Jet Blue in Three Years

[mannyaplus11]

Just wondering if Jet Blue has a business plan that will carry them through if
a. Oil stays above 60$/Barrell
and
b. Lease payments increase as they are rumored to in three years.

 

[B6Driver]

We just wake up everyday with our fingers crossed.
I would love to know where and how these rumors start.

 

[klhoard]

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I think I'd be more worried about having to make payments on Duane Woerth's Masserati after 51% of the pilots on JB's seniority list are still flying the E-190 after three years. . .
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[Dizel8]

Maserati?? Did he have to downgrade from the Bentley?

 

[Diesel-9]

If there is any repeat of past cycles, as the majors get their costs in line as they are doing now, they willl be very competitive and thrive and the smaller carriers will feel the competition (crying predatory pricing). Haven't there been 50+ new carriers start up and disolve since deregulation? Mostly during one of these cycles. High oil will hurt them more as the majors have the large revenues to handle it at the same time the others are getting tired and finally asking to be paid for the all the hours and days they work for below par wages making someone else rich.

 

[Redmeat]

If there is any repeat of past cycles, as the majors get their costs in line as they are doing now, they willl be very competitive and thrive and the smaller carriers will feel the competition (crying predatory pricing). Haven't there been 50+ new carriers start up and disolve since deregulation? Mostly during one of these cycles. High oil will hurt them more as the majors have the large revenues to handle it at the same time the others are getting tired and finally asking to be paid for the all the hours and days they work for below par wages making someone else rich.

No offense but either you are being sarcastic, or naively optimistic (about the legacy's).

 

[klhoard]

Maserati?? Did he have to downgrade from the Bentley?

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Haven't you heard? Times are tough. . .
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[Captain Overs]

Boyd seems to think that even if the legacy carriers get their costs in line with the "LLC's" that that will not solve their problems.

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

The airline biz in 3 Years.....

JetBlue has been spending big. They're debt is now at $2 Billion. About the same as SWA's. They will continue to grow debt. That would be a problem but their biggest competitors now have $10-14+ Billion in debt or will struggle with the costs of BK. The USAir/America West merger looks interesting. I think USAir is getting permission to shed debt, AGAIN, as they look to emerge from BK. This is against popular opinion, but I think, this time, USAir will start taking a bite out of East Coast competition.

UAL will soon exit BK as a legacy LCC. I figure in 6 months. (Don't quote me on that, I have been wrong on my previous 6 guesses on their demise or emergence)

NWA is a good 1 1/2 to 2 years from becoming a legacy LCC, but I am optimistic (pessimistic?) they will pull it off. Perhaps after a BK.

Look for the debt issue to drive the boat, IMHO. JetBlue will have rock bottom employee costs but (slightly?) rising debt and mx costs. SWA will have high employee costs, but little debt and a good economy of scale with fewer employees per aircraft.

The legacies, or whoever else stays in the game, have to find an advantage somewhere. Low debt, low pay, BK and broken contracts, profitable international routes or some other specialty.

 

[Deli Guy]

Hey Mannyaplus11!!
I know that call sign anywhere!!! I am going to try and pm you.
Your AWACS buddy
deli guy

 

[Dogwood]

Just wondering if Jet Blue has a business plan that will carry them through if
a. Oil stays above 60$/Barrell
and
b. Lease payments increase as they are rumored to in three years.

Manny,

I doubt $60+ was in any airline's biz plan 5 years ago.

Heck, 10 years ago who even heard of an RJ.

At some point the fares have to rise. If customers want to ride in a machine that burns fuel, they must be willing to pay for said fuel.

DW

 

[Redmeat]

Manny,

I doubt $60+ was in any airline's biz plan 5 years ago.

Heck, 10 years ago who even heard of an RJ.

At some point the fares have to rise. If customers want to ride in a machine that burns fuel, they must be willing to pay for said fuel.

DW

Exactly right, pay for said fuel. But not pay for said crew.

 

[Dogwood]

Exactly right, pay for said fuel. But not pay for said crew.

Redmeat, your point is exactly right but it's all supply and demand. The ugly truth is that refined oil is less plentiful than pilots these days.

What we need is a good old "pilot shortage"? Maybe even a shortage of schools to refine the pilots? I can assure you then, that the pay rates would go up.

When I graduated from Embry-Ridde almost 25 years ago, the speaker told us that a shortage was just around the corner. I'm still waiting.

The RJs have killed our profession, financially. In some cases, a kid can graduate from college and hop right into the cockpit of an ERJ-145 and make $25,000 with no bills to pay other than college loans. 5 years later, that kid is still unmarried with no children and now is competitive for the major positions. He can still work for less, and is willing to do so.

