Mainline airline pilot hiring to increase

[livin'thesim]

What is unknown is the future size of the regional fleets. It is possible that if substantial shifts in the economy occur in tandem with persistently high fuel prices, it is conceivable that regional flying will decrease overall, or be consolidated into fewer carriers, meaning that the so-called shortage will be nothing more than what I would call "brisk hiring".

If regional flying stays relatively similar, the demand at the regional level, ESPECIALLY in light of the huge flight/duty change could pose problems.

Do the math on a typical regional pilot's number of legs and duty start time, and you can see that regional flying may become non-viable in some cases.

Raises will be required at regionals just to compensate for the reduced number of flight hours that pilots will be able to complete. Add in the brisk hiring at the majors and regionals could have turnover rates too high to justify.

The 1500 hour rule is an additional complication for the regionals while we wait for the training pipeline to spool up again.

 

[labbats]

I think the internet created this pilot vacuum. The knowledge of what awaits an aspiring pilot is enough to turn most away. Knowledge is power and it's finally coming home to roost.

Bear in mind that I'm in agreement with everyone else when it comes to the majors. Maybe in 15-20 years there will be a shortage, but who knows what technology will be around then. For all we know all cargo flying could be done with UAVs. Then all the cargo pilots are vying for a job at the majors. It never ends.

 

[flyboyike]

Mainline hiring has been "increasing" since before my first solo. The only thing that HAS increased is retirement age, 'cause that's just and fair.

 

[pilotyip]

The competitive mins will change, and the majors will have to compete for the best applicants, but there won't be an actual shortage of applicants meeting the min requirements.

If you define "shortage" as literally no one qualified to apply to a major, then yes you are correct that will never happen.

Most rational people define "shortage" as the landscape of pilot recruitment shifting in favor of the applicant. That, without question, is going to happen. The majors already know this, and are preparing for it.

Very well put, the increase in hiring will shift the process to more of a sellers markets than the buyer market we have today. I saw guys get hired a UAL, NWA without college degrees back in the late 90's.

 

[Lear70]

You guys let me know how that works out for you... *snicker*

 

[pilotyip]

You guys let me know how that works out for you... *snicker*

It is going work just fine for them

 

[cldsfr79]

There are over 20,000 regional pilots, plus many cargo, military and corporate who are ready to move on. If AA's scope reaches 88 seats and UCAL doesn't hold the line where it's at then expect less jobs on the major level. When any Career airline opens its doors expect 10,000+ qualified resumes. I don't expect to see any noticeable movement till 2017 assuming age 67 isn't passed by then.

Since the optimism got sucked out of me once I became a "professional pilot", I'm going to have to agree with this statement.

I remember when NWA did a tad of hiring in 2007? They got over 5000 resumes within a couple days for only couple hundred positions.

The airlines seem to keep coping with attrition just fine. Even if they are forced to hire, it's probably going to be a trickle and things will still be very competitive over the next decade; If you are not a minority, female, or have a "buddy" at the airline, it may be very difficult to get in.

(I heard of this guy at my place of business that marked the "african american" bock even though he was "white". He got called in for an interview, they saw that he really wasn't "african american" and asked him to leave!) Ok, so he lied, but it proved a point.

 

[igneousy2]

If you define "shortage" as literally no one qualified to apply to a major, then yes you are correct that will never happen.

Most rational people define "shortage" as the landscape of pilot recruitment shifting in favor of the applicant. That, without question, is going to happen. The majors already know this, and are preparing for it.

No I disagree with you...I think most media looking for a catchy headline, Kit Darby, and airline recuiters think a shifting in favor of applicants is a "shortage." I think most rational people would say that the situation would be "less of a surplus" We are a long way from having a SHORTAGE of pilot applicants at the major airline level.

You don't need a high school diploma to work at just about any McDonalds. If for years at a certain McDonalds the economy in an area was so bad that this McDonalds started requiring all applicants to have a 4 year college degree. Then things started picking up in the economy and this McDonalds owner had to drop the requirement to an Associates Degree. Would most rational people believe the owner when they said that "there is a shortage of McDonalds applicants" because there was a shifting of requirements in favor of the McDonalds Applicants? Not likely.

I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.

We (as all pilots) need to be careful how we word this because this will come back to bite us. If the public perception is that there is a SHORTAGE of pilots then that plays into the hands of the airlines because that gives them very strong arguments in congress for the removal of 65, MMPL, and relaxed cabotage rules.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

No I disagree with you...I think most media looking for a catchy headline, Kit Darby, and airline recuiters think a shifting in favor of applicants is a "shortage." I think most rational people would say that the situation would be "less of a surplus" We are a long way from having a SHORTAGE of pilot applicants at the major airline level.

