MidEx

[CitationLover]

I think that there's a chance for this deal to fall through in the near future. If NWA and DAL get into serious merger discussions the MEH deal will become nothing more than a distraction. NWA/DAL will probably need to divest some combined assetts to appease the DOJ and an ownership stake in MEH with a first option to but the whole company will be just one more thing that the DOJ will need to consider. Why take the chance that a little deal could affect the outcome of a much more important, bigger deal? The penalty costs for NWA to walk away from the MEH deal are merely a spit in the ocean compared to the dollars involved with a NWA/DAL deal. I'll bet that TPG would be happy to just walk away from this whole thing right now if they could get paid back for their breakup fees and money out of pocket spent on this deal.

I'm not saying that this is going to fall apart but it wouldn't surprise me now that NWA/DAL may be happening. If this deal implodes I don't see any way that MEH could survive on it's own with oil at these levels and a slowing economy. I think MEH would be forced to sit down and discuss a friendly merger with AAI if they are even interested anymore given the prevailing economic conditions in the economy and industry. If I were a stockholder I would get out at $14 or whatever it is today, the risk just isn't worth it. If the deal falls this is $6-7/share stock.

this deal will be done before ANY DoJ review of NWA/DAL takes place. you act like AAI is immune from the current economic conditions also, quite the opposite, they NEEDED the merger as much as you claim MEH needs it. AAI has lost $400 million (about the amount of value they were obtaining MEH for) since the deal fell through. they are a target as much as MEH is.

MEH adds only one more overlapped route (MKE-ATL) to the NWA/DAL deal. i doubt our MCI routes where Delta matches with a combined leg out of CVG or SLC will matter or come up. it is simply a drop in the bucket wrt the entire deal and adds no complications to it. an AAI/MEH merger right now has more overlapping routes than a NWA/DAL/MEH merger with respect to current MEH routes.

 

[PCL_128]

they NEEDED the merger as much as you claim MEH needs it.

Actually, we're doing just fine, but thanks for the concern.

AAI has lost $400 million (about the amount of value they were obtaining MEH for) since the deal fell through.

We've lost market cap, but we're still producing consistent profits with another record year expected. We don't have any financial problems going forward as MEH does. Are we an acquisition target? Possibly, but I doubt it. I simply don't think that SWA is interested in acquisitions, and we would be the initiator of any deal with Alaska or Frontier, which I think are the other possibilities.

 

[fam62c]

this deal will be done before ANY DoJ review of NWA/DAL takes place. you act like AAI is immune from the current economic conditions also, quite the opposite, they NEEDED the merger as much as you claim MEH needs it. AAI has lost $400 million (about the amount of value they were obtaining MEH for) since the deal fell through. they are a target as much as MEH is.

First, nobody knows when this deal will get approved by the DOJ. Also this deal will NOT be done if TPG/NWA walks away and chooses to pay the penalty for doing so. It has nothing to do with the NWA/TPG/MEH DOJ review; it would have everything to do with the NWA/DAL DOJ review. I already mentioned that the NWA/DAL deal may be the catalyst for the breakup of the deal if the DAL/NWA folks feel an MEH ownership position could be a future impediment in their own deal. Also I never implied that AAI was immune from the current economic conditions. Quite the contrary, I said they they may be no longer interested in MEH because of the current economic conditions. The economy is killing all the airlines but MEH is more vulnerable than most because of it's small size, unique seating product that requires premium fares and it's deal with Skywest that has created overcapacity that has to be paid for even if it's not needed. Additionally, the merger would be good for MEH and AAI but MEH needs it much more. If MEH wre independent in this economy without a pending buyout they wouldn't survive nearly as long as AAI.....their fixed costs are simply too high without the seat-miles to spread them out sufficiently.

 

[CitationLover]

First, nobody knows when this deal will get approved by the DOJ. Also this deal will NOT be done if TPG/NWA walks away and chooses to pay the penalty for doing so. It has nothing to do with the NWA/TPG/MEH DOJ review; it would have everything to do with the NWA/DAL DOJ review. I already mentioned that the NWA/DAL deal may be the catalyst for the breakup of the deal if the DAL/NWA folks feel an MEH ownership position could be a future impediment in their own deal. Also I never implied that AAI was immune from the current economic conditions. Quite the contrary, I said they they may be no longer interested in MEH because of the current economic conditions. The economy is killing all the airlines but MEH is more vulnerable than most because of it's small size, unique seating product that requires premium fares and it's deal with Skywest that has created overcapacity that has to be paid for even if it's not needed. Additionally, the merger would be good for MEH and AAI but MEH needs it much more. If MEH wre independent in this economy without a pending buyout they wouldn't survive nearly as long as AAI.....their fixed costs are simply too high without the seat-miles to spread them out sufficiently.

the deal will be done by the end of this month. the NWA/DAL review is still WAY OFF. they are only studying the deal now. and their review will be A LOT longer than the MEH one. like i stated earlier, with only one additional overlapped route with MEH/NWA i doubt DAL would view the deal as an impediment. MKE would be treated simply like MEM and CVG and be reduced to a focus city in all likelihood. they would get rid of two birds with one stone.

 

[CitationLover]

Actually, we're doing just fine, but thanks for the concern. We've lost market cap, but we're still producing consistent profits with another record year expected. We don't have any financial problems going forward as MEH does. Are we an acquisition target? Possibly, but I doubt it. I simply don't think that SWA is interested in acquisitions, and we would be the initiator of any deal with Alaska or Frontier, which I think are the other possibilities.

your debt is way high and with higher oil your credit rating will fall. you have to keep adding airplanes to maintain the record profits and levels, but to do that you have to keep adding debt. necessity dictated air tran to buy a hub and they tried. building one (either in MKE or IND) takes a lot of captial (ie more debt) and resources.

good luck, we all need it.

 

[PCL_128]

Whatever you say, CL. I'm not worried.

 

[CitationLover]

Whatever you say, CL. I'm not worried.

you should be, you're supporting obama.

 

[Propsync]

Also this deal will NOT be done if TPG/NWA walks away and chooses to pay the penalty for doing so.

That's what I would do. It seemed fun in August, but the morning after effect is probably mounting. I won't be suprised if DAL/NWA is announced that MEH gets dumped.

 

[gt1900]

Lets face it.. No one is immune to anything in this economy. JL and BF once said that the best thing that could happen to AAI would be fuel hitting $80 a barrel (but that was when it was running around $70) because it would force a few out of business and force consolidation.. The said AAI could handle $80 fuel much better than most airlines. However, $80 seems cheap now, so its an all new ballgame. If this keeps up, Alaska might look into buying AAI (sorry AAI guys, ALA has a lot more money than AAI with a lot less dept) to keep from being bought by someone else. AAI might also look into F9 to save them from bankruptcy. Right now, I just don't see AAI offering much more than about $10 a share for MEH if the TPG deal falls through. At $100 a barrel everyone should be worried. I believe there are only 2 company's that are long term hedged to help fight off the high fuel costs, SWA and ALA. For the rest of us, it could be a bumpy ride, I don't care what airline you fly for...

 

[ultrarunner]

At $100 a barrel everyone should be worried....

When it hits a buck 50, folks will have hard-ons for 100 bucks a barrel. We haven't seen the top yet, hence the reason to get stuff consolidated now. You typically can't get everything you want during the liquidation of an outfit, as opposed to buying it all and chaffing what you don't want.

Stay tuned, and keep the faith that soon enough we'll have profitable airlines at 65% loads.