Jet Blue in Three Years

mannyaplus11

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Just wondering if Jet Blue has a business plan that will carry them through if
a. Oil stays above 60$/Barrell
and
b. Lease payments increase as they are rumored to in three years.
 

B6Driver

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We just wake up everyday with our fingers crossed.
I would love to know where and how these rumors start.
 

klhoard

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I think I'd be more worried about having to make payments on Duane Woerth's Masserati after 51% of the pilots on JB's seniority list are still flying the E-190 after three years. . .
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Dizel8

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Huh?
Maserati?? Did he have to downgrade from the Bentley?
 

Diesel-9

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If there is any repeat of past cycles, as the majors get their costs in line as they are doing now, they willl be very competitive and thrive and the smaller carriers will feel the competition (crying predatory pricing). Haven't there been 50+ new carriers start up and disolve since deregulation? Mostly during one of these cycles. High oil will hurt them more as the majors have the large revenues to handle it at the same time the others are getting tired and finally asking to be paid for the all the hours and days they work for below par wages making someone else rich.
 
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Redmeat

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Diesel-9 said:
If there is any repeat of past cycles, as the majors get their costs in line as they are doing now, they willl be very competitive and thrive and the smaller carriers will feel the competition (crying predatory pricing). Haven't there been 50+ new carriers start up and disolve since deregulation? Mostly during one of these cycles. High oil will hurt them more as the majors have the large revenues to handle it at the same time the others are getting tired and finally asking to be paid for the all the hours and days they work for below par wages making someone else rich.
No offense but either you are being sarcastic, or naively optimistic (about the legacy's).
 
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klhoard

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Dizel8 said:
Maserati?? Did he have to downgrade from the Bentley?
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Haven't you heard? Times are tough. . .
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Captain Overs

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Boyd seems to think that even if the legacy carriers get their costs in line with the "LLC's" that that will not solve their problems.
 

FlyBoeingJets

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The airline biz in 3 Years.....

JetBlue has been spending big. They're debt is now at $2 Billion. About the same as SWA's. They will continue to grow debt. That would be a problem but their biggest competitors now have $10-14+ Billion in debt or will struggle with the costs of BK. The USAir/America West merger looks interesting. I think USAir is getting permission to shed debt, AGAIN, as they look to emerge from BK. This is against popular opinion, but I think, this time, USAir will start taking a bite out of East Coast competition.

UAL will soon exit BK as a legacy LCC. I figure in 6 months. (Don't quote me on that, I have been wrong on my previous 6 guesses on their demise or emergence)

NWA is a good 1 1/2 to 2 years from becoming a legacy LCC, but I am optimistic (pessimistic?) they will pull it off. Perhaps after a BK.

Look for the debt issue to drive the boat, IMHO. JetBlue will have rock bottom employee costs but (slightly?) rising debt and mx costs. SWA will have high employee costs, but little debt and a good economy of scale with fewer employees per aircraft.

The legacies, or whoever else stays in the game, have to find an advantage somewhere. Low debt, low pay, BK and broken contracts, profitable international routes or some other specialty.
 

Deli Guy

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Hey Mannyaplus11!!
I know that call sign anywhere!!! I am going to try and pm you.
Your AWACS buddy
deli guy
 

Dogwood

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mannyaplus11 said:
Just wondering if Jet Blue has a business plan that will carry them through if
a. Oil stays above 60$/Barrell
and
b. Lease payments increase as they are rumored to in three years.
Manny,

I doubt $60+ was in any airline's biz plan 5 years ago.

Heck, 10 years ago who even heard of an RJ.

At some point the fares have to rise. If customers want to ride in a machine that burns fuel, they must be willing to pay for said fuel.

DW
 

Redmeat

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Dogwood said:
Manny,

I doubt $60+ was in any airline's biz plan 5 years ago.

Heck, 10 years ago who even heard of an RJ.

At some point the fares have to rise. If customers want to ride in a machine that burns fuel, they must be willing to pay for said fuel.

DW
Exactly right, pay for said fuel. But not pay for said crew.
 

Dogwood

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Redmeat said:
Exactly right, pay for said fuel. But not pay for said crew.
Redmeat, your point is exactly right but it's all supply and demand. The ugly truth is that refined oil is less plentiful than pilots these days.

What we need is a good old "pilot shortage"? Maybe even a shortage of schools to refine the pilots? I can assure you then, that the pay rates would go up.

