Mins Dropping

[on autopilot]

In this hiring enviroment, I am starting to see mins starting to drop again. How low do you think they will go and who will be the first?

Current 800/100

Was 1200/500

I also understand the wash out rate is abnormally high right now. Anyone know what is going on with that?

 

[Abernathy]

Who are you with

 

[Max Q]

They think the root of the problem is the lack of qualified pilots? Nooooooo...

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

In this hiring enviroment, I am starting to see mins starting to drop again. How low do you think they will go and who will be the first?

Current 800/100

Was 1200/500

I also understand the wash out rate is abnormally high right now. Anyone know what is going on with that?

The wash out rate probably high because there's tons of pilots applying for one job. As soon as they're short on applicants, they'll start pushing people through.

 

[ackattacker]

The wash out rate is high because you pretty much have to be a loser and a moron to want to work in this industry any more. Also, you ain't seen 'nothin yet.

 

[CX880]

They should require some kind of advanced turbine training for low timers.

 

[atpcliff]

There's tons of pilots applying for one job.

And that is why they are lowering minimums. The more pilots that there are, the lower the mins.

If they only get two resumes for one spot, they will raise the mins to 10,000 TT/5000 ME.

Does any of the above make any sense?

Read another poster respond to me to say that China raising salaries proved that there was a glut of pilots.

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

And that is why they are lowering minimums. The more pilots that there are, the lower the mins.

If they only get two resumes for one spot, they will raise the mins to 10,000 TT/5000 ME.

Does any of the above make any sense?

Read another poster respond to me to say that China raising salaries proved that there was a glut of pilots.

You are taking a sentence fragment out of context. Once again my logic is referring to the wash out rate, not mins. Furthermore, just because mins are being lowered doesn't mean that there aren't pilots applying. Maybe HR prefers an 800 hr pilot with no check ride busts over a 3000 hr pilot with 2 failures and a DUI. Or perhaps a high time Guy answered a panel question not quite correctly. All I'm saying is that when there is an actual shortage, those failures will no longer matter, and the washout rate will decrease as pilots will be getting pushed through training to fill seats.

 

[atpcliff]

Right now, many of the regionals are finding only 1/2 of the pilots planned are showing up for newhire class.

Does that mean there's an actual shortage, or an excess of pilots?

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

Right now, many of the regionals are finding only 1/2 of the pilots planned are showing up for newhire class.

Does that mean there's an actual shortage, or an excess of pilots?

Well I'd have to ask where you're getting this information about 1/2 planned showings up. There are definetly more pilots than jobs. Check comair furlough numbers. Check mesa furlough numbers. That's not including your CFI dying to move on.

 

[atpcliff]

If you really want to know if there is a shortage, or an excess of pilots, spend about a week reading aviation news, including propilotworld, airlinepillotcentral and pprune.org, and then get back to me.

There are ALWAYS some airlines hiring, and some with furloughs. Those individual airlines have nothing to do with the overall situation for pilot hiring.

It's like saying that London was cold last week, so that proves Global Warming is false.

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

You're saying then that there's suddenly a shortage? You've got be kidding me. My company (psa) just recently recalled all the furloughs after 2.5 years on the street. The only ones hiring are a few regionals and they're turning people away for having too much time. Take a look at some of the posts on this board. Ill also add that analogy about weather is not applicable in any form to this discussion. No analogy is need here. Its like saying that there's a shortage of regional pilots when two regionals just laid off 800 pilots. I may be off on the total number but you get what I'm saying

 

[atpcliff]

Atlas is hiring, and we had to drop our minimums. Southern, Kalitta, Omni, National, Southwest (and AirTran would be if they hadn't merged), SkyWest, ASA, ExpressJet, Compass, Pinnacle, Hawaiin, Alaska, Air Wisconsin, USAir, AAEagle, Emirates, Qatar, SkyDubai, Etihad, Kenya Airways, Cathay, KAL, various airlines in India and China, and throughtout Asia, and American is planning to hire this year, and Continental would be hiring if they hadn't merged.

Salaries for an ERJ-145 Capt are up to $10K/month, Airbus-320 Capt $16K/mo., and 747-400 Capt $22K/month in China. They are up because there's a shortage?