You don't need a high school diploma to work at just about any McDonalds. If for years at a certain McDonalds the economy in an area was so bad that this McDonalds started requiring all applicants to have a 4 year college degree. Then things started picking up in the economy and this McDonalds owner had to drop the requirement to an Associates Degree. Would most rational people believe the owner when they said that "there is a shortage of McDonalds applicants" because there was a shifting of requirements in favor of the McDonalds Applicants? Not likely.

I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.

We (as all pilots) need to be careful how we word this because this will come back to bite us. If the public perception is that there is a SHORTAGE of pilots then that plays into the hands of the airlines because that gives them very strong arguments in congress for the removal of 65, MMPL, and relaxed cabotage rules.

Given the number of pilots coming into aviation compared to the number leaving over the next 20 years, there will either be a shortage or a major shift in how many pilots are needed in the flight deck.

That's the long view though. How dare I think past 6 months from now!

 

[Lear70]

I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.

We (as all pilots) need to be careful how we word this because this will come back to bite us. If the public perception is that there is a SHORTAGE of pilots then that plays into the hands of the airlines because that gives them very strong arguments in congress for the removal of 65, MMPL, and relaxed cabotage rules.

Perfectly-worded, and well-said.

Given the number of pilots coming into aviation compared to the number leaving over the next 20 years, there will either be a shortage or a major shift in how many pilots are needed in the flight deck.

That's the long view though. How dare I think past 6 months from now!

Again, that will NOT happen at the Major Airline level. I have the retirements of every Legacy/Major carrier as well as the number of pilots at the Regional level, we've done the math, worked the flow charts out for pilots, and no matter the hiring scenario, even if airlines DON'T shrink capacity to raise prices (which they've already admitted they plan to do), in an even-numbers hiring scenario (hiring the same number as they retire), you never, ever get to the point where there aren't qualified RJ drivers with PLENTY of total time and turbine PIC meeting the minimums and ready to take the job.

As such, you will never see a pay increase at the bottom that isn't part of normal Section 6 negotiations at a Major airline and the Majors won't have to lower their "minimum" standards. They may not get as many of their "preferred" candidates, but there's just too many RJ guys, and as those CA's get those jobs, the F/O's slide into CA positions, get their 1,000+ PIC inside of 18 months, and meet the minimums themselves.

It simply won't happen at the Majors. ALPA has done that math; I challenge anyone to prove me wrong with actual retirement data.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

Perfectly-worded, and well-said.


Again, that will NOT happen at the Major Airline level. I have the retirements of every Legacy/Major carrier as well as the number of pilots at the Regional level, we've done the math, worked the flow charts out for pilots, and no matter the hiring scenario, even if airlines DON'T shrink capacity to raise prices (which they've already admitted they plan to do), in an even-numbers hiring scenario (hiring the same number as they retire), you never, ever get to the point where there aren't qualified RJ drivers with PLENTY of total time and turbine PIC meeting the minimums and ready to take the job.

As such, you will never see a pay increase at the bottom that isn't part of normal Section 6 negotiations at a Major airline and the Majors won't have to lower their "minimum" standards. They may not get as many of their "preferred" candidates, but there's just too many RJ guys, and as those CA's get those jobs, the F/O's slide into CA positions, get their 1,000+ PIC inside of 18 months, and meet the minimums themselves.

It simply won't happen at the Majors. ALPA has done that math; I challenge anyone to prove me wrong with actual retirement data.

The cool thing is that there's a right answer, and it won't be too many years before it will be easy to tell what it is.

 

[HA25]

hiring boom, eh? A good friend recently went to a Hawaiian interview which lasted 5 days, with no hotel provided, or positive space travel... he expected to see a handful there; he was shocked to find that he was one of 40 mostly highly qualified pilots there that week, and that they'd been interviewing some 40/week for the past few months... more over, of that 40, they expect maybe 5-6 to get called back for the 2nd part of the interview where they then can weed you out with their psych tests... that's not a shortage, not even close.

 

[jonjuan]

hiring boom, eh? A good friend recently went to a Hawaiian interview which lasted 5 days, with no hotel provided, or positive space travel... he expected to see a handful there; he was shocked to find that he was one of 40 mostly highly qualified pilots there that week, and that they'd been interviewing some 40/week for the past few months... more over, of that 40, they expect maybe 5-6 to get called back for the 2nd part of the interview where they then can weed you out with their psych tests... that's not a shortage, not even close.

When no one else is currently hiring, what do you expect? Fast forward 3 years when the floodgates will open Hal will have to spend $$$ to even get the likes of johnsonrod hired.

 

[HA25]

When no one else is currently hiring, what do you expect? Fast forward 3 years when the floodgates will open Hal will have to spend $$$ to even get the likes of johnsonrod hired.

no one? Alaska is hiring, US Air has been and just reopened their window, Atlas has been hiring, Virgin, Southwest, and now Delta reopened their window... on and off there has been quite a bit of hiring...

 

[dustrpilot]

Southwest is hiring?