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Mainline airline pilot hiring to increase

pilotyip

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cldsfr79

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There are over 20,000 regional pilots, plus many cargo, military and corporate who are ready to move on. If AA's scope reaches 88 seats and UCAL doesn't hold the line where it's at then expect less jobs on the major level. When any Career airline opens its doors expect 10,000+ qualified resumes. I don't expect to see any noticeable movement till 2017 assuming age 67 isn't passed by then.


Since the optimism got sucked out of me once I became a "professional pilot", I'm going to have to agree with this statement.

I remember when NWA did a tad of hiring in 2007? They got over 5000 resumes within a couple days for only couple hundred positions.

The airlines seem to keep coping with attrition just fine. Even if they are forced to hire, it's probably going to be a trickle and things will still be very competitive over the next decade; If you are not a minority, female, or have a "buddy" at the airline, it may be very difficult to get in.

(I heard of this guy at my place of business that marked the "african american" bock even though he was "white". He got called in for an interview, they saw that he really wasn't "african american" and asked him to leave!) Ok, so he lied, but it proved a point.
 

igneousy2

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If you define "shortage" as literally no one qualified to apply to a major, then yes you are correct that will never happen.

Most rational people define "shortage" as the landscape of pilot recruitment shifting in favor of the applicant. That, without question, is going to happen. The majors already know this, and are preparing for it.


No I disagree with you...I think most media looking for a catchy headline, Kit Darby, and airline recuiters think a shifting in favor of applicants is a "shortage." I think most rational people would say that the situation would be "less of a surplus" We are a long way from having a SHORTAGE of pilot applicants at the major airline level.

You don't need a high school diploma to work at just about any McDonalds. If for years at a certain McDonalds the economy in an area was so bad that this McDonalds started requiring all applicants to have a 4 year college degree. Then things started picking up in the economy and this McDonalds owner had to drop the requirement to an Associates Degree. Would most rational people believe the owner when they said that "there is a shortage of McDonalds applicants" because there was a shifting of requirements in favor of the McDonalds Applicants? Not likely.

I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.

We (as all pilots) need to be careful how we word this because this will come back to bite us. If the public perception is that there is a SHORTAGE of pilots then that plays into the hands of the airlines because that gives them very strong arguments in congress for the removal of 65, MMPL, and relaxed cabotage rules.
 
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ASA_Aviator

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No I disagree with you...I think most media looking for a catchy headline, Kit Darby, and airline recuiters think a shifting in favor of applicants is a "shortage." I think most rational people would say that the situation would be "less of a surplus" We are a long way from having a SHORTAGE of pilot applicants at the major airline level.

You don't need a high school diploma to work at just about any McDonalds. If for years at a certain McDonalds the economy in an area was so bad that this McDonalds started requiring all applicants to have a 4 year college degree. Then things started picking up in the economy and this McDonalds owner had to drop the requirement to an Associates Degree. Would most rational people believe the owner when they said that "there is a shortage of McDonalds applicants" because there was a shifting of requirements in favor of the McDonalds Applicants? Not likely.

I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.

We (as all pilots) need to be careful how we word this because this will come back to bite us. If the public perception is that there is a SHORTAGE of pilots then that plays into the hands of the airlines because that gives them very strong arguments in congress for the removal of 65, MMPL, and relaxed cabotage rules.

Given the number of pilots coming into aviation compared to the number leaving over the next 20 years, there will either be a shortage or a major shift in how many pilots are needed in the flight deck.

That's the long view though. How dare I think past 6 months from now!
 

Lear70

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I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.

We (as all pilots) need to be careful how we word this because this will come back to bite us. If the public perception is that there is a SHORTAGE of pilots then that plays into the hands of the airlines because that gives them very strong arguments in congress for the removal of 65, MMPL, and relaxed cabotage rules.
Perfectly-worded, and well-said.

Given the number of pilots coming into aviation compared to the number leaving over the next 20 years, there will either be a shortage or a major shift in how many pilots are needed in the flight deck.

That's the long view though. How dare I think past 6 months from now!
Again, that will NOT happen at the Major Airline level. I have the retirements of every Legacy/Major carrier as well as the number of pilots at the Regional level, we've done the math, worked the flow charts out for pilots, and no matter the hiring scenario, even if airlines DON'T shrink capacity to raise prices (which they've already admitted they plan to do), in an even-numbers hiring scenario (hiring the same number as they retire), you never, ever get to the point where there aren't qualified RJ drivers with PLENTY of total time and turbine PIC meeting the minimums and ready to take the job.

As such, you will never see a pay increase at the bottom that isn't part of normal Section 6 negotiations at a Major airline and the Majors won't have to lower their "minimum" standards. They may not get as many of their "preferred" candidates, but there's just too many RJ guys, and as those CA's get those jobs, the F/O's slide into CA positions, get their 1,000+ PIC inside of 18 months, and meet the minimums themselves.

It simply won't happen at the Majors. ALPA has done that math; I challenge anyone to prove me wrong with actual retirement data.
 

ASA_Aviator

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Perfectly-worded, and well-said.