When I graduated from Embry-Ridde almost 25 years ago, the speaker told us that a shortage was just around the corner. I'm still waiting.

The RJs have killed our profession, financially. In some cases, a kid can graduate from college and hop right into the cockpit of an ERJ-145 and make $25,000 with no bills to pay other than college loans. 5 years later, that kid is still unmarried with no children and now is competitive for the major positions. He can still work for less, and is willing to do so.

We've gone thru a transition and that's where we are now. The medical profession is in the same boat. They are controlled by the insurance companies, and many docs make far less than they did in the past.

I wish I knew the answer as to how to reverse this trend, but I do know that just demanding higher pay won't do it. My paycheck is about 1/2 of what is was at my former carrier. If I don't like it, there are 12,000 applicants who are willing to replace me tomorrow.

The real truth is that 60 comes so fast, and you wonder where all the time went. All of these issues become moot at 60 + 1 hour.

It's always strange to me to see someone in financial trouble, and they are blaming the company that they work for. Maybe they should look in a mirror for the real problem.

Sorry for rambling on and getting a little off topic,. I've had two cups of coffee this morning. This reply was not directed at Redmeat, but rather just a few related thoughts.

DW
 

Smoking Man

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DW

Is on to something. Oil a 60/70 BBL is not good for anyone, and I doubt that anyone planned for it. The ability to change rapidly for the short term would be key to survival for any airline. How does the old joke go something like, you and your buddies are out camping and all of the sudden a bear is comming after you all. You may not be able to out run the bear, but you don't have to do that you just have to be faster that you slowest buddy.

People give us crap about cleaning the airplanes, the pay rates on the 190, etc. Well it looks as if the price of fuel is the bear, and I can name a few that I am pretty sure we can out run.

;)
 

Dogwood

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Smoking Man said:
DW

Is on to something. Oil a 60/70 BBL is not good for anyone, and I doubt that anyone planned for it. The ability to change rapidly for the short term would be key to survival for any airline. How does the old joke go something like, you and your buddies are out camping and all of the sudden a bear is comming after you all. You may not be able to out run the bear, but you don't have to do that you just have to be faster that you slowest buddy.

People give us crap about cleaning the airplanes, the pay rates on the 190, etc. Well it looks as if the price of fuel is the bear, and I can name a few that I am pretty sure we can out run.

;)
Smok'n,

Perfect analogy. I wonder who the slowest runner is. I also wonder who is still in the tent making a smore's bar. Not sure what I meant by that, but it sounded good.

DW
 

Falconjet

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Run, run, as fast as you can, you can't catch me, I'm on a race to the bottom!

Oh, I know that is not how it is supposed to go, but I wouldn't be on this board bragging that my company can outrace everyone else's to the bottom of the wage chain.

That doesn't sound as good, does it?

FJ
 

Dizel8

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Huh?
Considering that, at present, jetblue is not at the bottom, you rhetoric holds little value. Sadly, several air carriers pay their pilots less.

We can go round and round on this issue, without ever getting anywhere. I doubt anyone do not feel they deserve more for the job they do and that goes for all jobs, not just airline employees. Perhaps one day the cycle will turn, but at this point, I am doubtful it ever will.

Now, depending on which airline we work for, we can point fingers at someone else, but it helps little and is somewhat pointless. The wages at X are too low, well, Y is competing with X and selling tickets below cost, Z is in bankruptcy and shedding debt, Q got a cheap loan from the NTSB etc.

Like I said, perhaps things will turn around, but it does look bleak for the near future in the Pax airline biz.
 

crashpad

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He's just nervous because Jet Blue can deliver the same box FedEx can for a lot less, and without 'absolutely, positively destroying it overnight'.
 

Air Biscuit

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Jet Blue is getting desperate. Trying to go into a fortress hub like EWR and compete with CAL on Florida routes is a dumb move. They don't stand a chance. I give Jet Blue 5 more years max and they'll be done. Peoples Express were the industry darlings in the 80's, where are they now? Although they didn't have to don blue gloves and clean the airplane in between turns, so who knows maybe that will save them.
 

Dizel8

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Huh?
Yes, they are doomed, doomed I tell ya:)

How many ASMs are going into EWR percentage wise, maybe you should figure that one out before you decide it is all over? Of course, the LGB flying was all over when AA decided to fly to JFK from there, the Florida flying was all over when Song went there. Or maybe it will be over when jetblue pays for the airplanes or perhaps the MX, or was it fuel. I get so confused, but anyway, it is all over:)
 
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