Mesa Bankruptcy could be 7/20

[Avi8tor2000]

......And a long term Contract with Delta to provide lift. Comair does indeed have a contract for that lift as well, but does anybody know where that exists? SkyW Inc has long term Contracts set in place that will not be changed.

Trojan

Unless the airlines that hold those contracts go bankrupt which is more likely than not. And what if the government stops the handout parade and starts letting Ch. 7s happening?

My point is that nobody knows anything.

 

[USCtrojan]

Unless the airlines that hold those contracts go bankrupt which is more likely than not. And what if the government stops the handout parade and starts letting Ch. 7s happening?

My point is that nobody knows anything.

Couldn't agree more with your last statement. Now there is talk of re-regulation. Talk about the state of affairs in the Airline Industry? Likely scenarios may not be so likely in the coming months and vice versa. However, looking forward it appears as the Banking Industry is in the initial stages of recovery. With that, the Dollar will strengthen, as a result Oil prices will reduce. (And the fear and speculation associated with that will reduce as well) Once that happens, Airlines will hopefully see some relief. Will that come before a fallout? Who knows? Will the Gov't step in and save more Airlines? Who knows? I don't know what is gonna happen, but I can say with absolute certainty that those who feel bankruptcy is coming for specific Airlines, you can say the opposite as well (Bankruptcy will not happen). (Which isn't saying anything really). Let's stick with the facts. That's all.

Trojan

 

[siucavflight]

All the way from Barcelona today MESA SUCKS!!!

 

[SPDBRD747400]

Oh and Go! Also SUCKS!!!

http://www.dontflygo.com/

 

[atlcrashpad]

MESA.SUCKS.
MESA.SUCKS.
MESA.SUCKS.
MESA.SUCKS.

yeah.... bouyyyyyyyy....

MESA SUX.....

 

[Texx]

To be fair, I think most observers think this is less about Mesa's performance and more about Delta's desperation to get rid of any and all 50 seater.

My guess for the next neck on the chopping block?

Comair.

Speak for yourself.

"Chicago-based United also has issued a request for proposals to other regional carriers to cover flying in the event that Mesa's situation worsens, said a person familiar with its plans. United, the nation's second-largest carrier, used Mesa for about 18 percent of its regional operations during 2007, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings."

 

[Texx]

My point was merely that while everyone here is cheering Mesa's troubles, the fact is that every regional (even the vaunted Skywest) is facing rocky times ahead.

You are correct BUT which airlines have a CEO that can weather the storm? I think Mesa is missing from that list

 

[Texx]

Comair is in an excellent position for growth. Along with Compass and Mesaba.

Well lets see. How many 50 seat airframes have OR is DAL pulliing off line? How many 900s are you adding?

More 50s leaving than 900s coming on means less flying even if you were to pickup the handful of DCI Freedom airframes.

 

[buxflyr]

Rumor has it US Airways has a stake in the Mesa 900's. If Mesa loses this court battle, guess who's going out west...

 

[Soverytired]

Which could get a better contract if filed for BK. Which could mean anything. Speculation, speculation, speculation, coulda shoulda woulda. Let's try and stay on course here. What happens if we enter WWIII? What if N. Korea and Iran attack? What if the sky falls and we have no more sun? See where I'm going here?

Trojan

I do. However, there are differences between being afraid of unforeseen possibilities, and basing behavior based on very real trends.

Oil is up. Way up. I think it's fair to say that this is a trend that will only accelerate in our lifetimes. It's pretty obvious the majors don't know what to do, not even Southwest. The fundamental economics of the airline business are changing, and you're going to see big changes in the next decade.

Bankruptcies are likely, and while I will certainly agree that Skywest has some excellent long term contracts, they will not come out unscathed when United and if Delta go bankrupt. Skywests biggest problem is that it isn't an airline, it's a "lift provider."

If no one needs the lift, they're out of business, or severely curtailed. CRJ's don't have good track runs of being "start up airlines", even when well funded.

I like Skywest. I wish I would have gone there 6 years ago. But I don't think I'd base my long term airline career on their (or any lift providers) enduring prospects.

 

[Soverytired]

Couldn't agree more with your last statement. Now there is talk of re-regulation. Talk about the state of affairs in the Airline Industry?

Trojan

I wonder how "re-regulation" would affect lift providers?

Shouldn't a "re-regulated" industry favor actual airlines, not contracted lift? After all, the closest thing to government contracted lift is EAS, and that's a disaster for the taxpayer and the flying public.

