Jetblue Loses 42.4 Mil

[Blue Dude]

I just fly airplanes and do not have an advanced degree in economics like a lot of guys on this board, but I do have an idea. How about charging what it costs to produce a product?

We did until fuel tripled, genius. Then competition ensured we couldn't raise fares fast enough to keep up. Good thing we have people like you around to show how it ought to be done.

 

[Blue Dude]

.."consisting of $6.9 million in non-cash stock-based compensation expense.."

Great job managment, here is a bonus.

BTW, that $6.9 mill charge was expensing for rank-and-file stock options (pilots, mechs, dispatchers). Management options were not included.

 

[furloughed dude]

Doesn't sound like much profit sharing in '06. Kinda hurts the pay package... But at least the stock options are going to be worth a bundle...not...

I thought Neeleman said Jetblue could make money at these oil prices.

Revenue was a concern of mine at Jetblue. Their RASM is absolutely terrible. They could only remain profitable if their wages were rock bottom. I don't see this changing...

 

[Fins Up]

You got Southwest Airlines in SAT! Anywhere you want to go, baby!!

Dork.

 

[K-Mart]

.

Other than that it should be a good day to buy.

Yeah, and a lot people bought tickets on the Titanic.

 

[JetFumes]

Hey Dave, where exactly do you work? You seem like a person with alot of wit and wisdom. Where exactly would you work if you were a smurf (calling pilots smurfs is a bit degrading, especially since most people are just trying to get thru this industry with out losing their shirt)? I know you like SWA, but what happens to them when the hedges run out and their cost stay the same? Maybe fuel will go down by then, but doesn't that benefit other carriers as well? Since most people just analyze the facts that are in front of them and try to make projections for the near term, your ablitiy to see the future 10 years out must make you a genius! If that is the case I want to know what happens to United, Delta, SWA, AirTran, Northwest, American, Alaska, U.S. Airways, And Frontier, this way I can make some good decisions and benefit from your insight!

 

[Boeingman]

What should be of great concern is not only the numbers, but the trend and rate of change in casm.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Other than that it should be a good day to buy. If they get into the low $11's or better, I will be there with a small investment.


http://www.primezone.com/newsroom/news.html?d=93277

I would buy shares a little later. I'm thinking in the summer or beyond. More articles critical of their losses will come out at the Motley fool and other business oriented periodicals.

I think the new "competitive" environment has not be properly researched. The pressure provided by the new USAir and UAL are going to push shares even lower. Not to mention oil prices. Virgin USA articles will also cause uncertainty.

The positives like SWA raising prices and legacy fleet reductions may help, but it won't help EMB-190 fleet revenue. The RJ flying airlines will be in a full tilt fare war against it.

Overall, I'm looking for lackluster stock performance until later in '06.

Frontier is also feeling the pinch right now.

 

[G100driver]

We did until fuel tripled, genius. Then competition ensured we couldn't raise fares fast enough to keep up. Good thing we have people like you around to show how it ought to be done.

I am more than happy to help. You are welcome.

Now just how to get the competetion to charge what it costs, hhhmmmm. Turn around not fair play?

 

[i fly boxes]

Estimates of .15 cents per share were blown away (.25). In fairness, the actual loss was .19 cents per share due to one time charges for stock vesting and a maintenance tracking system that will not be implemented. This is an extremely poor job of revenue and expense mgt. Jetblue has to learn how to manage their fares like someone else I know (WN). Jetblue needs to adjust their FLL schedule and cutback more at JFK. This would include direct flts on the 190 from upstate and other cities to MCO, PBI, TPA, Ft Myers, as well as BOS & IAD. They are forecasting a loss in the 1st Q as well, and 2006 will be unprofitable.

Other than that it should be a good day to buy. If they get into the low $11's or better, I will be there with a small investment.


http://www.primezone.com/newsroom/news.html?d=93277

LIQUIDATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Falconjet]

Here we go about the hedges again

Hey Dave, where exactly do you work? You seem like a person with alot of wit and wisdom. Where exactly would you work if you were a smurf (calling pilots smurfs is a bit degrading, especially since most people are just trying to get thru this industry with out losing their shirt)? I know you like SWA, but what happens to them when the hedges run out and their cost stay the same? Maybe fuel will go down by then, but doesn't that benefit other carriers as well? Since most people just analyze the facts that are in front of them and try to make projections for the near term, your ablitiy to see the future 10 years out must make you a genius! If that is the case I want to know what happens to United, Delta, SWA, AirTran, Northwest, American, Alaska, U.S. Airways, And Frontier, this way I can make some good decisions and benefit from your insight!

Off topic somewhat, and DS doesn't work for SW anyway, but here goes.

SW will always hedge fuel if they have the resources (ie cash) to do so and supplies remain tight and uncertain. They won't run out.

If they are unable to maintain their pricing advantage with hedges, they will actually raise their fares! Gasp! They will do what it takes to make a profit regardless of the price of fuel, that is the way they run their business. Fuel hedges are a key, yet small part of their business success. They don't just magically appear, they are bought and managed by very smart managers who just happen to make a profit year after year. Having cash on hand opens up all kinds of doors.

Ok, sorry for the rant.

Back to bashing DS.

FJ

 

[Falconjet]

Irony

We did until fuel tripled, genius. Then competition ensured we couldn't raise fares fast enough to keep up. Good thing we have people like you around to show how it ought to be done.

In the dictionary you might find this quote when you look up irony.

A pilot for an LCC blaming the "competition" for not being able to raise fares.

Interesting.

FJ

 

[RocketRob]

You got Southwest Airlines in SAT! Anywhere you want to go, baby!!

o.k. how about Madrid, Spain??

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

On a positive note, I hope Virgin USA is a non-starter as they realize how hard it is to make money in the US. Industry capacity increases may also be held to a minimum.

WAYYY OFF topic---

I wonder if ATA would really be better off with America West. Maybe short term but, if I took a poll, I bet every airline would pick SWA over America West to partner with for long term stability. It sucks needing the help, but I would place a high value on code share privileges with such a stable (for the near future) and airline. I also rate the integrity of SWA management way above most other airlines. IMHO, your "deal" is only worth something if you value the word of the dealmaker.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

If they are unable to maintain their pricing advantage with hedges, they will actually raise their fares! Gasp! They will do what it takes to make a profit regardless of the price of fuel, that is the way they run their business. Fuel hedges are a key, yet small part of their business success. They don't just magically appear, they are bought and managed by very smart managers who just happen to make a profit year after year. Having cash on hand opens up all kinds of doors.

Ok, sorry for the rant.

Back to bashing DS.

FJ

I know its been talked about before, but here goes.

SWA management has been quoted that fares need to go up about $7 to account for less lucrative hedges in '06. We just had a $1-3 fare increase. 2007 is about the same. 2008 and beyond is in question. So, if you wait until 2008, the fuel hedges will "start to run out". Not bragging, stating fact. Its not that far away, but is far enough it will not stifle the pro-SWA rhetoric on flightinfo for awhile.

We're also entering section 6 this summer and, if we go down the path I predict, our costs will continue to climb and SWA routes will start getting challenged in 2008.

Let the serious SWA bashing start in 2008!!!