We've gone thru a transition and that's where we are now. The medical profession is in the same boat. They are controlled by the insurance companies, and many docs make far less than they did in the past.

I wish I knew the answer as to how to reverse this trend, but I do know that just demanding higher pay won't do it. My paycheck is about 1/2 of what is was at my former carrier. If I don't like it, there are 12,000 applicants who are willing to replace me tomorrow.

The real truth is that 60 comes so fast, and you wonder where all the time went. All of these issues become moot at 60 + 1 hour.

It's always strange to me to see someone in financial trouble, and they are blaming the company that they work for. Maybe they should look in a mirror for the real problem.

Sorry for rambling on and getting a little off topic,. I've had two cups of coffee this morning. This reply was not directed at Redmeat, but rather just a few related thoughts.

DW

 

[Smoking Man]

DW

Is on to something. Oil a 60/70 BBL is not good for anyone, and I doubt that anyone planned for it. The ability to change rapidly for the short term would be key to survival for any airline. How does the old joke go something like, you and your buddies are out camping and all of the sudden a bear is comming after you all. You may not be able to out run the bear, but you don't have to do that you just have to be faster that you slowest buddy.

People give us crap about cleaning the airplanes, the pay rates on the 190, etc. Well it looks as if the price of fuel is the bear, and I can name a few that I am pretty sure we can out run.

 

[Dogwood]

DW

Is on to something. Oil a 60/70 BBL is not good for anyone, and I doubt that anyone planned for it. The ability to change rapidly for the short term would be key to survival for any airline. How does the old joke go something like, you and your buddies are out camping and all of the sudden a bear is comming after you all. You may not be able to out run the bear, but you don't have to do that you just have to be faster that you slowest buddy.

People give us crap about cleaning the airplanes, the pay rates on the 190, etc. Well it looks as if the price of fuel is the bear, and I can name a few that I am pretty sure we can out run.

Smok'n,

Perfect analogy. I wonder who the slowest runner is. I also wonder who is still in the tent making a smore's bar. Not sure what I meant by that, but it sounded good.

DW

 

[Falconjet]

Run, run, as fast as you can, you can't catch me, I'm on a race to the bottom!

Oh, I know that is not how it is supposed to go, but I wouldn't be on this board bragging that my company can outrace everyone else's to the bottom of the wage chain.

That doesn't sound as good, does it?

FJ

 

[Dizel8]

Considering that, at present, jetblue is not at the bottom, you rhetoric holds little value. Sadly, several air carriers pay their pilots less.

We can go round and round on this issue, without ever getting anywhere. I doubt anyone do not feel they deserve more for the job they do and that goes for all jobs, not just airline employees. Perhaps one day the cycle will turn, but at this point, I am doubtful it ever will.

Now, depending on which airline we work for, we can point fingers at someone else, but it helps little and is somewhat pointless. The wages at X are too low, well, Y is competing with X and selling tickets below cost, Z is in bankruptcy and shedding debt, Q got a cheap loan from the NTSB etc.

Like I said, perhaps things will turn around, but it does look bleak for the near future in the Pax airline biz.

 

[crashpad]

He's just nervous because Jet Blue can deliver the same box FedEx can for a lot less, and without 'absolutely, positively destroying it overnight'.

 

[Air Biscuit]

Jet Blue is getting desperate. Trying to go into a fortress hub like EWR and compete with CAL on Florida routes is a dumb move. They don't stand a chance. I give Jet Blue 5 more years max and they'll be done. Peoples Express were the industry darlings in the 80's, where are they now? Although they didn't have to don blue gloves and clean the airplane in between turns, so who knows maybe that will save them.

 

[Dizel8]

Yes, they are doomed, doomed I tell ya

How many ASMs are going into EWR percentage wise, maybe you should figure that one out before you decide it is all over? Of course, the LGB flying was all over when AA decided to fly to JFK from there, the Florida flying was all over when Song went there. Or maybe it will be over when jetblue pays for the airplanes or perhaps the MX, or was it fuel. I get so confused, but anyway, it is all over

 

[Falconjet]

Pad: I only call them the way I see them, and the way I read those two posts by Dogwood and Smoking Man, who I presume are jetBlue pilots, it sure sounds like they are agreeing that they are ready to win the race to the bottom of the wage scale so they can outlast everyone else as the price of oil goes through the roof.

Maybe they don't work for jetBlue, maybe that wasn't their intent, but that is how it sounded to me, and I'm just saying that I wouldn't be boasting about winning such a race on this board.

I wish nothing but the best to my buds at jetBlue, as I have said several times before.

By the way, that was absolutely, positively pretty funny.