Personally, I don't see it happening. But if it does, I think regional "airlines" should be careful what they wish for.

 

[USCtrojan]

I do. However, there are differences between being afraid of unforeseen possibilities, and basing behavior based on very real trends.

Oil is up. Way up. I think it's fair to say that this is a trend that will only accelerate in our lifetimes. It's pretty obvious the majors don't know what to do, not even Southwest. The fundamental economics of the airline business are changing, and you're going to see big changes in the next decade.

Bankruptcies are likely, and while I will certainly agree that Skywest has some excellent long term contracts, they will not come out unscathed when United and if Delta go bankrupt. Skywests biggest problem is that it isn't an airline, it's a "lift provider."

If no one needs the lift, they're out of business, or severely curtailed. CRJ's don't have good track runs of being "start up airlines", even when well funded.

I like Skywest. I wish I would have gone there 6 years ago. But I don't think I'd base my long term airline career on their (or any lift providers) enduring prospects.

When United goes Bankrupt? That's a hell of a forecast. It's a good possibility, but then again so is anything in this environment. If you base Oil right now going on forever, then I think you don't believe in a cyclical market. The dollar is very weak on a world scale and that will change--pretty soon. I'm not saying we'll see a monumental dip in oil, but it will sure help get rid of speculators and fear mongers. Which will only help. Assuming more consolidation, less capacity = higher yields. And the big ??? is the US Gov't and what they will do to mix things up.

Trojan

 

[USCtrojan]

I wonder how "re-regulation" would affect lift providers?

Shouldn't a "re-regulated" industry favor actual airlines, not contracted lift? After all, the closest thing to government contracted lift is EAS, and that's a disaster for the taxpayer and the flying public.

Personally, I don't see it happening. But if it does, I think regional "airlines" should be careful what they wish for.

Lift providers don't stand to lose assuming they have solid contracts, good service and good value (cost competitive). There are a lot of markets that need lift providers, I won't give you examples other than to look at ASA's route structure. The ebb and flow of the Airline Industry will not extinct them. The Airline Industry may need a little help and that might be in the form of Consolidation or $$$$. Either way you look at it, we're either at the bottom of our Economy and heading up or about to hit rock bottom and start heading up. It's gonna depend on the Banking Industry and the recovering US Dollar. Right now the US market is VERY CHEAP vs. Europe. Hopefully a lot of that money will flood back into the US. When it does our Economy will return along with all those much desired passengers.

Trojan

 

[Soverytired]

Yes and no. While I'm not conversant on the route structure of ASA, I suspect a fair (just fair, not majority) of it is to smaller cities using 50-70 seat RJ's.

With oil prices the way they are, airlines are looking to reduce frequency or eliminate entirely to smaller cities. A significant amount of traffic from smaller cities has traditionally been sold at a loss anyway, and the revenue has been made up when they get to the hub.

That sort of thinking will probably go away if oil continues to rise. At some point, a city will either get one/two flights a day from a large jet, or just be cut out of the route structure entirely.

Remember, in the days of "regulation", there hundreds of small cities that never had air service. Now that gas is expensive, and will continue to go up over the long haul, airlines will probably shrink to service their core markets.

Who knows though? I hope it's just another cycle. You're right about Europe. Ryanair makes huge profits . . . . with a fleet of 737's though, not contracted lift feeding the hubs though.

 

[rchcfi]

Fresh off the wire: (www.aviationtoday.com)

Chapter 11 May Not Work This Time
Chapter 11 may not be an option during this economic crisis, according to analysts speaking to Business Week, who think the capital to fund restructuring and exit bankruptcy will not be there since airlines are such a poor investment. This coupled with creditors, seeing the writing on the wall, forcing the sale of assets, does not bode well for Mesa which said that if Delta’s contract with Freedom is actually cancelled it could force a Chapter 11 filing by mid-July. Related Story The industry has already seen numerous carriers eliminated such as Aloha which went directly to Chapter 7 recently.


Mesa was also notified on May 22 that it does not comply with NASDAQ filing requirements for continued listing and could be "de-listed" from The NASDAQ Global Select Market. It has requested a hearing before a NASDAQ Listing Qualifications Panel to review the Staff Determination. The Notice arises as a result of Mesa's failure to timely file its Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. On May 13, 2008, Mesa filed a notice with the Securities and Exchange Commission indicating that it was delaying the filing of its Form 10-Q until on or about May 20, 2008 and now intends to file the 10-Q on or about June 2, prior to its hearing.