CitationLover
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http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0537335420070705
lower than projected second quarter revenue.
lower than projected second quarter revenue.
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Lo and behold, Forklift Joe running into same problem as Oak Creek Timmy
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I wouldn't say its the same problem as Oak Creek Timmey.... Oak Creek Timmey is trying to make a profit, any profit.... While Joe Leonard is probably dealing with record profits at AAI.... Oh ya, record load factors for June and Q2 as well.. Face it... Midwest is a gonner, and your gonna be working for "forklift Joe".. Better get used to it, or start sending out your resumes..
maxblast72
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If you would have done your homework, you have seen that Airtran's average stage length increased about 6% to 680 miles thus bring CASM and RASM down. As long as RASM is higher than CASM (something Midwest has had trouble figuring out over the last 5 years), we should be reporting a record quarter in a few weeks. Forklift Joe may not be the best with employee relations, but he hasn't done too shabby of job trippling the size of Airtran profitably over the last 8 years.
SkiFishFly
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Propsync
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Because management has more fun squeezing it out of their employees. Ticket prices have come up a little. Southwest has raised prices as of late. Problem is, everyone else is trying not to, just to capture some of what has been lost to a LCC.
It is really odd that Midwest has these traffic problems WITHOUT competition. I can see in Airtran's case, pricing is crucial. My only guess is that the leisure flying market really is start to feel the gas prices, ARM's going up, etc., is really starting to hamper their spending habits. The first thing that gets shelved is vacation.
It is really odd that Midwest has these traffic problems WITHOUT competition. I can see in Airtran's case, pricing is crucial. My only guess is that the leisure flying market really is start to feel the gas prices, ARM's going up, etc., is really starting to hamper their spending habits. The first thing that gets shelved is vacation.
Kharma Police
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Being on the bottom you should hope your future company doesn't furlough. You're the one who likes to bring up AA/TWA, right?!?
CitationLover
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we're doing fine now with no bankruptcy in the past (how many carriers can say that). the SMART managers want NO COMPETITION on their route structure.
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CitationLover
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well midwest was making lots of money when you guys had the little blue smiley airplane on the sides and they are making money now. air tran is making record profits because it is growing and still young. holla back when you're 23 years old. they're making money now too and have it in unrestricted cash, while aai's cash is tied to airplane deliveries and operations (this is why AAI can afford this buyout as they are simply using MEH's cash on hand to finance it). you're financial picture ain't as rosey as you guys portray it.
CitationLover
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all things staying the same (ie no air tran), i do not see MEH furloughing in the near future. if they do, then you deal with it.
your analogy shows how stupid your point is. so i WANT to be furloughed by having AAI buy MEH? cause that's what happened with AA/TWA.
CitationLover
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and air tran too (p. 18 of the 2006 annual report) slick
2006 2005 2004 2003 2002
Passenger revenue per ASM(7) 9.56¢ 9.09¢ 8.39¢ 8.86¢ 8.64¢
Operating cost per ASM (CASM)(8) 9.74¢ 9.28¢ 8.45¢ 8.28¢ 8.51¢
Kharma Police
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You seem to get your jollies by posting negative tripe about AirTran, I still think it's funny you being midwest's #1 cheerleader and you are not even done with training, although your profile says you flown the 717 (maybe on the J/S?). Check back with us after you've flown the line, OK?
CitationLover
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so you lose an argument through your bad analogy and resort to this? ha! jollies about negative airtran no. it's you guys who post the midwest "growth rj plan" and kharma dictates airtrans growth plan via rj's. it's you guys who post the lowered MEH 2nd qtr estimate and when kharma shows airtran is doing the same darn (or should i say daggumb to fit in at ATL) thing you say i get my jollies? i am simply responding to your woodies about a MKE domicile for airtran.
i flew the line before. i know what a bad situation is. midwest/airtran is certainly not that. a 717 flies no differently than the crj and is easier to fly than a 1900. flying the line at MEH is certainly better than flying the line at the regionals. but to satisfy your thirst, i will change my profile.
again worry about your contract, follow lear70's excellent lead, and not about us in MKE.
MEH cheerleader? I do like the general lee of meh!
http://www.denham.us/fretwork-cheerleader.jpg
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Kharma Police
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So, I guess still in training? Anyway, my point was that either way you are going to be at the bottom of AirTran's or Midwest's senority list, it's not like you have alot to lose senority wise. Since AirTran will more than likely acquire Midwest, it is in your best interests for AirTran to succeed. As far as "worrying about our contract", given your numerous post regarding the AirTran contract negotiations, one would of thought you worked for us, (you had more posts on the topic than most other AirTran pilots and me), so much for minding your own house. BTW I personally like Midwest, I think they have a great product, but I think the Midwest acquisition is a bad idea for AirTran for reasons I have already stated.