FJ

 

[Longhorn]

Biscut,

First, People Express and Jetblue are two different animals. Two different route structures and two completely different fleets doing routes. Our management and peoples thinking is not even in the same ball park or sport all together. Believe it or not, Dave and David actually know what they are doing. We might not agree with everything but 99% back our management and have faith in what they are doing. Yes, there are some issues like the 190 pay etc... but for the most part we have faith. We are not a bunch of pilots who don’t know the industry. We have furloughed pilots from just about every legacy out there and they have seen companies like people express come and go. If we were really headed down the same road as People Express dont you think that our pilots that have seen this before would be up in arms? They have seen the legacy carriers put themselves in the position that they are in today. We do bring things up to our management when there is a concern and they listen to us. They don’t always make a change overnight but they do address the problems in time. As for EWR. We are in there because of customers begged us to go there. We were getting en excess of 1000 letters per day from folk on the other side of the river asking us to fly in there so they did not have to come to NY. So we did. Yes, its a competitive place due to it being Continentals hub but we did not go in trying to take flying from them as the priority, we went there because our customers asked us to. Now, if some CO customers make the switch then that’s nothing more than choice on their part.

 

[IB6 UB9]

Jet Blue is getting desperate. Trying to go into a fortress hub like EWR and compete with CAL on Florida routes is a dumb move. They don't stand a chance. I give Jet Blue 5 more years max and they'll be done. Peoples Express were the industry darlings in the 80's, where are they now? Although they didn't have to don blue gloves and clean the airplane in between turns, so who knows maybe that will save them.

It's over. Mind if I PM you a resume?...I have some E-120 time and just like the last time I was furloughed, I want to get a jump on the others here for when the inevitable happens. Can't wait to jerk the gear for you.

 

[wndshr]

Jet Blue is getting desperate. Trying to go into a fortress hub like EWR and compete with CAL on Florida routes is a dumb move. They don't stand a chance. I give Jet Blue 5 more years max and they'll be done. Peoples Express were the industry darlings in the 80's, where are they now? Although they didn't have to don blue gloves and clean the airplane in between turns, so who knows maybe that will save them.

coming from an 8K hour commuter pilot....i'd be pissed about not moving on too!

anyway, i would like to do a survey of pilots who got into this profession to make money? you say "no" i love to fly....whatever!

this job will not make you rich...if you do not use the 15 days off a month to really "make" money...you are wasting the most valuable asset of being a pilot. read folks....15 days off is a PART TIME JOB...do something else if you want more money...the time is over for the 300K a year captain job...we will never see it again! sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you must not be dinosaurs and move on or adapt!@

 

[zkmayo]

Oh come on, there's nothing to worry about.

We dont pay for fuel. We dont pay for our airplanes. Havent you heard??? Geez...

I understand JBLU has bought some type of emergency insurance fuel hedging that holds us at $53-55 fuel if "an event" occurs that would drive oil to an astronomical level. This was from the CFO on the 2nd quarter earnings webcast.

Airbiscuit--Along with all those letters from NJ customers, I cant tell you how many cars Ive seen with NJ plates Ive seen dropping people off in front of Terminal 6 at JFK. That's right they are driving past EWR and your ERJ today, before JBLU even starts service there, and coming to JFK. Did you know there even willing to pay a $5 toll for the bridge on the way back and burn $3 fuel in their car?

The problem with the industry is not pilot pay. Yes, we'd all like to make more. The fundamental problem is that revenues are not exceeding costs. Hopefully the latest rounds of ticket price increases will stick and continue.

 

[sayagain?]

It's actually $9.00 to go back over the V Bridge. Done it too many times.


sayagain?

 

[Smoking Man]

Pad: I only call them the way I see them, and the way I read those two posts by Dogwood and Smoking Man, who I presume are jetBlue pilots, it sure sounds like they are agreeing that they are ready to win the race to the bottom of the wage scale so they can outlast everyone else as the price of oil goes through the roof.

Maybe they don't work for jetBlue, maybe that wasn't their intent, but that is how it sounded to me, and I'm just saying that I wouldn't be boasting about winning such a race on this board.

I wish nothing but the best to my buds at jetBlue, as I have said several times before.

By the way, that was absolutely, positively pretty funny.

FJ

Hmmmm.... Your post would indicate that I was talking about cutting our wages and racing to the bottem. Their has not been a wage cut at jetBlue, and the CHQ pay scale for the 190 is lower than ours. The origional question in the thread was
"Just wondering if Jet Blue has a business plan that will carry them through if
a. Oil stays above 60$/Barrell
and
b. Lease payments increase as they are rumored to in three years."

I was attempting to address the fact that in this captial intensive environment where other airlines losses are in the billions and bankruptcies have and will continue to happen our current cost structure allows us an advantage in a situation that others wish they had. Never did I talk about us cutting our cost and race to the bottem.