More money for USAir

[CheapFlyer]

Just some food for thought:

I wonder how much of the $125 Republic financing came from the Delta connection profits. In other words, do you think Deltas "portfolio concept" is actually now helping USAirways, its competitor?

-CF

 

[General Lee]

Mgt for DL has already said they have just about mtg'd everything but ACA/CMR with the AMEX deal. Now if you believe DL will "Make Money" in the Spring and Summer, then that would be a basis for your projection. However, I have my doubts they will make money in those 6 months, and they cannot afford to take a chance. The ACA/CMR deal will have to be struck in the next 30 days, or the UAIR deal will have to unravel to keep DL out of 11. Oil below $45 bbl would also be needed. What was the cash on 12/31/04....$1.8B? What do you think that number will be on 3/31/05?

ps: I hope your right.

Look, you said ACA and it is ASA. Two totally different airlines. (ACA is now Indy) If, and I say If, we were to go Chap 11, I think we could get exit financing from different sources, and many Sky Team members would also probably chip in, since that relationship does help them out too. Why do you keep coming up with the "30 day" time limit? We are having a good Spring so far, and the Spring and Summer are our best loads, and the surcharges are sticking to keep the affects of high fuel prices down. If we were to have trouble, it would be after the Summer season ends. By then we will have found a buyer and bought ourselves some time to get through the slow Fall and early Winter time. We have lines of credit through AMEX and GE, and that should keep our cash on hand high enough. Susan Donofrio thinks the liquidity is fine, along with Ray Neidl, and they both met with management. Have you?

And, I got it wrong--it is Miss Cleo. (Thanks MOM) I hope too Delta stays away from Chap 11...


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

This just illustrates how desperate Delta truly is. There hasn't been a better example during this whole downturn of burning the furniture to heat the house than Delta's "need" to spin off Comair and/or ASA.

Wether they sell off assets or whole things, or IPO either/or, their value is very low. Regionals are the ultimate commodity now. Everyone has jets and lots of them. Everyone is underbidding everyone for growth. Everyone is flying 90 hours a month with self funded retirements. Heck, everyone is flying for everyone in the first place (Lorenzo's wet dream).

But, the majors still have to pay for the service. While there has been lots of talk about "risk sharing" over the past few years, fact is it just hasn't materialized. Regionals still run on guaranteed profit margins. A monkey could run a regional airline and make it profitable as long as they had a contract. No one will buy Comair without a nice, cushy, long term contract with guaranteed growth.

Even then the "experts" (yeah, I know) all guesstimate Comair's value for example to be around 400 to 500M. Delta will then immediately have to start paying around 200M a year (or more with growth) for the lift. This equates to little more than taking out a loan with the mafia. If they spin off Comair this year it gains Delta maybe 300M for the year. Total gain from the sale will be 100M by the end of next year, and the "value" of said sale would be -100M or more the following year. Double the bleeding if its Comair and ASA.

Hardly the day saving, time buying cash cow people are making it out to be. If Delta does sell us, it shows how truly desperate they are, and more importantly, how prescious little time they have left for the long awaited rapid revenue recovery and/or sudden drop in fuel prices that let's face it, ain't gonna happen.

P38,

How can you say selling ASA and Comair wasn't part of the plan all along? We heard a brief outline of what may happen in that crew lounge meeting, and I believe that was one of the things that was on the table. The VP said it was a better idea to make it more competitive and to get back to the core business which was Delta Airlines. He said it was going to be a tough year, but in the end was going to be fine. I am going to believe him......



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[FLB717]

How would the Chitugina (sp) E190 affect the scope limits at DAL, ACA was forced out do to the 70 seat limit. Would that cause Chiniuqa (sp)to be removed from DAL Land?

 

[reido737]

Something else kind of interesting............. I've noticed some white block overs where the registration numbers are on the tail of several PSA aircraft in CLT recently, with new numbers on them that end in MD. This is the same suffix used on the mid atlantic aircraft! Wonder if everything is being neatly packaged up together? Anyone know anything about this?

