Lo and behold, Forklift Joe running into same problem as Oak Creek Timmy

[gt1900]

Foregive me for being stupid, but please show me where AAI reforecast their Q2 earnings? Yes, pax revenue did fall just over 5%, but so did non fuel costs. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where Q2 Forecasts have been "reforecast" to be lower. Like I said before, as of Fri. AAI was still forecasting a gain of 42 million for Q2. Im pretty sure that has been pretty consistant for the last several months. Nothing new since they filed with the SEC that pax revinue had dropped...............AS far as AAI needing this more than MEH, I think you would be hard pressed to find any investors who would side with you. MEH is going to fail, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but it will happen. Too much pressure from AAI, NWA, and others on the routes that MEH uses to make money... This is the reason MEH has a new business plan, they are changing the configuration on all thier aircraft, signing up skywest, etc. The old business plan wasn't working, and so far, neither is the new one... AAI could be a target of takeover weather they buy MEH or not. Remember, MEH only has a few airplanes and around 350 pilots. Its not like AAI is doubling in size here. Hell, a MKE base could make AAI even more of a takeover target.

 

[CitationLover]

Foregive me for being stupid, but please show me where AAI reforecast their Q2 earnings? Yes, pax revenue did fall just over 5%, but so did non fuel costs. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where Q2 Forecasts have been "reforecast" to be lower. Like I said before, as of Fri. AAI was still forecasting a gain of 42 million for Q2. Im pretty sure that has been pretty consistant for the last several months. Nothing new since they filed with the SEC that pax revinue had dropped...............AS far as AAI needing this more than MEH, I think you would be hard pressed to find any investors who would side with you. MEH is going to fail, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but it will happen. Too much pressure from AAI, NWA, and others on the routes that MEH uses to make money... This is the reason MEH has a new business plan, they are changing the configuration on all thier aircraft, signing up skywest, etc. The old business plan wasn't working, and so far, neither is the new one... AAI could be a target of takeover weather they buy MEH or not. Remember, MEH only has a few airplanes and around 350 pilots. Its not like AAI is doubling in size here. Hell, a MKE base could make AAI even more of a takeover target.

sure the company said the revenue was off and then sugarcoated it with the "fuel cost" comment. look at what happened to the stock that day, it fell 4%. since you cannot "comprehend" this let me mathematically 'splain it to you, ok.

in '000's
Pax Revenue in 2006 Annual Report - 1,816,179
5% of Pax Revenue - 90,809

Fuel Expense - 675,336
Total Expenses - 1,851,222
Non Fuel Expenses - 1,175,886
5% of Non Fuel Expenses - 58,794

which one of these is bigger? hmmmm...so a $32 million dollar hit to operating income (a 5% drop in pax revenue and non fuel operating costs leads to a 76% drop on operating income) on an annualized basis, but this is only 2Q so a conservative estimate (lowball) would be $8 million hit, since 2/3Q revenues generally drive annual numbers. that being said, this is simply based on the general information being presented.

again, i hope for your future and ours, if we're bought, that aai's plans are good and fruitful. but don't blindly believe the company (after all they are reporting RECORDS but are offering CRAP in terms of a contract).

 

[ultrarunner]

Getting consistently good landings in the 717 is a lot easier said than done, and this is my 3rd Boeing.

Hey Lear, you better pull out your certificate and take a look at it. Your TYPE says DC-9.

Nothing Boeing about it!

Ultra.

 

[Lear70]

OK, OK,,, fine. It actually says Acme rocket-powered lazy pilot machine, but if I scratch that off it does say DC-9 underneath...

 

[Parethd70]

Total revenue didn't fall by 5 %. RASM fell by 5 % partially due to an average longer stage length.

Total revenue should still increase by roughly 20% over 2Q '06.

 

[gt1900]

Ok Citation.. If your so smart, then "splain" something to me.. If this is the case, why didn't the company lower thier earnings estimate? Like I said, as of Friday, when the revised estimates came out, the Q2 estimates were still calling for a profit of 42 million.. Trust me, AAI is not having the problems that MEH is having, like it or not, MEH won't be around in 5 or 10 years. AAI's takeover or not.. Thier business plan is broken, and MEH is scrambling to change their business plan to turn things around, and it still aint working..

But, remember, our union is going back to negotiations in the next couple days. AAI will report profits near the end of July.. If you were managment, wouldn't you spell doom and gloom right now as well? If were still negotiating when the profits come out, and they hit thier own estimates, the company is quickly going to run out of excuses on why they can't pay FO's industry average..

 

[tubelcane]

Do you guys have computers permanently glued to yourselves? How the hell do you guys post so damn much? And by the way who cares, Airtran is gonna make big money this quarter, and this year,and like it or not, this merger sounds like it is going through. We need to focus on how we are going to get liveable contract from the powers that be. I'm not talking about the supposed 3 day sessions about to take place either. Why don't you guys put your wits together and come up with something in that area? You're starting to sound like a bunch of bitchin bettys!

 

[CitationLover]

Ok Citation.. If your so smart, then "splain" something to me.. If this is the case, why didn't the company lower thier earnings estimate? Like I said, as of Friday, when the revised estimates came out, the Q2 estimates were still calling for a profit of 42 million.. Trust me, AAI is not having the problems that MEH is having, like it or not, MEH won't be around in 5 or 10 years. AAI's takeover or not.. Thier business plan is broken, and MEH is scrambling to change their business plan to turn things around, and it still aint working..

But, remember, our union is going back to negotiations in the next couple days. AAI will report profits near the end of July.. If you were managment, wouldn't you spell doom and gloom right now as well? If were still negotiating when the profits come out, and they hit thier own estimates, the company is quickly going to run out of excuses on why they can't pay FO's industry average..

they sugar coat the estimates, i am simply going off of what wall street did and it went down 4%. if the stock is in theory the present value of future earnings then those earnings decreased by 4% according to investors actions.

parethd70 you are correct, my bad, it was unit revenue that fell. if the average stage length lengthened by 5% then revenue will not have fallen. any idea what the stage lengths increased by? also i am not saying revenue is falling from ACTUAL numbers, but they are lower than PROJECTED numbers. with the fleet growth it better be double digit over last year.

gt1900, i hope you are right about them running out of excuses. i doubt they will spell doom and gloom as they want the best facade for the meh investors to see. they have been saying what you have been saying regarding meh for 23 years. if we are so bad and a drain, why even buy us?

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

2Q earning went from $45 to $42.

 

[CitationLover]

2Q earning went from $45 to $42.

could that have been the change on 7/6/7. 6.7% drop. we'll know the real number on the 26th.