Mesa and the crystal ball

[MONKEY]

Here is my Mesa prediction.

Mesa has been losing money each quarter for about a year.

Mesa has about $180 million dollars on hand. $90 million of that is restricted and will be paid to Hawaiian Airlines after Mesa’s appeal fails. Once the Aloha lawsuit goes through they will have no more cash.

Without cash on hand they will no longer be able to finance aircraft.

Bankruptcy will not help them. If they try to negotiate lower lease rates, stronger regionals such as SkyWest and Chataqua will bid on the assets that they want. These stronger airlines will take all the larger aircraft leaving Mesa with the smaller 50 seat aircraft.

Because they will lose so much flying they will be able to go in a plunder the pilot contracts knowing that many of the pilots will quit, but with the reduced flying they will not need as many pilots. Pilots will vote to strike, but they will be unable to strike quick enough to stop the transfer of aircraft to the China operation.

Mesa will lose the US Airways contract do to the loss of aircraft and crews. They will be reduced to their Chinese operation.

Now it’s your turn for Mesa predictions. What do you think the future holds for them?

 

[CoATP]

They will merge with Delta and buy Northwest. Instead of widebodies from AMS to Mombai they will use CRJ's with stops in Bagdhad and Tehran.

 

[viper548]

I think you're dead on except I think they'll lose their United contract first. UAL had to contract Expressjet to fill in for mesa this month. SkyWest is adding 1 more aircraft for UAL this month too (it was a spare).

 

[CopilotDoug]

What is going on with the China operation? I heard JO wants to send US Captains over their to train the Chinese pilots...then bring the Chinese pilots over here to build their experience. Please don't tell me that ANY US captains are heading to China...

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Skywest plan 4A1 option 2 or 5; Negotiate with UAL to transfer UEX flying to Skywest, Freedom DAL flying to ASA. Keep MESA as seperate ticket for Airways flying until it can be split between SKYW and ASA.
GO! to be shutdown as part of agreement with Aloha and Hawaiian to settle lawsuits. Many ducks to line up; negotiations with UAL, DAL, US Airways, Aloha and Hawaiian, creditors, lessors. With their market cap less than $75 million almost time to pull the trigger. Hostal style, show up at the NYSE with the checkbook and badda bing, badda boom! Jonny O is out of a job. Where do you think Ron Reber has been since he stepped down as CEO? Working on his MBA?

 

[eaglefly]

Monkey, if their finances get to the level you describe (certainly possible), most of it will be moot. They won't be able to pay their employees, purchase parts, supplies or fuel and will cease operations.

Since mergers are on the table, many feeders of the potential partners will have overlap and excess capacity and some won't get a seat when the music stops. Mesa is entwined with just about all the potential partners and with their liabilities, I too think (and hope) their toast soon.

It would seem (and we can all hope) Mesa is one of the likely candidates to end up a bad memory in the history of the U.S. airline industry.

Sadly, J.O. has already made himself a multimillionair (which was his goal - self interest) many times over. My guess is they're looting the companys finances as we speak.

 

[dooork]

Monkey, if their finances get to the level you describe (certainly possible), most of it will be moot. They won't be able to pay their employees, purchase parts, supplies or fuel and will cease operations.

Since mergers are on the table, many feeders of the potential partners will have overlap and excess capacity and some won't get a seat when the music stops. Mesa is entwined with just about all the potential partners and with their liabilities, I too think (and hope) their toast soon.

It would seem (and we can all hope) Mesa is one of the likely candidates to end up a bad memory in the history of the U.S. airline industry.

Sadly, J.O. has already made himself a multimillionair (which was his goal - self interest) many times over. My guess is they're looting the companys finances as we speak.

Ahh yes all the fond memorys of eagle...

 

[eaglefly]

Ahh yes all the fond memorys of eagle...

Eagle is night and day from Mesa.

Give your crooked pal J.O. my regards the next time your under his desk............in between head bobs, of course.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

J.O. is going DeLorean on us, he is gonna finance his loosing money operation with meth. The title should be:
mesa and the crystal meth ball!
http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=109779

 

[G2T]

time to pull the trigger. Hostal style

You're going to make them sleep in bunk beds and use a community bathroom somewhere in Europe?

 

[Mesa Beer]

J.O. is going DeLorean on us, he is gonna finance his loosing money operation with meth. The title should be:
mesa and the crystal meth ball!
http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=109779

Makes more sense now why the ticket prices have been so cheap doesn't it?

 

[MONKEY]

We should start a pool

Each person picks the day that Mesa will lose their United contract. They then find the difference from what they picked and the actual date. We do the same thing with the Delta and US Airways contracts and add them all up. The one who is the closest wins. Wait, what am I talking about. When Mesa folds we all win.

 

[dvmthwsvan]

Rumor around Comair is that we have been sold to a private company. With this they have also purchased Mesa's ORD United flying and planes. 30 new planes is the number going around. With that comes the Mesa pilots with a DOH integtation but able to hold their seats they are currently in. Take that for what its woth. There is some announcement coming on Tuesday from the Pres. could be it.

Dave

 

[CFI2766]

Rumor around Comair is that we have been sold to a private company. With this they have also purchased Mesa's ORD United flying and planes. 30 new planes is the number going around. With that comes the Mesa pilots with a DOH integtation but able to hold their seats they are currently in. Take that for what its woth. There is some announcement coming on Tuesday from the Pres. could be it.

Dave

Ummmm, okay. How would they take only the ORD crews? I could see the ORD flying, and maybe the planes, but how could they take only a part of a seniority list? Is this possible?

 

[JECKEL]

I have heard that MESA is more than 90 days delinquent in paying Flight Safety for simulator time.

Everyday now, MESA must pay Flight Safety upfront for use of that day's sims. There have been days when MESA has not been able to pay.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Ummmm, okay. How would they take only the ORD crews? I could see the ORD flying, and maybe the planes, but how could they take only a part of a seniority list? Is this possible?

....it has been done before and a lot depends on the agreement and the Mesa fragmentation language....

.....just one example is the PanAm deal with Delta.....Some of the PanAm pilots came with the routes.....which resulted in another ALPA lawsuit (Duke/Spellacy)....

 

[islandhopper]

Ummmm, okay. How would they take only the ORD crews? I could see the ORD flying, and maybe the planes, but how could they take only a part of a seniority list? Is this possible?

Something like seniority merger, only in this case it would be a fragmentation clause.. I am not sure if Mesa has one. It would depend on the language and what #'-ages trigger it. ORD is less than 20 airplanes for Mesa isn't it? Thats less than 10% so if the fragmentation language was 10% the swap would probably not trigger it Mesa would either furlough pilots or be a little closer to a proper staffing formula.