Let's Start an Airline-Hypothetically

[Publishers]

Routes

As I said it has been awhile.

I don't remember if you remember when Key tried to do service out of Savannah or Air South at Myrtle Beach.

They were trying to do hub and spoke that was for liesure travelers alone. The problems were two for starters

1.. Balance of the flight loads to the southern destinations from northern origination.

2. No traffic generation at the hub itself.

We could look at something like this through Miami or Charolette.

Cities up north like Minneapolis, Buffalo etc to destinations like San Juan Cancun etc with a stop in CLT or MIA.

 

[Astra Guy]

Shadow,

Thanks for proposing some route structure ideas. Let's run with some of your city pairs, just to get started.

As for NYC we need to think about several things. EWR is closest to downtown, from my understanding. ISP surely is an attractive idea but we have to think about where do most of the folks live working in the city. Most travelers will want to go to the airport and spend the day travelling from their home rather than coming from the city. Let's look at ISP-BUR and EWR-BUR. I don't know how far PMD is from the city but that might be an option if not too far from the travelling public.

Quoted rates:

20 days out, Saturday night stay.
ISP-BUR $314 with 2 stops 12 hour travel time.
7 days out $499 2 stops 18.5 out, 13.9 back
Tomorrow $634 2 stops 107 out, 10.1 back AA
Nonstop NA
EWR-BUR $501, one stop, 7.5 hours travel time.
7 days out $554 one stop 8.3 out 13.7 back
Tomorrow $524 two stops 10.5 out 8.7 back
Nonstop to LAX tom. $1021 AA and CA
ISP-SFO $545, one stop 9 hours out 7.5 back
7 days out $670, two stops 11.1 out 10.1 back
Tomorrow $723, two stops 10.6 out, 10.5 back
Nonstop NA
EWR-SFO $181 nonstop both ways. United
7 days out $285 nonstop out, one stop back United
Tomorrow $256 nonstop United
ISP-SEA $312 one stop 8 hours out 7.5 back Delta
7 days out $411 two stops out 9.2 out, one stop back
Tomorrow $501 two stops, 10.3 out, 10.6 back AA
EWR-SEA $301 nonstop both ways. Continental
7 days out $308 one stop both ways 8.4 and 7.3 ATA
Tomorrow $308 ditto
Nonstop tomorrow $1367 CA
ISP-ORD $236 one stop 4+ out 3.5 back Continental
7 days out $281 one stop 4.4 and 4 USAir
Tomorow $336 one stop 4.2 and 3.6 CA
Nonstop NA
EWR-ORD $241 nonstop AA
7 days out $316 nonstop United
Tomorrow $274 nonstop AA
ISP-MDW $235 nonstop Continental
7 days out $569 one stop each way 4.2 and 5 Delta
Tomorrow $335 one stop 4.9 and 5 Delta + partners
Nonstop NA tomorrow
EWR-MDW $240 nonstop Continental
7 days out $240 nonstop Continental
Tomorrow $247 nonstop Continental
BWI-BUR $243 one stop 7.5 out, 6.7 back USAir
7 days out $395 one stop 8.4 out, 10.1 back AA, mixed
Tomorrow $428 two stops 10.9 and 8.3 multiple
Nonstop NA
Nonstop to LAX tom. #1551 United
BWI-SFO $353 one stop 8.2 out, 8.9 back AirTran
7 days out $473 one stop 8.2 out, 6.8 back AirTran, FA
Tomorrow $344 one stop 7.1 out, 6.7 back FA
Nonstop tomorrow $1765 United
BWI-SEA $274 one stop 7.9 out, 6.7 back AA
7 days out $314 one stop 7.9 out, 8.4 back AA
Tomorrow $344 one stop 10.8 out, 6.5 back FA
Nonstop NA
BWI-ORD $183 nonstop AA
7 days out $183 nonstop AA
Tomorrow $404 one stop 5.8 and 3.5
BWI-MDW $192 one stop 6.5 both ways AA
7 days out $192 one stop 3.5 out, 3.4 back CA
Tomorrow $403 one stop 3.5 both ways CA
Nonstop NA
BWI-DAL $277 one stop 5.2 and 6.7 CA
7 days out $429 one stop 5.2 and 4.8 CA
Tomorrow $629 one stop 5.2 and 4.7 CA
Nonstop NA
Nonstop tom. DFW $623 AA

As for the SFO area isn't Oakland actually closer to downtown and Marin(sp) County?