P.S. The 717 flies differently then the CRJ, control tabs versus hydraulic flight controls. Good luck on IOE!
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CitationLover
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trust me, if the deal happens i will support airtran. but some of us like the small airline feel and came here primarily cause of that. if the airtran deal happens, then i will deal with that. i agree i really have nothing to lose except those newhires at AAI coming after my hiredate (some already).
of course i worry about your TA. it highlights what may happen if and when we are bought and how our merged contract will perhaps look.
so far i enjoy the mcboeing experience.
Lear70
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Simma, guys, simma... 
I actually don't think you'll lose a lot of that "small airline feel" after the deal. Very few AAI guys want to head north and not too many MEH guys seem to want to drift south.
I do hope that we can pick up some of the Midwest customer service - something many of our gate agents and customer service folk seem to lack, despite all efforts by corporate to train it into them (give 'em the pickle).
As far as the CRJ versus the 717. The 717 is easier from a flying standpoint once you get the goofy thing programmed and airborne. Dang thing nearly flies itself... Landing is another story. Getting consistently good landings in the 717 is a lot easier said than done, and this is my 3rd Boeing.
Negotiations and the T.A.? Don't get me started...
I actually don't think you'll lose a lot of that "small airline feel" after the deal. Very few AAI guys want to head north and not too many MEH guys seem to want to drift south.
I do hope that we can pick up some of the Midwest customer service - something many of our gate agents and customer service folk seem to lack, despite all efforts by corporate to train it into them (give 'em the pickle).
As far as the CRJ versus the 717. The 717 is easier from a flying standpoint once you get the goofy thing programmed and airborne. Dang thing nearly flies itself... Landing is another story. Getting consistently good landings in the 717 is a lot easier said than done, and this is my 3rd Boeing.
Negotiations and the T.A.? Don't get me started...
CitationLover
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the service aspect is where the real "value" of midwest is. it has led to an incredibly loyal customer base. post 9/11 when people were furloughed and a concessionary contract was signed, this service was the only identity people had to the "good ole days". the people who will fight the merger the most are the senior CA's who do not want to see their day trips go away (even though they will probably go away when the MD80 is replaced).
you gotta give tim credit for being consistent. even with the fleet replacement he is standing to his business sense and not cowtailing to pressure: slow and deliberate.
you gotta give tim credit for being consistent. even with the fleet replacement he is standing to his business sense and not cowtailing to pressure: slow and deliberate.
CitationLover
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sounds a lot like the CRJ700. no cheater trailing link like the 200/100. stiff landing gear.
at least i have an excuse.
Hey citation... Last time I looked Meh didn't make any money last quarter... Well, not without basically selling their fuel hedges... Don't forget, the reason the AAI guys have their pantys in a not over MEH is becasue Old Timmey was the one who started bashing AAI about their business plan being broken. Talk about carma, it looks like Timmeys great business plan isn't working, yet AAI's is working better than expected (ie, beating first quarter estimates by around 9 Million). BTW... AAI's estimated earnings for Q2 are still 42 million, as of 7/06/07. Yep, that would still be record earning for AAI. Oh ya, and that was updated after your magical article was written... HMMMMM Again, it doesn't seem AAI is having the problems MEH is having.. Plus, you might wanna do some research about how "strong" or week AAI is.. I will never say thier strong, because that can change in a heartbeat, however, AAI has a good amount of cash on hand. Plus, as far as investors go, its one of the highest rated airline stocks there is...
CitationLover
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MEH did not sell any fuel hedges. they realized the net increase in the value of their fixed fuel contracts in the 1Q when they were purchased, even though they are used throughout the year. this is inline with SFAS 133/138. this added $19.9 million to the income statement and gave us the positive operating income for 1Q. yes they earned money last quarter (albeit a paper profit/income). my LIMITED understanding of SFAS 133/138 is that if oil keeps going up our fixed fuel contract values will increase and we will realize those gains over the 19.9 already realized. it is my understanding we are 90% hedged at roughly $50/bbl for 2007.
timmy stated that about AAI because they do not want this to happen. forklift spouts off about MEH reforecasting 2Q earnings est. (+$.36/share now) then does the same thing on their side of things (reforecasts a lower, positive earnings forecast). he then spouts off about their "failed" business plan with NO elements of the plan in place yet (2 CRJ's, no codeshare effects yet, the new MD80's not online yet, the capacity being increased). they're both taking pot shots in the PR war.
i would HOPE aai has record earnings/profits as it is GROWING a large amount. if it was NOT a record amount, a flag should be raised. aai NEEDS this deal more than meh needs it (if it doesn't happen then aai becomes a takeover target themselves), hence the persistency and increased offers over the last 2 years.