MD registration was lent to PSA so they could take delivery of the remaining 700's.The registration numbers will be given back to us airways in the near future.

 

[Indypilot]

How would the Chitugina (sp) E190 affect the scope limits at DAL, ACA was forced out do to the 70 seat limit. Would that cause Chiniuqa (sp)to be removed from DAL Land?

CHQ won't be operating them. Republic will be operating them eventually. They have a few more months to get a certificate and get the UAL 170 shipped over to republic to satisfy the AA agreement and their scope. Once that is complete, they can put the 190's on the republic ticket because United's scope doesn't disaprove of flying the 190's for a different major, all that united's scope prevents is flying it under United colors. All 50 seat flying will be done by CHQ, that will satisfy the scope of UA,AA,DL,US. Then the 70 and 90 seats will be flown on the REP certificate. AA can't stop that from happening,neither can UA's scope, neither can delta's scope. The only question left to be answer is where are the delta 170's going to end up if they have orders? (I cant remember). If they are on the republic ticket, they can't operate the 190's, and if they operate them on the CHQ ticket, they break AA's scope, unless the APA wants another $500,000.

Think of it this way, if ACA still had the ACJet certificate, their might have been a way for us to keep the DO's, but management just didn't want to do that, they wanted one airline with one focus (losing lots of cash, he he)

 

[General Lee]

How would the Chitugina (sp) E190 affect the scope limits at DAL, ACA was forced out do to the 70 seat limit. Would that cause Chiniuqa (sp)to be removed from DAL Land?

No, in our last huge Agreement( effective Dec 1st) we allowed our DCI carriers to fly planes over 70 seats FOR SOMEBODY ELSE. We still have a 70 seat limitation for the number allowed, and our VP of flt ops, who is also incharge of DCI, said that would not change. (In that now infamous lounge meeting about 1 month ago)


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

ha ha...

 

[Indypilot]

Thanks for clearing that up general, so there you have it, all 50 seaters flown by CHQ, and the 170's and 190's flown by REP. Solves all scope limitations.

 

[General Lee]

Thanks for clearing that up general, so there you have it, all 50 seaters flown by CHQ, and the 170's and 190's flown by REP. Solves all scope limitations.

Via a codeshare? How else? Delta mainline can only fly planes over 70 seats, and there are a limited number of 70 seaters for DCI. If it will be a codeshare, then we would have to sell seats on Republic's flights, and they would have to be a stand alone airline. That will take YEARS. Also, sounds like Republic wants to get around the United and AA scope clauses first, and I also believe Dalpa has to agree with any codesharing. I just don't see that going your way. Sorry. Clear yet? I think it is.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Indypilot]

Looking at the people that RJET flies for and their scope.

AA - Nothing over 50 seats period
UA - Nothing over 70 seats, allows more than 70 for other airlines
DL - Nothing over 70 seats, allows more than 70 for other airlines
US - Not sure, but I'm guessing up to 100 seats can be flow by a regional


So if RJET flies all of their 50 seaters (AA,UA,DL,US) under the CHQ certificate, none of the scopes are broken.

That leaves the 170's and 190's. For United, they will fly the 170 on the REP certificate. For Delta, they will fly the 170 on the REP certificate. for Us Air, they will fly the 170 on the REP certificate.

So far no scope has been broke right. (The only one in danger is the AA one which is gotten around by the REP certificate.)

Now lets add 190's into the mix. IF Us Air scope allows them to be flown by Republic, then because they are under a different paint job, it is not breaking the DL or the UAL scope correct?

Or does the delta scope specifically say that the larger than 70 seat airplanes must be on a different certificate? Is it just the paint job, or is it the certificate that the DL scope allows?

For instance if ASA wasn't wholly owned, could they operate 90 seat airplanes for say, America West under the same cerificate. Would that violate your scope?

