Jet Blue A320 upgrade - I'm Curious

[B6Driver]

Never is a very long time.
You look like a smart guy in your picture, well, maybe not.
Never listen to rumors

 

[Charlie Brown]

Mr Hat,
I think to answer your question would require a crystal ball. I know you are not trying to start a flame war but I bet the question will.

I think it's safe to say that 3-4 year upgrades in the 320 are a thing of the past. It all depends on how many accept recall. That should get figured out really quickly since all furloughees are at crunch time to have to make a decision regarding accepting the recall, or resigning. $hit or get off the pot, so to speak.

Theoretically, the amount of people on the list today equals the amount of total Bus captains that will be required when all deliveries are taken. At least that is how I understand it. That theory though, doesn't take retirements (not many), people electing to stay FOs or senior on the 190, and attrition. So it is safe to say, in my opinion, upgrade to the Bus will take a lot longer than in the past, however it will be attainable at some point in the future. My guess is at least twice what it is now.

Hope that answers your question.

 

[RogerMOSA]

Theoretically, the amount of people on the list today equals the amount of total Bus captains that will be required when all deliveries are taken. At least that is how I understand it. That theory though, doesn't take retirements (not many), people electing to stay FOs or senior on the 190, and attrition. So it is safe to say, in my opinion, upgrade to the Bus will take a lot longer than in the past, however it will be attainable at some point in the future. My guess is at least twice what it is now.
.

Don't forget to factor in the number of A320s that will be sold. I have a feeling that in JB's final tally, we will be nowhere close to 200 A320s.

RM

 

[Truckdriver]

Mr. Hat,

We have 94 320's now. We could have 231 by 2016 if they get all the firm orders and options and don't sell anymore. Figuring 7 Captains per airplane, they would need about 1600. Right now we have just under 1700 on the list. That is where people come up with that comment. We will also have around 200 190's in 2016. That would be about 1400 190 Captains. So we would need around 3000 Captains and about the same number of FO's. That would put a guy hired right now in the top 1/3 of the seniority list. I'm not sure you can get to the top 1/3 of any list at another carrier in 9 years. This is of course figuring no retirements and no attrition. We do have guys retiring although we don't know the exact number. We also have lots of UAL, UAIR, and NWA guys who are now accepting recall since they can no longer bypass. I've moved up about 10 per month the last three months. Factor those into the deal, and I think a guy hired right now won't regret it come 2016. Probably be a 320 lineholder or a 190 CA getting 19 days off. However, 2016 is lots of years away and I would hesitate to forecast any farther than a year in todays environment.

 

[Truckdriver]

Don't forget to factor in the number of A320s that will be sold. I have a feeling that in JB's final tally, we will be nowhere close to 200 A320s.

RM

Your are probably correct. We have 94 now with firm orders for 87 more which I have heard Airbus won't change to options. We then have options for another 50 by 2016. The current tally is 213 by 2016. I think they will sell a couple more this year. If 2007 is a good year, I doubt they will sell more in 2008. Hopefully the number will by north of 200 in the next 10 years. Don't forget about the 330 order that we will be placing in 2010 to charge into South America!

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Your are probably correct. We have 94 now with firm orders for 87 more which I have heard Airbus won't change to options. We then have options for another 50 by 2016. The current tally is 213 by 2016. I think they will sell a couple more this year. If 2007 is a good year, I doubt they will sell more in 2008. Hopefully the number will by north of 200 in the next 10 years. Don't forget about the 330 order that we will be placing in 2010 to charge into South America!

330 order? Got crack?

 

[IB6 UB9]

Don't forget about the 330 order that we will be placing in 2010 to charge into South America!

I heard the same...

 

[Bavarian Chef]

That's a common "flame bait" or "taunt" that guys throw around.
They act like its a shock or something.

Their logic is that with only the approx 200 or so A320's on the firm order now that with the 1600 pilots hired so far, those guys/gals will be the A320 Captain's for the future.

uhhh...

Duh?!

Hopefully, IF the company is profitable it will continue to grow with more A320 orders, albeit at a marginally slower and slower percentage of growth.

It's not flame bait! We have our own pilots saying that. But yes, as someone already said, never is a long, long time. What's the most junior CA at airways again? 1989? THAT seems like never.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

Your are probably correct. We have 94 now with firm orders for 87 more which I have heard Airbus won't change to options. We then have options for another 50 by 2016. The current tally is 213 by 2016. I think they will sell a couple more this year. If 2007 is a good year, I doubt they will sell more in 2008. Hopefully the number will by north of 200 in the next 10 years. Don't forget about the 330 order that we will be placing in 2010 to charge into South America!

Dude aren't you new? This enthusiasm for 2018 is kinda funny.

 

[Mr Hat]

Easy guys. I know you guys take a lot of crap around here but I like Jetblue. I think you have a hell of a product and wish you only the best. I was asking because I wanted to know how legit the rumor was. Of course things can change and hopefully they will but notice that I said "the current fleet plan"....IE assuming no change.

Sounds to me like the list will probably stagnate sometime in the near future or at least slow down. If Jetblue starts picking up the slack for a failed Virgin America things will most certainly change in a big way.....(Big assumption on my part but considering Jetblue was supposed to be Virgin America in the first place, I can see it happening)
Good luck!