Again, that will NOT happen at the Major Airline level. I have the retirements of every Legacy/Major carrier as well as the number of pilots at the Regional level, we've done the math, worked the flow charts out for pilots, and no matter the hiring scenario, even if airlines DON'T shrink capacity to raise prices (which they've already admitted they plan to do), in an even-numbers hiring scenario (hiring the same number as they retire), you never, ever get to the point where there aren't qualified RJ drivers with PLENTY of total time and turbine PIC meeting the minimums and ready to take the job.

As such, you will never see a pay increase at the bottom that isn't part of normal Section 6 negotiations at a Major airline and the Majors won't have to lower their "minimum" standards. They may not get as many of their "preferred" candidates, but there's just too many RJ guys, and as those CA's get those jobs, the F/O's slide into CA positions, get their 1,000+ PIC inside of 18 months, and meet the minimums themselves.

It simply won't happen at the Majors. ALPA has done that math; I challenge anyone to prove me wrong with actual retirement data.

The cool thing is that there's a right answer, and it won't be too many years before it will be easy to tell what it is.
 

HA25

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hiring boom, eh? A good friend recently went to a Hawaiian interview which lasted 5 days, with no hotel provided, or positive space travel... he expected to see a handful there; he was shocked to find that he was one of 40 mostly highly qualified pilots there that week, and that they'd been interviewing some 40/week for the past few months... more over, of that 40, they expect maybe 5-6 to get called back for the 2nd part of the interview where they then can weed you out with their psych tests... that's not a shortage, not even close.
 

jonjuan

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hiring boom, eh? A good friend recently went to a Hawaiian interview which lasted 5 days, with no hotel provided, or positive space travel... he expected to see a handful there; he was shocked to find that he was one of 40 mostly highly qualified pilots there that week, and that they'd been interviewing some 40/week for the past few months... more over, of that 40, they expect maybe 5-6 to get called back for the 2nd part of the interview where they then can weed you out with their psych tests... that's not a shortage, not even close.

When no one else is currently hiring, what do you expect? Fast forward 3 years when the floodgates will open Hal will have to spend $$$ to even get the likes of johnsonrod hired.
 

HA25

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When no one else is currently hiring, what do you expect? Fast forward 3 years when the floodgates will open Hal will have to spend $$$ to even get the likes of johnsonrod hired.

no one? Alaska is hiring, US Air has been and just reopened their window, Atlas has been hiring, Virgin, Southwest, and now Delta reopened their window... on and off there has been quite a bit of hiring...
 

HA25

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Southwest is hiring?

they have on and off quite a bit over the past couple of years... I know quite a few who got on or interviewed..
 

jonjuan

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Southwest isn't hiring, nor is delta. Alaska it's a slow trickle. Virgin America? Good luck there. For all intents and purposes, no one is currently hiring.
 
K

kj6991

no one? Alaska is hiring, US Air has been and just reopened their window, Atlas has been hiring, Virgin, Southwest, and now Delta reopened their window... on and off there has been quite a bit of hiring...

You're an idiot
 

HA25

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pilotyip

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You're an idiot
my doesn't that the world a better place; it so FI, you fit right in. True they may not being hiring today, but they getting ready to interview, which is the step before hiring.
 

atpcliff

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I think most rational people would say that a Shortage does not happen until we see an upward shift in pay because of the supply in the market. If we start seeing companies voluntarily shifting first year pay upwards, that's when we'll know that there is truly a pilot shortage.
Small airbus captain pay rose from around $12K/month to $18-$20K/month in the last four years. That is starting, first year pay. It was not because of a surplus of pilots.

cliff
GRB
 

Lear70

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Small airbus captain pay rose from around $12K/month to $18-$20K/month in the last four years. That is starting, first year pay. It was not because of a surplus of pilots.

cliff
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Where did it do that? Overseas?

I think most of us only give a rat's about what the Legacy pay rates and work rules are doing. The only ones who will go overseas and fly are those who can't get jobs here in the states, either because they don't pay enough (Regionals) or because no one is hiring (Majors).

When the Legacy pay rates come up as a result of a shortage of pilots (and not due to Sec 6 negotiations), we'll talk. ;)
 

pilotyip

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Who is they?
those theys

no one? Alaska is hiring, US Air has been and just reopened their window, Atlas has been hiring, Virgin, Southwest, and now Delta reopened their window... on and off there has been quite a bit of hiring...
 

Dumb Pilot

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Where did it do that? Overseas?

I think most of us only give a rat's about what the Legacy pay rates and work rules are doing. The only ones who will go overseas and fly are those who can't get jobs here in the states, either because they don't pay enough (Regionals) or because no one is hiring (Majors).

When the Legacy pay rates come up as a result of a shortage of pilots (and not due to Sec 6 negotiations), we'll talk. ;)

I had a job offer here at a so called legacy, turned it down and went overseas, I know of several guys that have given up their seniority to stay as well. So it isn't that cut and dry, but I agree with you that the conditions that have been affecting the T&C's abroad won't materialize here in the US, the division of the workforce into two distinct areas of the profession and the consequent stagnation, has created a pool of experienced pilots for the legacy carriers that wont dry up even after the retirement numbers start increasing, and as far as the regionals go, this is the US after all, there is somebody always willing to upen up another flight school if the business environment is right. As far as the new 1,500 hour rule, well, if it really start hurting the regionals (although I think the hiring will be gradual enough that I do t think it will) the FAA in all their wisdom will issue a waiver.
 
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