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Foregive me for being stupid, but please show me where AAI reforecast their Q2 earnings? Yes, pax revenue did fall just over 5%, but so did non fuel costs. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where Q2 Forecasts have been "reforecast" to be lower. Like I said before, as of Fri. AAI was still forecasting a gain of 42 million for Q2. Im pretty sure that has been pretty consistant for the last several months. Nothing new since they filed with the SEC that pax revinue had dropped...............AS far as AAI needing this more than MEH, I think you would be hard pressed to find any investors who would side with you. MEH is going to fail, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but it will happen. Too much pressure from AAI, NWA, and others on the routes that MEH uses to make money... This is the reason MEH has a new business plan, they are changing the configuration on all thier aircraft, signing up skywest, etc. The old business plan wasn't working, and so far, neither is the new one... AAI could be a target of takeover weather they buy MEH or not. Remember, MEH only has a few airplanes and around 350 pilots. Its not like AAI is doubling in size here. Hell, a MKE base could make AAI even more of a takeover target.
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CitationLover
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sure the company said the revenue was off and then sugarcoated it with the "fuel cost" comment. look at what happened to the stock that day, it fell 4%. since you cannot "comprehend" this let me mathematically 'splain it to you, ok.
in '000's
Pax Revenue in 2006 Annual Report - 1,816,179
5% of Pax Revenue - 90,809
Fuel Expense - 675,336
Total Expenses - 1,851,222
Non Fuel Expenses - 1,175,886
5% of Non Fuel Expenses - 58,794
which one of these is bigger? hmmmm...so a $32 million dollar hit to operating income (a 5% drop in pax revenue and non fuel operating costs leads to a 76% drop on operating income) on an annualized basis, but this is only 2Q so a conservative estimate (lowball) would be $8 million hit, since 2/3Q revenues generally drive annual numbers. that being said, this is simply based on the general information being presented.
again, i hope for your future and ours, if we're bought, that aai's plans are good and fruitful. but don't blindly believe the company (after all they are reporting RECORDS but are offering CRAP in terms of a contract).
ultrarunner
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Hey Lear, you better pull out your certificate and take a look at it. Your TYPE says DC-9.
Nothing Boeing about it!
Ultra.
Ok Citation.. If your so smart, then "splain" something to me.. If this is the case, why didn't the company lower thier earnings estimate? Like I said, as of Friday, when the revised estimates came out, the Q2 estimates were still calling for a profit of 42 million.. Trust me, AAI is not having the problems that MEH is having, like it or not, MEH won't be around in 5 or 10 years. AAI's takeover or not.. Thier business plan is broken, and MEH is scrambling to change their business plan to turn things around, and it still aint working..
But, remember, our union is going back to negotiations in the next couple days. AAI will report profits near the end of July.. If you were managment, wouldn't you spell doom and gloom right now as well? If were still negotiating when the profits come out, and they hit thier own estimates, the company is quickly going to run out of excuses on why they can't pay FO's industry average..
But, remember, our union is going back to negotiations in the next couple days. AAI will report profits near the end of July.. If you were managment, wouldn't you spell doom and gloom right now as well? If were still negotiating when the profits come out, and they hit thier own estimates, the company is quickly going to run out of excuses on why they can't pay FO's industry average..
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Do you guys have computers permanently glued to yourselves? How the hell do you guys post so damn much? And by the way who cares, Airtran is gonna make big money this quarter, and this year,and like it or not, this merger sounds like it is going through. We need to focus on how we are going to get liveable contract from the powers that be. I'm not talking about the supposed 3 day sessions about to take place either. Why don't you guys put your wits together and come up with something in that area? You're starting to sound like a bunch of bitchin bettys!
CitationLover
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they sugar coat the estimates, i am simply going off of what wall street did and it went down 4%. if the stock is in theory the present value of future earnings then those earnings decreased by 4% according to investors actions.
parethd70 you are correct, my bad, it was unit revenue that fell. if the average stage length lengthened by 5% then revenue will not have fallen. any idea what the stage lengths increased by? also i am not saying revenue is falling from ACTUAL numbers, but they are lower than PROJECTED numbers. with the fleet growth it better be double digit over last year.
gt1900, i hope you are right about them running out of excuses. i doubt they will spell doom and gloom as they want the best facade for the meh investors to see. they have been saying what you have been saying regarding meh for 23 years. if we are so bad and a drain, why even buy us?
RIDETHELIGHTING
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CitationLover
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could that have been the change on 7/6/7. 6.7% drop. we'll know the real number on the 26th.
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