Merger Buzz is heating up

[General Lee]

Folks, no need to bash this guys predictions. With oil at $91.86 a barel and heading toward $100 dollars, consolidation IS coming. The airlines are relatively healthy. Everyone take a moment and study every airline and their third quarter numbers. The legacies all have cash and know they have to control pricing in this global economy. Like every other industry (oil,banking,phone,insurance) the big boys start buying the small guy to control pricing and keep their profits. Now that the airlines have mostly fixed their books, they will now begin the consolidation period. It is a natural progression that is sure to come! Now my predictions, and just a prediction:

1.Northwest and Delta......looks like they may be talking.

2. Jetblue, Spirit, and Frontier to become the new Virgin America...linked with Virgin, route structure and common fleet, would make this a natural.

3. Continental and Alaska....With Continental's pacific routes and not much west coast and common fleet, this would be a natural fit.

4. US Airways and America West....they continue to try to make it work.

5. United and AirTran Airways.....If US Airways is too much because of antitrust issues, AirTran may fit.(Smaller AirTran today resembles US Airways in route structure in 2000 when United attempted to buy US Airways then (minus Philly and Pit)....United wants a southern hub and a East Coast presence. Orlando could be a perfect place to start routes to the carribean, central and south America. They bought these routes from Pan Am and closed them in Miami because of competition with American. Could find Orlando an alternative to Miami.

6. American will strengthen its relationship with British Airways.

7. Southwest...will grow internationally with ATA, World, and North American. May even be an open door in the future to wide bodies and international flights by purchasing these three.

8. Finally, there will always be new entrants, but many will fail in the global economy and open skies.

Just my predictions! What are some of your predictions?

One more thing, with the government all over the airlines about delays and wanting the airlines to cut back on some flights, I doubt they will stop many of these potential mergers. Mergers tend to lead to capacity cuts, so the government would not get in the way.

Mixing two airlines together without looking at what could happen to hubs (closures) and loss of service to small communities, will not help that cause. There has to be a good reason to merge two companies (like USAir and AWA---USAir was going to liquidate otherwise, and there was very little overlap and hardly any loss of service). If you can find two airlines that can merge without hurting local politicians' feelings, it could happen. Good Ole Rep, Jim Oberstar (my hero) is still the Chairman of the Aviation sub comittee, and he is against mergers that would be bad for competition and small communities. If it passes that test, then maybe.

If it does happen, this is what I predict:
1. DL/NW/Alaska
2. UA/CAL
3. USAir/Skybus
4. Jetblue/Frontier/Spirit
5. Southwest/Lubbock Air Ambulence


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

The Magic 8-ball needs to work in management.

I asked it twice if DL and NWA will merge... Responses were, respectively:

"Ask yourself."

and

"Ask again later."

 

[Mud Eagle]

5. Southwest/Lubbock Air Ambulence

General, I don't agree with your incessant hounding of SWA guys about being a small Texas carrier...

...but that made me laugh.

 

[Ex737Driver]

If it does happen, this is what I predict:
1. DL/NW/Alaska
2. UA/CAL
3. USAir/Skybus
4. Jetblue/Frontier/Spirit
5. Southwest/Lubbock Air Ambulence

I think you'll see ALK with AMR.

 

[NEDude]

That's my predictions. And yes, I did stay at Holiday Inn last night.

Well that is your problem right there - you should have stayed at a Holiday Inn EXPRESS. Perhaps then you could have had good predictions.

 

[Fly4hire]

My prediction:

Whatever combinations that will make the most money for the hedge funds who are currently investing in various carriers (and underwrote the barely failed U/DAL merger), WS firms that will represent the deals, and other institutional investors.

Whatever combination is cobbed together will be sold to the public, media, and congress as the most natural combination since tomato soup and a grilled cheese sandwich.

Actual functioning airlines, employees, and air service will be a distant afterthought.

 

[Tanker Clown]

yawn...

you two guys are peas in a pod...

Lighten up sweatheart. Don't you have some PME to do? Or, at least should you be volunteering to work on your squadron Christmas party. I'm sure you want that OPR in tip top shape. Being an EP will only carry you so far.

 

[michael707767]

Whatever combinations that will make the most money for the hedge funds who are currently investing in various carriers (and underwrote the barely failed U/DAL merger), WS firms that will represent the deals, and other institutional investors.

Whatever combination is cobbed together will be sold to the public, media, and congress as the most natural combination since tomato soup and a grilled cheese sandwich.

Actual functioning airlines, employees, and air service will be a distant afterthought.

Finally, someone who completely understands airline mergers.

 

[RedDogC130]

If it does happen, this is what I predict:
1. DL/NW/Alaska
2. UA/CAL
3. USAir/Skybus
4. Jetblue/Frontier/Spirit
5. Southwest/Lubbock Air Ambulence


Bye Bye--General Lee

This just proves General Lee is an idiot. Learn how to spell.


Mabye he is just pissed that he was raised in LBB and can't go home anymore because Delta does not go there. Just move your trailer to ATL.

 

[C-17 Driver]

Lighten up sweatheart. Don't you have some PME to do? Or, at least should you be volunteering to work on your squadron Christmas party. I'm sure you want that OPR in tip top shape. Being an EP will only carry you so far.

no time...starting indoc on Monday..

who said anything about me still being on active duty?

Have a nice line number....way below me.