Lo and behold, Forklift Joe running into same problem as Oak Creek Timmy

[gt1900]

Foregive me for being stupid, but please show me where AAI reforecast their Q2 earnings? Yes, pax revenue did fall just over 5%, but so did non fuel costs. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where Q2 Forecasts have been "reforecast" to be lower. Like I said before, as of Fri. AAI was still forecasting a gain of 42 million for Q2. Im pretty sure that has been pretty consistant for the last several months. Nothing new since they filed with the SEC that pax revinue had dropped...............AS far as AAI needing this more than MEH, I think you would be hard pressed to find any investors who would side with you. MEH is going to fail, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but it will happen. Too much pressure from AAI, NWA, and others on the routes that MEH uses to make money... This is the reason MEH has a new business plan, they are changing the configuration on all thier aircraft, signing up skywest, etc. The old business plan wasn't working, and so far, neither is the new one... AAI could be a target of takeover weather they buy MEH or not. Remember, MEH only has a few airplanes and around 350 pilots. Its not like AAI is doubling in size here. Hell, a MKE base could make AAI even more of a takeover target.

 

[CitationLover]

Foregive me for being stupid, but please show me where AAI reforecast their Q2 earnings? Yes, pax revenue did fall just over 5%, but so did non fuel costs. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where Q2 Forecasts have been "reforecast" to be lower. Like I said before, as of Fri. AAI was still forecasting a gain of 42 million for Q2. Im pretty sure that has been pretty consistant for the last several months. Nothing new since they filed with the SEC that pax revinue had dropped...............AS far as AAI needing this more than MEH, I think you would be hard pressed to find any investors who would side with you. MEH is going to fail, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but it will happen. Too much pressure from AAI, NWA, and others on the routes that MEH uses to make money... This is the reason MEH has a new business plan, they are changing the configuration on all thier aircraft, signing up skywest, etc. The old business plan wasn't working, and so far, neither is the new one... AAI could be a target of takeover weather they buy MEH or not. Remember, MEH only has a few airplanes and around 350 pilots. Its not like AAI is doubling in size here. Hell, a MKE base could make AAI even more of a takeover target.

sure the company said the revenue was off and then sugarcoated it with the "fuel cost" comment. look at what happened to the stock that day, it fell 4%. since you cannot "comprehend" this let me mathematically 'splain it to you, ok.

in '000's
Pax Revenue in 2006 Annual Report - 1,816,179
5% of Pax Revenue - 90,809

Fuel Expense - 675,336
Total Expenses - 1,851,222
Non Fuel Expenses - 1,175,886
5% of Non Fuel Expenses - 58,794

which one of these is bigger? hmmmm...so a $32 million dollar hit to operating income (a 5% drop in pax revenue and non fuel operating costs leads to a 76% drop on operating income) on an annualized basis, but this is only 2Q so a conservative estimate (lowball) would be $8 million hit, since 2/3Q revenues generally drive annual numbers. that being said, this is simply based on the general information being presented.

again, i hope for your future and ours, if we're bought, that aai's plans are good and fruitful. but don't blindly believe the company (after all they are reporting RECORDS but are offering CRAP in terms of a contract).

 

[ultrarunner]

Getting consistently good landings in the 717 is a lot easier said than done, and this is my 3rd Boeing.

Hey Lear, you better pull out your certificate and take a look at it. Your TYPE says DC-9.

Nothing Boeing about it!

Ultra.

 

[Lear70]

OK, OK,,, fine. It actually says Acme rocket-powered lazy pilot machine, but if I scratch that off it does say DC-9 underneath...

 

[Parethd70]

Total revenue didn't fall by 5 %. RASM fell by 5 % partially due to an average longer stage length.

Total revenue should still increase by roughly 20% over 2Q '06.

 

[gt1900]

Ok Citation.. If your so smart, then "splain" something to me.. If this is the case, why didn't the company lower thier earnings estimate? Like I said, as of Friday, when the revised estimates came out, the Q2 estimates were still calling for a profit of 42 million.. Trust me, AAI is not having the problems that MEH is having, like it or not, MEH won't be around in 5 or 10 years. AAI's takeover or not.. Thier business plan is broken, and MEH is scrambling to change their business plan to turn things around, and it still aint working..

