Mercy 98

[lowecur]

Just found out there are five completed UAIR 170's sitting in Brazil waiting for certification on 2/20. I think they will have a few more by the end of the month, and begin 4 per month priority delivery schedule thereafter. Have you heard any different? Is the company having trouble attracting F/O's for MAA?

I've heard the Shuttle if it's sold will go to Jetblue. UAIR doesn't look favorably toward AMR with their vast network and renewed vitality. A non-compete deal may be cut with Jetblue on certain valuable UAIR routes for the next 3 or 4 years if that happens. Personally, I believe UAIR needs the money to reach their covenants by June and will accept. Since JO & Mesa just received $100M from Preferred sale, they will probably buy the combined new Express if they can ever get Piedmont pilots to agree.

If all that happens and with the reduced Bonds payments at PIT, this should give UAIR some viability toward making it. I hear they also plan to simplify fares shortly, and try to shorten turnarounds.

Sounds like a plan. Good Luck!

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

To have an hourly Shuttle you need to have about 9-10 aircraft flying back and forth from LGA to BOS and DCA---with a standby aircraft waiting for over flow passengers. Where do you think Jetblue will pull off current A320s for their NEW Shuttle? Maybe in the future, but I doubt they will buy this one. I bet AA will go for it and put their EMBs on something else.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[IB6 UB9]

General...I will bet you my JB touque to your DAL pajamas that if it comes to it we can come up with the equipment. We pulled out of ATL to free up an a/c...didn't we?

 

[lowecur]

general

Lowecur,

To have an hourly Shuttle you need to have about 9-10 aircraft flying back and forth from LGA to BOS and DCA---with a standby aircraft waiting for over flow passengers. Where do you think Jetblue will pull off current A320s for their NEW Shuttle? Maybe in the future, but I doubt they will buy this one.

15 new A-320's this year should cover it. What makes you think he will use all the gates and slots for the shuttle? B6 may decide to run the shuttle every 90 minutes with 156 seats compared to the smaller 319's of UAIR. Besides the new BOS and LGA routes will be limited. They are also very flexible with frequency adjustment into JFK and LGB to compensate.

Siegel has said recently they may not have to sell some assets. I don't buy that. He is too close to not meeting covenants to take that chance. The $100M from Mesa will not be enough to make David Bronner feel comfortable enough to stay on board. Both the shuttle and express will have to be sold.

 

[General Lee]

Lowecur,

I actually flew the Delta Shuttle as an engineer (727FE) for 4 months (before transferring to ATL) and I saw how the operation works. The beauty of it is that business people get out of the cab and run up and pay the same amount (around $420 roundtrip for both Delta and USAir) for the convienence of hopping a plane and getting to the other destination. Most of the passengers are concerned with time---and they like just showing up and being guarunteed a flight (hence a standby aircraft waiting if the other is full). That is what makes the Shuttle work. People use it for convienence. Every 90 minutes might cost some of those people some business---but if you think it should be run that way---go ahead--tell Neeleman. You may be right that they may want one in the future with their EMB-190s---but USAir's Shuttle may be gone by then---sold to AA.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[dlredline]

...I've heard the Shuttle if it's sold will go to Jetblue. UAIR doesn't look favorably toward AMR with their vast network and renewed vitality. A non-compete deal may be cut with Jetblue on certain valuable UAIR routes for the next 3 or 4 years if that happens...

Lowecur,

Not doubting you, dude ('cause I'd love to see it happen), but I'm kinda curious where you heard this "rumor", and it's source.

Thanks,

Red

 

[lowecur]

Re: Re: Mercy 98

Lowecur,

Not doubting you, dude ('cause I'd love to see it happen), but I'm kinda curious where you heard this "rumor", and it's source.

Thanks,

Red

I got into a discussion with an unnamed gal that works for an Investment Banking firm on a recent flight from PBI to JFK. This was just her opinion, but it made sense.

 

[G4G5]

I can see the Shuttle gates and slots going to B6 but I have my doubts as to weather Neeleman would ever operate them as a Shuttle. IMHO he would use the assets to continue his FL push. Their is nothing written that their has to be two shuttles, the value is in the gates and slots at the big three airports.

Neeleman doesn't need the aircraft or the employees so, a turn key Shuttle is not somehting that interests him. Changing his business philosophy, to now cater to the business traveler doesn't make much sence either. I was under the impression that Seigel wants to keep the Busses.

AA could eaisly start up a Shuttle to fill the voild, they already have one that Eagle operates.

The thing is, it makes little sence for B6 to get involved with LGA. The delays can kill you. The aircraft utilization will go way down and his costs will go way up. To start up FL flights out of LGA will only antagonize the Legacy carriers. Unlike JFK, LGA has plenty of existing LCC's, they would surly fight for their turf.

I am still of the belief that B6 is only in the market to drive up the price for AA. This is their chance to get even for LGB. When you stop and think about it, who other then AA would even be interested in the Shuttle. Delta has one and UAL can't get involved while in CH11. That would leave NWA or CAL as the only two carriers left. IMHO, while both could use the Shuttle, it doen't fit into their expansion plans. The ramifications of getting into a bidding war with AA and acutually getting stuck over paying for the Shuttle, could eaisly place the winner into ch11.

If they were to use all 15 A320's on the Shuttle, B6 would basicly have zero expansion for next year. IMHO those aircraft can be better used on routes other then the Shuttle.

 

[dlredline]

Re: Re: Re: Mercy 98

I got into a discussion with an unnamed gal that works for an Investment Banking firm on a recent flight from PBI to JFK. This was just her opinion, but it made sense.

Thanks.