How did United finance the majority of its exit financing? I have heard they used a lot of debt financing vs. equity financing. A lot of airline managment think that is crazy and don't know what United was thinking.
Now United seems to be desperate to merge or be sold (i.e., attract new financing without losing face). Doesn't sound like a company that is confident in its business plan.
These are the type of questions you should be asking. My advice: do your own homework (far beyond starting a thread on flightinfo). After I turned down SWA in 2000 to go to UAL, only to be furloughed in '03, I was consoled by many pilots with statements like "You made the best decision at the time" or "Hey, no one could have known what would happen at UAL." It seemed like the only one not surprised was my dad, who wondered aloud to me when I started at UAL how a company with such a sick balance sheet could even be in business. Of course I listened instead to all of my fellow pilot buddies and their stories of 3 year upgrades, widebodies going to new hires, etc.
I will have to make a similar decision next year and either go back to UAL (I bypassed this summer) or continue with US Airways and be near the bottom of the combined seniority list. When the time comes, this time I will approach the decision like an
investor would, and dig into the numbers. The stuff we all care about--pay, work rules, a/c orders, upgrade times, contracts, mergers, future hiring....it is all either temporary or too hard to predict.
There are a few things about your airline that
are predictable and long lasting that you should pay attention to. The first is culture. Management teams come and go, but by and large, a company's culture endures. The second is long term debt. It hangs like a dark cloud over many a legacy carrier, and is hard to get rid of, even in bankruptcy. Cash on hand is nice, but the more of that there is, the more irresponsible your management will get with it! SWA's control of their long-term debt is a big reason behind their consistent profitablility. Lastly, you have to take a hard look at where you would stand in the pilot group. I was hired at age 36 at UAL, near the end of a massive 6 year hiring wave. Many in this wave are younger than I am. I was originally projected to never get higher than about 2400 on the list (I know this will change after some of the furloughees don't return). The best I can expect at United is to be a narrowbody Capt or widebody F/O. Someone posted some good stuff about the JB group, and how all of the 320 Captains for all of the forecast growth are already on the property (and pretty young, I might add).
Anyway, good thread. Funny to see how attitudes have changed over the past year. Good luck with your decision.
