Mesa Bankruptcy could be 7/20

[Erlanger]

My point was merely that while everyone here is cheering Mesa's troubles, the fact is that every regional (even the vaunted Skywest) is facing rocky times ahead.

I'll take no pleasure from the fact that thousands of pilots will probably lose their jobs in the next year . . .jobs that won't be coming back, ever.

Good post!

 

[XPOO]

My point was merely that while everyone here is cheering Mesa's troubles, the fact is that every regional (even the vaunted Skywest) is facing rocky times ahead.

I'll take no pleasure from the fact that thousands of pilots will probably lose their jobs in the next year . . .jobs that won't be coming back, ever.

SkyWest has rocky times ahead? Oh, please do tell.

 

[Medeco]

Nobody is immune during this.

I think things can change just as fast for the better if we have a sudden drop in oil, but that isnt likely.

These kind of doom and gloom statements were being made by all of us after the 911 fall out, yet we mangaged to see a brief upswing in our industry.

The belts are going to be tightened by all, but eventually things will recover after we adapt to the new (financial)climate our industry and entire country are facing.

Medeco

 

[Lilah]

SkyWest has rocky times ahead? Oh, please do tell.

Well, based on the stock progress of the last six months, it may not be as rosey as some predict.

I can imagine a pilot and spouse getting together years ago and celebrating over a bottle of wine...YAAHHOOO! I just got hired by Pan Am/Eastern/TWA/Braniff (take your pick), "We're set for life!"

I have to agree with Medeco, things change, how would SkyWest be without United (which is not beyond the realm of realistic possibilites).

Cheers!

Lilah

 

[No.W.]

SkyWest has rocky times ahead? Oh, please do tell.

I really hope you understand that we ARE NOT immune...and we WILL be affected by this downturn.

No airline will get through unscathed.

 

[XPOO]

I really hope you understand that we ARE NOT immune...and we WILL be affected by this downturn.

No airline will get through unscathed.

Fair enough, no one is immune. But the SkyWest, Inc. outlook is much rosier than the rest of the regionals out there.

 

[Medeco]

Yes, Skywest Inc. has good cash on hand to ride out the storm, thats about it.

Medeco

 

[USCtrojan]

Yes, Skywest Inc. has good cash on hand to ride out the storm, thats about it.

Medeco

......And a long term Contract with Delta to provide lift. Comair does indeed have a contract for that lift as well, but does anybody know where that exists? SkyW Inc has long term Contracts set in place that will not be changed.

Trojan

 

[dooork]

......And a long term Contract with Delta to provide lift. Comair does indeed have a contract for that lift as well, but does anybody know where that exists? SkyW Inc has long term Contracts set in place that will not be changed.

Trojan

Which could get changed if UAL or DAL file BK.

 

[USCtrojan]

Which could get changed if UAL or DAL file BK.

Which could get a better contract if filed for BK. Which could mean anything. Speculation, speculation, speculation, coulda shoulda woulda. Let's try and stay on course here. What happens if we enter WWIII? What if N. Korea and Iran attack? What if the sky falls and we have no more sun? See where I'm going here?

Trojan

 

[Avi8tor2000]

......And a long term Contract with Delta to provide lift. Comair does indeed have a contract for that lift as well, but does anybody know where that exists? SkyW Inc has long term Contracts set in place that will not be changed.

Trojan

Unless the airlines that hold those contracts go bankrupt which is more likely than not. And what if the government stops the handout parade and starts letting Ch. 7s happening?

My point is that nobody knows anything.

 

[USCtrojan]

Unless the airlines that hold those contracts go bankrupt which is more likely than not. And what if the government stops the handout parade and starts letting Ch. 7s happening?

My point is that nobody knows anything.

Couldn't agree more with your last statement. Now there is talk of re-regulation. Talk about the state of affairs in the Airline Industry? Likely scenarios may not be so likely in the coming months and vice versa. However, looking forward it appears as the Banking Industry is in the initial stages of recovery. With that, the Dollar will strengthen, as a result Oil prices will reduce. (And the fear and speculation associated with that will reduce as well) Once that happens, Airlines will hopefully see some relief. Will that come before a fallout? Who knows? Will the Gov't step in and save more Airlines? Who knows? I don't know what is gonna happen, but I can say with absolute certainty that those who feel bankruptcy is coming for specific Airlines, you can say the opposite as well (Bankruptcy will not happen). (Which isn't saying anything really). Let's stick with the facts. That's all.

Trojan

 

[siucavflight]

All the way from Barcelona today MESA SUCKS!!!

 

[SPDBRD747400]

Oh and Go! Also SUCKS!!!

http://www.dontflygo.com/

 

[atlcrashpad]

MESA.SUCKS.
MESA.SUCKS.
MESA.SUCKS.
MESA.SUCKS.

yeah.... bouyyyyyyyy....

MESA SUX.....

 

[Texx]

To be fair, I think most observers think this is less about Mesa's performance and more about Delta's desperation to get rid of any and all 50 seater.

My guess for the next neck on the chopping block?

Comair.

Speak for yourself.

"Chicago-based United also has issued a request for proposals to other regional carriers to cover flying in the event that Mesa's situation worsens, said a person familiar with its plans. United, the nation's second-largest carrier, used Mesa for about 18 percent of its regional operations during 2007, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings."

 

[Texx]

My point was merely that while everyone here is cheering Mesa's troubles, the fact is that every regional (even the vaunted Skywest) is facing rocky times ahead.

You are correct BUT which airlines have a CEO that can weather the storm? I think Mesa is missing from that list

 

[Texx]

Comair is in an excellent position for growth. Along with Compass and Mesaba.

Well lets see. How many 50 seat airframes have OR is DAL pulliing off line? How many 900s are you adding?

More 50s leaving than 900s coming on means less flying even if you were to pickup the handful of DCI Freedom airframes.

 

[buxflyr]

Rumor has it US Airways has a stake in the Mesa 900's. If Mesa loses this court battle, guess who's going out west...

 

[Soverytired]

Which could get a better contract if filed for BK. Which could mean anything. Speculation, speculation, speculation, coulda shoulda woulda. Let's try and stay on course here. What happens if we enter WWIII? What if N. Korea and Iran attack? What if the sky falls and we have no more sun? See where I'm going here?

Trojan

I do. However, there are differences between being afraid of unforeseen possibilities, and basing behavior based on very real trends.

Oil is up. Way up. I think it's fair to say that this is a trend that will only accelerate in our lifetimes. It's pretty obvious the majors don't know what to do, not even Southwest. The fundamental economics of the airline business are changing, and you're going to see big changes in the next decade.

Bankruptcies are likely, and while I will certainly agree that Skywest has some excellent long term contracts, they will not come out unscathed when United and if Delta go bankrupt. Skywests biggest problem is that it isn't an airline, it's a "lift provider."

If no one needs the lift, they're out of business, or severely curtailed. CRJ's don't have good track runs of being "start up airlines", even when well funded.

I like Skywest. I wish I would have gone there 6 years ago. But I don't think I'd base my long term airline career on their (or any lift providers) enduring prospects.