In the Chicago area there might be a way to build a terminal in DPA, west of the city. This is actually closer than MKE and would have no competition on the front end.

In the Dallas area Addison is probably not going to work simply because there is not enough room to squeeze a terminal in. If we could secure gates at DAL that would be the way to go.

Doesn't USAir have a hub in BWI? I like BWI as an option.

What are the pros and cons of FLL vs MIA?

What about MSP? STP sure would be a niche area if one could open up a terminal there. I don't know enough about the negatives politically in that area.

I think one hour turns are realistic. 12 hour days for the aircraft is probably realistic.

 

[Astra Guy]

All,

I discovered some ball park figures for the 757-200. DOCs should run $3.7K/hour. Let's use $4K/hour as our figure. This should allow for some fuel and maintenance fluctuations.

Using a typical ATL-DAL-ATL scenario of 3 hours $12K should cover the DOCs. 60 PAX at $200 would cover the DOCs. Assuming that $8K/hour would cover DOCs and other costs it would take 120 PAX to break even. That is pretty close to normal break even %s of 60% of capacity.

My ideas on interior refurbishments would include the same type of seating and creature comforts offered by JetBlue. In addition we should be able to offer broadband internet access on the same screens displaying the tv programs.

Comments?

 

[Publishers]

fares

Look at some of those fares and figure out how much you have the potential to make.

At FLL cost aroudn $5.50 per boarded passenger to the airline, at MIA it is 13.50.

You have to remember ticket tax, reservation cost, ramp and gate rental , etc.

I made sopme quick calculations on United EWR adn SFO and fail to see how we stay in business like that.

Someone compare those fares by milage with other shorter segments like Charolette Birmingham, New Orleans Little Rock, Oklahoma City Louisville as example.

 

[Astra Guy]

Publishers,

I agree that we have to make some calculations on the fare pricing to see what makes sense. EWR long haul trips are not where we want to be, that is for sure. Actually EWR is not a good place to base out of, just from my flight experience into and out of there. Assuming that the ISP market is underserved, and that is yet to be determined, then we surely could make some inroads there even on long haul trips by charging above the going EWR rates.

This whole process takes more study before we settle on a realistic route structure.

I can come up with flight times to most any destination which should help.

I do think that by configuring the aircraft up front with the bells and whistles could reap a solid payback within our four year time frame.

Thanks for your input on getting this exercise underway.

 

[Astra Guy]

Shadow,

Thanks for the research. I will look at some shorter legs. I do think that we may be able to cover most of the country even with this limitation. I will try to come up with a different route structure. I do agree that ISP may be a good choice, for one. We may look south from there and possibly one of the choices into Chicago.

Do you think BUR is out of the question? What about DEN? I will look at SJC and SFO, as well. STL should be in the mix, in my mind.

I will check some fares with different scenarios. I do believe that if we offer the best creature comforts, customer service and prices that are competitive then we could come up with a revenue/cost structure.

Thanks for your input.

 

[Publishers]

Boarded Passenger

This is a local thing that we would need to check. It encompasses all the airport issues that an airline pays for divided for all departing passengers.

If those who are really interested in this PM me your email, I will forward the Excel file of a start-up carrier and you can see for yourself how to evaluate things.

One suggestion would be to look at something like the EMB 170 or whatever the 80 to 100 passenger versions will be. It is the latest generation and has a feel much more like a regular aircraft than the RJ's. New generation and usually Brazil will make attractive financing available to customers.