The sharks are circling the boat at JB, whether other airlines, our management, the economy.
First of all, the sharks are circling everywhere... I'd be much more worried if I was a F9 guy than B6. Right now, I'd say that mergers are over for awhile (except maybe F9, Spirit, Alliegent). UAL, WN and AA have too much on their plates right now to worry about another merger. If DAL picks up B6, we (at B6) are better off being merged into DAL than you starting over at the bottom of the list at DAL when the merger goes down.
But having a good CA seat at B6 and a DAL recall, my fears are risk... what's the risk of staying vs. leaving. Right now it seems like there's no risk to go w/ one of the big three... there wasn't risk when I got hired at NWA in june of 01 either... or was there?
There's always risk in the airline industry. I'd say Delta has much more international risk than Jetblue. Remember 911? SARS? Desert Storm 1? Delta is very exposed in Asia... remember, NWA basically owned a big part of Asia w/ UAL. Now DAL has big exposure to international risk everywhere... Europe... Africa... Asia... S. America... at 12500 pilots, a 5% decrease due to bird flu in Asia or let's say a Korean issue is 625 pilots on the street! It can and will happen again in this industry someday. Even having a seniority # at DAL w/ about 900 guys beneath me and going back to 7th year pay, I have huge fears about being furloughed again.
The retirements are there, I'll give you that. That helps quell my fears about going back, but I guarantee you that Richard Anderson, Parker or UAL guy would dump pilots by the hundreds if they needed to.
Jetblue isn't exposed to that international risk like other majors. Either is WN. We were the only two majors who have expanded during the post 911 aftermath and during the great recession. B6 has proved that we are not exposed nearly as much to even a recession in this country. Our tickets are cheap enough and our clientele has shown that they will still visit grandma and disney when the economy blows.
When your list is big like the big three's it's very easy to either stop hiring or furlough hundreds overnight. Now w/ the pending pilot shortage/demand on the near horizon, it seems cool heads have prevailed but that could change overnight as well.
When I was hired at NWA in june of '01, my class was told we'd be DC9 CA's (at 200+/hr) in 4-5 years and never be furloughed... well we know what happend and don't need to be reminded. Also, if the shortage gets real bad we'll see the retirement age upped to 67... only a matter of time. Throw in a good war w/ Korea and China and a bad worldwide economy when this QE and easy money dries up and woa!!!! Furloughes again! No hiring for years...
An old crusty Eastern DC9 CA at NWA told me before I lenallft on my furlough... Don't get carried away always looking over the fence and seniority is everything in this industry!
He's right. I don't know if I'll go back to DAL. I really hope B6 gets it's $hit together and finally brings our comp. up to industry levels... we'll see.
It's a tough decision. I have a guaranteed seat w/ seniority and 7th year pay and I am having a tough time deciding to go back... if you are on the bottom at B6 though???? I'd go in a heartbeat. But remember that Richard Anderson furloughed me under a No Furlough cause at NWA for 5.5 years... guess who's running DAL?????
Tailhookah