But, remember, our union is going back to negotiations in the next couple days. AAI will report profits near the end of July.. If you were managment, wouldn't you spell doom and gloom right now as well? If were still negotiating when the profits come out, and they hit thier own estimates, the company is quickly going to run out of excuses on why they can't pay FO's industry average..

 

[tubelcane]

Do you guys have computers permanently glued to yourselves? How the hell do you guys post so damn much? And by the way who cares, Airtran is gonna make big money this quarter, and this year,and like it or not, this merger sounds like it is going through. We need to focus on how we are going to get liveable contract from the powers that be. I'm not talking about the supposed 3 day sessions about to take place either. Why don't you guys put your wits together and come up with something in that area? You're starting to sound like a bunch of bitchin bettys!

 

[CitationLover]

Ok Citation.. If your so smart, then "splain" something to me.. If this is the case, why didn't the company lower thier earnings estimate? Like I said, as of Friday, when the revised estimates came out, the Q2 estimates were still calling for a profit of 42 million.. Trust me, AAI is not having the problems that MEH is having, like it or not, MEH won't be around in 5 or 10 years. AAI's takeover or not.. Thier business plan is broken, and MEH is scrambling to change their business plan to turn things around, and it still aint working..

But, remember, our union is going back to negotiations in the next couple days. AAI will report profits near the end of July.. If you were managment, wouldn't you spell doom and gloom right now as well? If were still negotiating when the profits come out, and they hit thier own estimates, the company is quickly going to run out of excuses on why they can't pay FO's industry average..

they sugar coat the estimates, i am simply going off of what wall street did and it went down 4%. if the stock is in theory the present value of future earnings then those earnings decreased by 4% according to investors actions.

parethd70 you are correct, my bad, it was unit revenue that fell. if the average stage length lengthened by 5% then revenue will not have fallen. any idea what the stage lengths increased by? also i am not saying revenue is falling from ACTUAL numbers, but they are lower than PROJECTED numbers. with the fleet growth it better be double digit over last year.

gt1900, i hope you are right about them running out of excuses. i doubt they will spell doom and gloom as they want the best facade for the meh investors to see. they have been saying what you have been saying regarding meh for 23 years. if we are so bad and a drain, why even buy us?

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

2Q earning went from $45 to $42.

 

[CitationLover]

2Q earning went from $45 to $42.

could that have been the change on 7/6/7. 6.7% drop. we'll know the real number on the 26th.

 

[SkiFishFly]

Alls I gots to say is

no Concessions!

 

[PCL_128]

they sugar coat the estimates,

Actually, it's the exact opposite. Corporations for the past few years have been so scared of the DOJ and SEC that they've been consistently under-reporting projected EPS so they don't have to worry about accusations of boosting the short-term stock price with fake earnings projections. If anything, I expect AAI's earnings to be higher than the company is estimating.

i am simply going off of what wall street did and it went down 4%. if the stock is in theory the present value of future earnings then those earnings decreased by 4% according to investors actions.

The efficient market hypothesis is a sham. Ever read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street?" Trying to judge the health of a company by the change in stock price is like trying to determine the temperature outside by putting a thermometer in the freezer.

if we are so bad and a drain, why even buy us?

The two companies put together would make an excellent route structure, and it's just a good fit overall. Midwest on its own isn't an attractive purchase, but by combining the two operations, you could make a truly great airline.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

could that have been the change on 7/6/7. 6.7% drop. we'll know the real number on the 26th.

The $45 has been forcasted for awhile now. It just change.

 

[CitationLover]

The efficient market hypothesis is a sham. Ever read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street?" Trying to judge the health of a company by the change in stock price is like trying to determine the temperature outside by putting a thermometer in the freezer.

