Leave Airtran for United??

[shuttlepilot]

I just talked with a 767 guy from united in IAD, we were both trying to get ot ATL. He had just recently upgraded, still could not hold a line on the 76. Been at UA for 17 years!!

 

[BigMeat]

United = Forever upgrade (longer working for retirement), no airplane orders, no real scope protection.

Airtran= 4year upgrade, scope, recession coming (safer bet), 60 airplanes on order

Culture at Airtran is younger and more fun. United is old and disgruntled.

Andy,

Do you really think that because of a bad economy there will be less airplanes? Maybe less mainline airplanes for United. You sold out your scope relief.

 

[Andy]

Andy,

Do you really think that because of a bad economy there will be less airplanes?

Absolutely. Airlines are either going to park a lot of airplanes or they will die. Airlines will be operating at a loss for the next several years and it won't be easy for them to get lines of credit, unlike post 911.

You fail to understand how deep this recession will be. (Warren Buffett called it a recession this morning http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080303/buffett_economy.html )

The worldwide tightening of credit is going to make this recession much deeper than previous ones. The banking system itself is under considerable strain. I'll assume that you did not watch Bernanke's testimony last week where he stated to Congress that there will be bank failures. For him to make such a statement means that there are severe problems in the banking system. (You know who Bernanke is, right?)
Citibank, Washington Mutual, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and several other big players are in serious trouble. The amount of assets that they've shifted over to level 3 (mark to model; otherwise know as mark to fantasy) is growing daily. For all practical purposes, Citibank is insolvent. They will likely not fail outright due to their size, but they will need to be recapitalized. Again.

In light of all this, you expect air travel to remain constant or grow? You really need to learn the economics of this industry. Air travel is a discretionary expense; it's not a necessity. http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/SLOW02278.xml

In Airtran's case, they may have a saving grace. They have the good fortune of competing against Delta, which seems to have gone on a spending spree just when the economy's starting to turn south.

 

[maxblast72]

Airtran had tons of attrition back in 2000 and 2001. Obviously back then, no one would have guessed that leaving Airtran would have cost them so much money. Here we are 8 years later, and the same attrition numbers are happening again as the legacies are in full hiring mode.

Not that Airtran is the best or worst company to work for in 2008, but the last place I want to be with a slowing economy and $100/barrel oil is the bottom 10% of any legacies' seniority list. Airtran handled the last airline downturn in 2002 and 2003 pretty well, and I imagine they will do alright through this downturn as well.

 

[Yuppyguppy]

United = Forever upgrade (longer working for retirement), no airplane orders, no real scope protection.

Airtran= 4year upgrade, scope, recession coming (safer bet), 60 airplanes on order

Culture at Airtran is younger and more fun. United is old and disgruntled.

Andy,

Do you really think that because of a bad economy there will be less airplanes? Maybe less mainline airplanes for United. You sold out your scope relief.

UMm you just sold 2 more planes today...4 year upgrade??? what are you smoking?

 

[Andy]

Airtran handled the last airline downturn in 2002 and 2003 pretty well, and I imagine they will do alright through this downturn as well.

Airtran had a much greater cost advantage over the legacies back then. Legacies have reduced costs to match Airtran and Jetblue, so it won't be quite as easy for them.
Airtran has little debt, so they're not in bad shape to weather the downturn as long as they don't take delivery of a bunch of new aircraft.

 

[XShuttle]

I just talked with a 767 guy from united in IAD, we were both trying to get ot ATL. He had just recently upgraded, still could not hold a line on the 76. Been at UA for 17 years!!

Just to clarify he was a Captain not an F/O

 

[Andy]

UMm you just sold 2 more planes today...4 year upgrade??? what are you smoking?

I would consider that to be a smart move on Airtran's part. Increasing fleet size right now is foolish.

I don't see this downturn as being one where some airlines are winners and others are losers. Every airline is going to have to curtail service. The mark of a 'good' carrier will not be upgrades, but lack of downgrades.

 

[contrail67]

I just talked with a 767 guy from united in IAD, we were both trying to get ot ATL. He had just recently upgraded, still could not hold a line on the 76. Been at UA for 17 years!!

I bet he could have held 737 or 320 Captain somewhere else before 767 Captain....don't get hung up on the 17 year thing...some of that is his choice and QOL.

 

[pilotgolfer]

I bet he could have held 737 or 320 Captain somewhere else before 767 Captain....don't get hung up on the 17 year thing...some of that is his choice and QOL.

The junior Captain on the 737 was hired in 1998 (give or take) and he's held that position for the last 3 years. Thats more like a 7 year upgrade. All the upgrade numbers at United are going to be schewed (how do you spell that...I'm sure Andy will chime in) by the 6 year break in hiring.