 

[DASHDRIVER]

Quick Correction:


UAL: up to 70 except AWAC who is authorized to fly up 18, 100 seat BAE-146's or replacement aircraft limited at 100,000 lbs max gross. So no 190's but the CRJ900 would be an option.

regards DD

 

[General Lee]

Looking at the people that RJET flies for and their scope.

AA - Nothing over 50 seats period
UA - Nothing over 70 seats, allows more than 70 for other airlines
DL - Nothing over 70 seats, allows more than 70 for other airlines
US - Not sure, but I'm guessing up to 100 seats can be flow by a regional


So if RJET flies all of their 50 seaters (AA,UA,DL,US) under the CHQ certificate, none of the scopes are broken.

That leaves the 170's and 190's. For United, they will fly the 170 on the REP certificate. For Delta, they will fly the 170 on the REP certificate. for Us Air, they will fly the 170 on the REP certificate.

So far no scope has been broke right. (The only one in danger is the AA one which is gotten around by the REP certificate.)

Now lets add 190's into the mix. IF Us Air scope allows them to be flown by Republic, then because they are under a different paint job, it is not breaking the DL or the UAL scope correct?

Or does the delta scope specifically say that the larger than 70 seat airplanes must be on a different certificate? Is it just the paint job, or is it the certificate that the DL scope allows?

For instance if ASA wasn't wholly owned, could they operate 90 seat airplanes for say, America West under the same cerificate. Would that violate your scope?

Yes, ASA could now fly E190s for AWA, but not for Delta. Republic could fly E170s for DL, and E190s for USAir, but not for DL. Got it?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Indypilot]

Yep, got it.

So to answer the question as to whether or not RJET could operate the 190's, The answer is IF usair scope allows it, then yes RJET could hypothetically operate the 190's without breaking anyone's scope.


So now another few questions to whomever can answer

What exactly is UsAirways scope with their regionals?

Are the mid atlantic 190 orders options? are they 170 orders with the option to upgrade to the 190's, or are they just straight up 190 orders?

Is anyone else thinking that 2 maybe 3 regionals, that also fly for united, that will control the usair board, is kind of weird? Not being a conspiracy theorist here, but think about it for a bit. If mesa gets a deal as well, about 9 board seats and 60-75% of us air equity will be controlled by 3 regionals that are also united regionals...............

US will basically be a collection of assets that united can control throught their regionals. When both come out of Ch11, the takeover could begin. The last time it was washington area competition that stopped it, now the equation is changed a bit with our existance at IAD. Just curious if the thought had crossed anyone else mind.

 

[lowecur]

Look, you said ACA and it is ASA. Two totally different airlines. (ACA is now Indy) If, and I say If, we were to go Chap 11, I think we could get exit financing from different sources, and many Sky Team members would also probably chip in, since that relationship does help them out too. Why do you keep coming up with the "30 day" time limit? We are having a good Spring so far, and the Spring and Summer are our best loads, and the surcharges are sticking to keep the affects of high fuel prices down. If we were to have trouble, it would be after the Summer season ends. By then we will have found a buyer and bought ourselves some time to get through the slow Fall and early Winter time. We have lines of credit through AMEX and GE, and that should keep our cash on hand high enough.

Exit financing would not be a problem, provided your business model was profitable or close to it while in Chapt 11.

I believe you have burned through the GE line, and you were supposed to draw $250M from the AMEX line on 3/1/05. Look GL, if you have anywhere near the loss that you have from operations in the 4th Q($775M), then time is not on your side.

 

[General Lee]

Exit financing would not be a problem, provided your business model was profitable or close to it while in Chapt 11.

I believe you have burned through the GE line, and you were supposed to draw $250M from the AMEX line on 3/1/05. Look GL, if you have anywhere near the loss that you have from operations in the 4th Q($775M), then time is not on your side.