 

[BobbyBiplane]

Mins dropping? With some of the quality I have seen of late, this is only the cause of more initial failures.

Folks with low time should really think about their readiness for air carrier ops. Do they really want a failure on their record given the latest Congressional rule/FAA requirements?

The new reality ... if you can't handle PIC qualification (for real, not in your wet dreams), don't apply.

Bob

 

[atpcliff]

We dropped our mins, and it wasn't because of training failures. It was because they couldn't get enough pilots applying with the previous minimums.

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

Cliff, I don't know where you get some of this info. For example:

American- 1890 on furlough
Alaska- 69 on furlough
Continental might have hired, though they still haven't recalled everyone but they DID merge with United-1437 on furlough.
Southwest- hiring from their pool, won't be a shortage of applicants there I assure you.
Hawaiian - ran a very small class last year. Not hiring.

On a side note, I have my app in at Atlas and I meet and exceed the mins. Haven't heard anything though.

 

[atpcliff]

Sorry that I was wrong on a few....also missed some US carriers hiring. \

Also, note that AA is planning on hiring this year. Why? Because they will run through their furlough list at a blazing speed....because there are so many open positions, that basically all the AA guys that wanted to are at other flying jobs now, and many of the AA guys will not return from their present positions.

I thought I read that ALL the CAL guys were told they were recalled, or would be soon? UAL will also run through their furlough list at blazing speed. I know two of them here, and neither one is going back.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

There isn't a shortage of pilots, there is a shortage of pilots willing to put up with the abuse that the airlines have become at all levels for what the pay and benefits are. Look at Comair, they were supposed to furlough a couple times and had to cancel the plans because they had so many (even captains) quitting, many simply to leave the industry all together.

 

[on autopilot]

Sorry that I was wrong on a few....also missed some US carriers hiring. \

Also, note that AA is planning on hiring this year. Why? Because they will run through their furlough list at a blazing speed....because there are so many open positions, that basically all the AA guys that wanted to are at other flying jobs now, and many of the AA guys will not return from their present positions.

I thought I read that ALL the CAL guys were told they were recalled, or would be soon? UAL will also run through their furlough list at blazing speed. I know two of them here, and neither one is going back.

Cliff who do you fly for? Also does anyone think we will see 250/50m by the summer if this keeps up?

 

[on autopilot]

Who are you with

I am part of a world wide E-V-I-L Organization with aspirations for world dominance. Our President is Dr. Evil.

 

[Lynxman]

Noway 250/50 this summer. Maybe 500/50 or 500/75, but it will be a long time before its that low again if ever.

 

[atpcliff]

US-based Intntl carrier:
Our mins were 4000TT / 1000 PICJet. Within only a few months they dropped to 2500TT / 1000 Turbine Total.

We did NOT drop the mins because there were an excess number of candidates!

And, we are going to need to hire even more due to the Flight/Duty/Rest rules coming before 1 Aug. The Regionals will be VERY hard hit to hire enough guys and have them trained by 1 Aug. I am 99% sure there will be LOTS of cancellations at the Regional level because of a lack of aircrews caused by the Regionals not hiring enough guys for the Rest/Duty/Flight changes with enough lead time to get the needed bodies online.

I also would not be surprised if some of the regionals will not be capable of getting enough bodies to fly the volume that they are tasked by their major code-share partner, at all. As a result, some of their flying will have to be shifted to the mainline carrier permanently, as it will be easier for them to get the pilots needed to cover the flying. It can only help!

cliff
AMS

 

[flyingfool]

500/100 at Eagle right now....

http://www.atpflightschool.com/images-new/airline_alliances/AE_Agreement.gif

 

[paid4training]

It's a regular Kit Darby luv festival here, get those ratings now!!!! Everyone is forgetting something tho, the price of oil just topped $100 a barrel and there's unrest in the middle east. That mean oil speculative will raise the price as high as it will go and no one in the WH will stop it("energy prices necessarily skyrocketing")!!!! Hold for a fun summer and fall if your a new hire!!!!!

 

[johnpeace]

Hold for a fun summer and fall if your a new hire!!!!!

I've been a newhire for 3 years and don't see it changing anytime soon.