With Fee for departure contracts finding their demise in the industry the shared risk operation will be soon to replace those beneficial contracts that enabled Mesa and other regionals to be very financially successful. The future will demand more shared risk from regionals and that will require a large working capital. Currently there are only 2-3 regionals positioned with large cash reserves to operate a shared risk operation. For this reason I do not see Mesa as having a large force in the regional market as in years past. I doubt they will liquidate into CH.7 but will likely become a small niche market operator. What is good about the filing is is shows the importance of quality management and that market balance will erode even the cheapest product when the quality suffers so substantially.
Brick has an excellent point here. Back when fuel was cheap, and mama was footing the bill whether you flew 1 or 50 (well, 42/no bags with weight restrictions) it was easy to make money. Thow in 0 percent financing from Canada or Brazil for jets, and it's no wonder the weeds got out of control.
Throw in the ancillary costs of piss poor customer service, stranded pax and bag delivery and loss of good will, and you can see why some majors want out, and places like SWA don't want in. Even AirTran wants to keep arms length from their new deal.
The sad fact is that with oil at $70 and without an allowance or free fuel from mama, there is no way to make money with an RJ, and it's damn hard to make it with a 1900 or a Saab.
To make any money, the regional market should be what the commuter market always was: 402s and Twotters, and maybe the occasional BE99. You HAVE to have a niche where people have no other option...like Nantucket, Alaska or some scorpion infested hole in west Texas.
The "new market realities" simply don't support regionals at their current size. There is going to be a major re-wind, and when the new flight/duty regs hit, it's only going to accelerate, because hiring crews costs real money.
The has never been a reliable way to make money in the commuter biz, unless you're on the government teat.
Nu