Lowecur,

I still can't believe you stated ACA twice(instead of ASA), when ACA isn't even in the picture. You seem to have an "analcyst" point of view, without really knowing the specifics. Your knowledge of finance seems pretty good, but maybe in other industries. You haven't sat down with people who really are in the know, like the analysts I have pointed out who have ACTUALLY SAT DOWN AND TALKED TO OUR MANAGEMENT. Susan Donofrio still has a "buy" rating for Delta. Is she trying to ruin her reputation with her clients? Does she know something that you don't. I think so. I think our losses will get smaller, and fuel surcharges will help. If we sell parts or all of our DCI assets, we will have time on our side for a while, and maybe that is what we need until the other large savings initiatives kick in. We are on our way. Other than that, not much else can be done. The Simplifares program was created to EVENTUALLY produce more revenue---via volume. We closed an unprofitable hub and at the same time created a more efficeint hub in ATL. Things are moving forward...


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[ERJDRVR]

Keep in mind Republic & Chautauqua are the same pilots on the same seniority list. Word on the street is that we are adding the 90 pilots from Shuttle America & their certif to slide around the AA scope clause. Simply a shell game to satisfy dif major clauses.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

some of your facts are incorrect...

AA - Nothing over 50 seats period

So if RJET flies all of their 50 seaters (AA,UA,DL,US) under the CHQ certificate, none of the scopes are broken.

So far no scope has been broke right. (The only one in danger is the AA one which is gotten around by the REP certificate.)
QUOTE]

SCOPE was violated at AA with the TWA feed flying as American Connection (AX).

AA continued to fly with the AX and grew AX feed. A $23.6 million award was awarded to the APA for the violation. I am awaiting my check of $1200 to $1800.

Even when CHQ flew the bigger RJ for another carrier, it still violates the SCOPE at AA/APA.

 

[lowecur]

Lowecur,

I still can't believe you stated ACA twice(instead of ASA), when ACA isn't even in the picture. I should try "spinning" like you do, maybe that will clear my head. You seem to have an "analcyst" point of view, without really knowing the specifics. Maybe you an your goombah friend Mike do lunch whenever possible, so that you are brought up to date. Your knowledge of finance seems pretty good, but maybe in other industries. Yes, Insurance. You haven't sat down with people who really are in the know, like the analysts I have pointed out who have ACTUALLY SAT DOWN AND TALKED TO OUR MANAGEMENT. Susan Donofrio Another Goombah still has a "buy" rating for Delta. Is she trying to ruin her reputation with her clients? No, but maybe she believes another Italian would never embellish the truth to her directly . Does she know something that you don't. I think so. I think our losses will get smaller, and fuel surcharges will help. If we sell parts or all of our DCI assets, we will have time on our side for a while, and maybe that is what we need until the other large savings initiatives kick in. We are on our way. I hope so, but I can't wait for the 1st Q numbers. Other than that, not much else can be done. The Simplifares program was created to EVENTUALLY produce more revenue---via volume. We closed an unprofitable hub and at the same time created a more efficeint hub in ATL. Things are moving forward...


Bye Bye--General Lee

.....No disrespect intended as I am 1/2 Sicilian and the rest Irish. Happy St. Pattys day!

 

[General Lee]

.....No disrespect intended as I am 1/2 Sicilian and the rest Irish. Happy St. Pattys day!

Really? I am 1/2 Irish and the other half Peruvian Indian. I am 5 feet tall(on a good day) but can drink 12 shots of whiskey and still win a bar fight.(always hit LOW---in the gut--I can't reach any higher) I need a booster seat sitting in the 757, though.(the stews call me Tattoo)


Hey, I am sure the numbers won't be great Q1, but they will be getting better as time goes on. I hope we continue to have "time" and a sale of DCI may give us that. Those "goombahs" you were writing about actually have had a look at the "plan" and hopefully they liked it. Thank gawd we have had some fuel surcharges stick, because otherwise we would be sinking even faster.


Bye Bye--General Lee