Mainline airline pilot hiring to increase

[pilotyip]

Que Kit Darby!

Wish there had been a Kit Darby when I got out of the Navy in 1977, face to face time with a recruiter would have been a good thing.

 

[livin'thesim]

I agree about the regionals. I don't expect the majors to be lacking qualified applicants.

I do think it will be hard to get people for the regionals. Especially since the 1500 hour rule will be in effect and the new flight/duty rules will make regionals much less efficient than before.

Many regionals will probably have a revolving door in training, which will lead to unsustainable costs, and probably safety issues as well.

 

[Lear70]

I agree about the regionals. I don't expect the majors to be lacking qualified applicants.

^^^^ THIS ^^^^

Anything else is a pipe dream.

 

[ASA_Aviator]

^^^^ THIS ^^^^

Anything else is a pipe dream.

The competitive mins will change, and the majors will have to compete for the best applicants, but there won't be an actual shortage of applicants meeting the min requirements.

If you define "shortage" as literally no one qualified to apply to a major, then yes you are correct that will never happen.

Most rational people define "shortage" as the landscape of pilot recruitment shifting in favor of the applicant. That, without question, is going to happen. The majors already know this, and are preparing for it.

 

[DCMartin]

There are over 20,000 regional pilots, plus many cargo, military and corporate who are ready to move on. If AA's scope reaches 88 seats and UCAL doesn't hold the line where it's at then expect less jobs on the major level. When any Career airline opens its doors expect 10,000+ qualified resumes. I don't expect to see any noticeable movement till 2017 assuming age 67 isn't passed by then.

 

[livin'thesim]

What is unknown is the future size of the regional fleets. It is possible that if substantial shifts in the economy occur in tandem with persistently high fuel prices, it is conceivable that regional flying will decrease overall, or be consolidated into fewer carriers, meaning that the so-called shortage will be nothing more than what I would call "brisk hiring".

If regional flying stays relatively similar, the demand at the regional level, ESPECIALLY in light of the huge flight/duty change could pose problems.

Do the math on a typical regional pilot's number of legs and duty start time, and you can see that regional flying may become non-viable in some cases.

Raises will be required at regionals just to compensate for the reduced number of flight hours that pilots will be able to complete. Add in the brisk hiring at the majors and regionals could have turnover rates too high to justify.

The 1500 hour rule is an additional complication for the regionals while we wait for the training pipeline to spool up again.

 

[labbats]

I think the internet created this pilot vacuum. The knowledge of what awaits an aspiring pilot is enough to turn most away. Knowledge is power and it's finally coming home to roost.

Bear in mind that I'm in agreement with everyone else when it comes to the majors. Maybe in 15-20 years there will be a shortage, but who knows what technology will be around then. For all we know all cargo flying could be done with UAVs. Then all the cargo pilots are vying for a job at the majors. It never ends.

 

[flyboyike]

Mainline hiring has been "increasing" since before my first solo. The only thing that HAS increased is retirement age, 'cause that's just and fair.

 

[pilotyip]

The competitive mins will change, and the majors will have to compete for the best applicants, but there won't be an actual shortage of applicants meeting the min requirements.

If you define "shortage" as literally no one qualified to apply to a major, then yes you are correct that will never happen.

Most rational people define "shortage" as the landscape of pilot recruitment shifting in favor of the applicant. That, without question, is going to happen. The majors already know this, and are preparing for it.

Very well put, the increase in hiring will shift the process to more of a sellers markets than the buyer market we have today. I saw guys get hired a UAL, NWA without college degrees back in the late 90's.

 

[Lear70]

You guys let me know how that works out for you... *snicker*