Everyone has their opinions regarding the "theories" on Wall Street. I know some brokers who would disagree with Malkiel's thesis. These theories are simply ways to sell books. I was just using one of them to show gt1900 that the market reaction could be used to explain a change in future earnings.

The argument was not the "health" of air tran, but rather if simply 2Q earnings estimates changed.

 

[Ty Webb]

While I love the headline, the rest of your post is pretty devoid of logic.

AirTran is a money-making machine, with 7 consecutive years of profit, while growing at 20% each year.

MEH . . . . ehhh. Not so good.

Be a moot point soon, anyway.


,.

 

[CitationLover]

While I love the headline, the rest of your post is pretty devoid of logic.

AirTran is a money-making machine, with 7 consecutive years of profit, while growing at 20% each year.

MEH . . . . ehhh. Not so good.

Be a moot point soon, anyway.


,.

Devoid of logic? I am simply stating they are ALSO noticing the lowering of domestic demand on their yield and as such lowered expectations for their 2Q numbers. I never said AirTran was not making money, etc (they better since they are a relatively new airline and are growing).

AirTran is a money making machine? $10/share! no, Apple is a money making machine. That being said, please get a money making machine sized contract.

http://www.travelandleisure.com/worldsbest/2007/results.cfm?cat=othercairlinesdomestic

 

[PCL_128]

AirTran is a money making machine? $10/share! no, Apple is a money making machine.

Why on earth are you looking at a share price to determine whether a company is making money? There is absolutely zero relation between raw share price and profitability. As an investor, I'd much rather put my money into AAI than AAPL. Apple's shares are priced at over 30 times forward earnings. AirTran's shares are a mere 11 times forward earnings. I wouldn't put my money anywhere near AAPL.

 

[CitationLover]

AirTran's shares are a mere 11 times forward earnings. I wouldn't put my money anywhere near AAPL.

Sure future PE is 11. AMR is at 7 so why not put your money there? Airtran's current PE is 40. Could it be that the FUTURE AirTran shareprice will fall further? These boys thinks so.

http://www.istockresearch.com/model.html?aai

$4/share in the future, yikes!

I look at share price because that is what it costs me. Profitability will determine how much it will earn for me in general. If AirTran falls to $4 we will be merged twice in the next few years as you will be bought. Actually I was wrong, Exxon/Mobil is a cash machine. $3.50/gal today, bastards!

 

[PCL_128]

Sure future PE is 11. AMR is at 7 so why not put your money there?

I don't put my money in any airline stock. That being said, when you look at all of the valuation metrics, AMR is just plain scary compared to AAI. AMR's shares are over 29 times book value. Compare that to AirTran's shares at only 2.5 times book. AMR's debt/equity should scare any good investor, also.

Airtran's current PE is 40.

Looking at the PE for the TTM is useless for a company that's growing at the rate that AirTran is. Forward PE is a far better indicator.

Could it be that the FUTURE AirTran shareprice will fall further? These boys thinks so.

http://www.istockresearch.com/model.html?aai

$4/share in the future, yikes!

Looks to me like many of the figures in their fancy little formula are wrong. A PE of 78? Not sure where they're getting their numbers.

I look at share price because that is what it costs me.

Share price is meaningless. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have cost 5 figures for many years now simply because Warren Buffet doesn't like stock splits. Share price doesn't mean anything.

 

[gt1900]

Citation..... Just curious, if AAI's stock is going down to $4 per share, then why does AAI have a Mean Recomendation of 1.8..... MEH has a Mean Recomendation of 3.0 (one of the worst in the industry)... HMMMM... Maybe Analysts think AAI isn't such a bad buy afterall.... Well, Since AAI's 1.8 is about the best in the industry.... Please, mister stock guru.. "splain that to me".... I guess most investors are wrong saying that AAI is a "buy" rating... HMMMM.. Why is AAI rated as a "buy" when their stock is going to tank to $4 per share... Please "splain" that to me... Your gonna get over your head real quick.. God, guys like you make me wanna staple the MEH fo's to the bottom.. I hope most aren't like you...