too strong (look how much the Comair strike cost DL!!!). Right now, Comair is about 25% bigger than ASA. In order to keep ASA a similar size to Comair (and offset the retirements of the ATR's), the planes will go to ASA. Plus, DL sends some planes to the contract carriers because they don't want the wholly-owneds getting too strong either.

It's the portfolio concept that management is always talking about. You never want any part of your portfolio to become too dominant.

 

[standaman]

It's the portfolio concept that management is always talking about. You never want any part of your portfolio to become too dominant.

This seems reasonable. So if ASA and Comair even up in 2005 then we will need to have this arguement in 2005 to determine who is better on paper. By then Delta would have released any new growth for 2006. That will be an indicator of who is better on the books.

My humble opinion

 

[wms]

According to SB, ASA is not paid fee per departure, but a fee per asm. He also says that no one in the DCI portfolio operates 50 seaters for less than ASA, that is why we got 25 RFP aircraft. From Skip's mouth to our ears at the DFW closure meeting.

Also, you cannot believe a word FB says. I don't believe for a second what he or anyone says about DCI financials and their impact on DAL, and neither do creditors. They twist the numbers to fit the moment and the agenda. The statements from DAL/DCI leadership contradict each other and show their lack of honesty in reporting the true picture. The Kremlin and glass tower operate in an ethics free zone.

 

[On Your Six]

Again, show me some hard numbers that show Comair has a higher cost than other regionals. I know you won't because you can't. Your article doesn't have numbers, it's just people's opinions. There is NO proof that Comair's costs are higher.

Sadly, all the mainline pilots are falling for managements ploy. Whenever mainline costs come up, all the mainline pilots cry "It's not my fault." But when RJ costs come up, you automatically blame the pilots. You are so desperate to spread your misery on those who are having success that you will stoop to any low. Very sad........

You ever think the reason that Comair isn't growing is because DL doesn't want Comair to get too big and powerful. If management learned anything from the Comair strike is that they can't afford to let any regional get too strong (look how much the Comair strike cost DL!!!). Right now, Comair is about 25% bigger than ASA. In order to keep ASA a similar size to Comair (and offset the retirements of the ATR's), the planes will go to ASA. Plus, DL sends some planes to the contract carriers because they don't want the wholly-owneds getting too strong either.

It's the portfolio concept that management is always talking about. You never want any part of your portfolio to become too dominant.

Guess what - Delta could file for bankruptcy soon. The portfolio argument doesn't fly when Delta is bleeding cash. That may have been the case a few years back but times have changed and Delta is scrutinizing costs now more and more. You blame this viewpoint on the mainline pilots (I have zero affiliation with Delta) and yet all of the analysts in this and other articles agree that Comair costs are too high - it's a fact and many people seem to ignore this. Your managment has stated that too (not that you can always agree with management). I am not the one who has the numbers - Delta has apparently screwed with the numbers (that's what the article claims) and they are ambiguous... Can you provide the actual numbers yourself and prove that you are super-profitable?

I am getting tired of this circular argument. Re-read the article. Tell me if you think it glorifies Comair and states that it is irrefutably super-profitable (Delta's saving grace) and that people believe Comair is actually a very cost-effective operation. Please verify that for me. Cuz I am getting tired of the denial... Sorry to say it, but times have changed and Comair might need to change as well to be more cost-effective while Delta starts its recovery...

 

[mkingmei]

Just like everything in this industry, we don't know a **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** thing unless we are the decision-makers (which we are not, until contract time comes around).

We can sit here and argue about all this crap all night, when in all reality none of us know what is going to happen.

We all know that everything that comes out of managements' mouth is a lie anyhow, so don't listen to those guys. Some of them don't even really know what is going on, like Leo Mullin (he was sheltered by "yes" men the whole time).

My .02 cents.

 

[wms]

ASA and CA are already cost effective. Even in our negotiations and kool-aid classes ASA mgmt haven't been able to make the case that we aren't. And have even said the pilots will get a raise. Taking a pay cut and qualifying for food stamps again so a ML pilot who's selling the summer house can feel like we're all sharing the pain is not justification for a pay cut when you're already under paid.

Also, ASA/CA will not necessarily go BK with DAL if it happens. Again, according to our mgmt for what it's worth, they will have to see if it's beneficial to join them in BK or be on our own. If we're on our own we can expand because our credit is still good. But we would lose protection (ie from repos) afforded by CH11. Creditors could hold ASA/CA assets hostage to get money from our parent company because we would not be in BK. If we joined them in BK the creditors could not touch us.

 

[MedFlyer]

You blame this viewpoint on the mainline pilots (I have zero affiliation with Delta) and yet all of the analysts in this and other articles agree that Comair costs are too high - it's a fact and many people seem to ignore this.

It is NOT a fact...it's an OPINION. The article contains OPINION's...not facts. Every analyst quoted is giving his OPINION...not stating facts. You might want to learn the difference.

 

[On Your Six]

It is NOT a fact...it's an OPINION. The article contains OPINION's...not facts. Every analyst quoted is giving his OPINION...not stating facts. You might want to learn the difference.

Where are your facts? What are you bringing to the table? How can you refute these "opinions"? Do you know something the many analysts don't? Do you honestly believe Comair and ASA are as cost-effective as CHQ and Mesa? Could Delta actually save money by using CHQ or even Mesa on new routes or frequencies vs. Comair or ASA? It all comes down to unit costs and I'd be curious to see how they compare. Evidently the analysts believe Comair's costs are too high - that's what the article says and I am sure they understand the economics better than you do (despite the ambiguity surrounding Delta's numbers).

I am NOT a proponent of Comair or ASA guys getting paid less (everyone deserves a good wage), but I acknowledge the new cost-cutting reality of the industry. That's all. It seems like the argument was the same for the Mainline guys at one point and now the argument has shifted to the regionals. It's all about being as cost-effective as the competition - and in this case, CHQ, Skywest, Skyway and even Mesa are the competition.

 

[chperplt]

OY6,

Where's your dog in this fight?? If you don't work for either DAL, Comair, or ASA, why are you getting so riled up with this topic?