Its Not All Rosey At Delta.... From the USA Today

[General Lee]

Yet another reason our Creditor Committee wouldn't want this deal: A merger would cause another 12-18 month delay in coming out of BK, to re-negotiate contracts with employees, vendors, etc. That would mean another 12-18 months for the creditors to see any money. Another long delay.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[joevollers]

My reason for wanting this is simple... I want your payscale.imp: or better.. not getting it now... Either way though I believe this bid will help us AWA/US pilots in our negotiations...Parker can't even dream of saying cost neutral again

 

[joevollers]

You all are just regurgitating what anaylsts say at best; and at worst you give the silliest of prognostications, (i.e. Fleet compatibility would make this deal a no go) ------just think of how stupid that is to say, like it would suddenly cost more to run the fleets at one carrier than it would at two separate ones.

This deal may work.. or it may not. We pilots will like it, or not.. And have no better chance of stopping it, or enabling it, than say, we do of saving pensions...

I would love to see an original thought come through with all the forecasting that has gone on on this site. But it seems merely that I'm listening to the radio guy who watched the wx channel before he came into work.

 

[Hoke]

You think it will go through in some shape or form? Huh? It either does or doesn't, and regardless of what Parker is telling you, it doesn't look good at this point. Most of the large creditors on the CC want DL to come out as a single carrier, and that is why those bondholders (30% of the voting) are getting nervous. They want a "say", primarily because the others aren't letting them speak at all.


Gary Kelly believes this deal will probably go through, so it's going to go through, end of subject.

No, but seriously, I'm betting he's right on the money and that's not just because I work for him.

 

[General Lee]

You think it will go through in some shape or form? Huh? It either does or doesn't, and regardless of what Parker is telling you, it doesn't look good at this point. Most of the large creditors on the CC want DL to come out as a single carrier, and that is why those bondholders (30% of the voting) are getting nervous. They want a "say", primarily because the others aren't letting them speak at all.


Gary Kelly believes this deal will probably go through, so it's going to go through, end of subject.

No, but seriously, I'm betting he's right on the money and that's not just because I work for him.

GK WANTS it to go through. He would LOVE to get gates and slots, and he has no clue who is on the committee that makes the actual decision. If he did know, he would not have made those comments. (well, he did say when we started BK that he would buy assets if we liquidated) I think Jim Oberstar knows a lot more that GK, since he also will decide (he said "nonsense" on CNBC). But hey, if you want to only believe GK, go right ahead. He also thought the Wright ammendment would be immediately abolished....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[NYRANGERS]

This deal may work.. or it may not. We pilots will like it, or not.. And have no better chance of stopping it, or enabling it, than say, we do of saving pensions...

.

The Delta pilots are one of the biggest unsecured creditors with a 2.1
billion dollar claim. I would say we have some say in this deal. You guys would too if you came out against the deal.

If you want your pay to go up.....negotiate a better contract...if DP can raise billions of dollars for a buyout, he can give you guys a raise. It is sad that the only reason you want this merger to go through is so you can get a raise. However, the way us air guys treated their furloughed pilots, it doesn't surprise me (short lived COBRA, no travel benefits, no longevity...etc..)

 

[puddlejumper101]

GK WANTS it to go through. He would LOVE to get gates and slots, and he has no clue who is on the committee that makes the actual decision. If he did know, he would not have made those comments. (well, he did say when we started BK that he would buy assets if we liquidated) I think Jim Oberstar knows a lot more that GK, since he also will decide (he said "nonsense" on CNBC). But hey, if you want to only believe GK, go right ahead. He also thought the Wright ammendment would be immediately abolished....


Bye Bye--General Lee

Hmm...General...do you actually believe that Gary Kelly or any other CEO of a major carrier has no idea who is on the committee? Of course he knows...this is not private info and there are only a handful of CEOs in the industry. I would think a CEO of a major carrier has way more inside info and leverage on what goes on than some TV analyst that works in CNBC reguardless of his title. You are trying desperately to hold on to anything you can saying this deal is not happening. Let's face it General there are people out there that have way more info and leverage on this decision than you or me. We are just pawns...If Mesa came in and wanted to do this...and did it right there is nothing any of us could do about it. In due time we will learn what the future holds...but none of us have all the facts. I do know this...if this was such a bad deal or if it had no chance it would not be getting the publicity and face time it has received by the media, wall street insiders, and other CEOs in the industry.

 

[General Lee]

Hmm...General...do you actually believe that Gary Kelly or any other CEO of a major carrier has no idea who is on the committee? Of course he knows...this is not private info and there are only a handful of CEOs in the industry. I would think a CEO of a major carrier has way more inside info and leverage on what goes on than some TV analyst that works in CNBC reguardless of his title. You are trying desperately to hold on to anything you can saying this deal is not happening. Let's face it General there are people out there that have way more info and leverage on this decision than you or me. We are just pawns...If Mesa came in and wanted to do this...and did it right there is nothing any of us could do about it. In due time we will learn what the future holds...but none of us have all the facts. I do know this...if this was such a bad deal or if it had no chance it would not be getting the publicity and face time it has received by the media, wall street insiders, and other CEOs in the industry.

Sure, I bet they all know. But, GK also said the same thing (we would like slots and gates) when some people thought we might liquidate. And, you talk about the guy I mention who talked to CNBC. Do you know who Jim Oberstar is? You don't, do you? He is a Congressman from MN who is incharge (or Chairman) of the Transportation Sub-committee, who will probably rule on this merger. He came out stating the USAir offer was "nonsense." Does he not know what is going on? He doesn't? Are you kinding me? And, as much publicity or face time? There was a lot on the day it was announced, and then small articles here and there in the WSJ, with the last one talking about a splinter group of creditors who want a "say" in the talks, primarily because the KNOW the largest creditors (Dalpa, Boeing, Coke, Pratt, Fidelity, etc) are leaning with DL. Sure they want a "say", because they aren't being heard right now. GK is just looking for opportunities, plain and simple.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Puddlejumper101,

So, if Oberstar said "Nonsense" in relation to the possible tie up of US and DL just recently on CNBC (Nov 15th, the day it was announced), then his views from the 2001 attempted merger between USAir and United probably still hold true. Here was his opinion then (when he wasn't Chairman on the Committee, like he will be soon)

Oberstar, Slaughter to Release GAO Study United-US Airways Merger
Analysis shows merger would reduce competition in 290 markets and spur further airline consolidation.

WASHINGTON—The proposed merger between United Airlines and US Airways will reduce airline choices for millions of air travelers and is likely to push other carriers to consolidate in order to compete with the merged airline, a new study by the General Accounting Office shows.


Rep. James L. Oberstar (D-Minn.) and Rep. Louise M. Slaughter (D-N.Y.) are to release the GAO report, "Aviation Competition: Issues Related to the Proposed United Airlines-US Airways Merger"(GAO-01-212), today at a Capitol Hill news conference. Oberstar is the Ranking Democratic Member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Slaughter, represents Rochester, N.Y., a market that already has some of the highest airfares in the country. Rochester stands to be heavily affected by the merger.

“I have been deeply concerned about the anti-competitive effects of the proposed merger of United Airlines and US Airways, and the accompanying proposed transfer of slots to a new airline, DC Air,” Oberstar said. “I believe that, if the proposed merger were to be approved, the remaining large airlines would feel compelled to merge to retain their shares of the overall market. We would soon be reduced to an industry of three major competitors, resulting in a devastating loss of competition for consumers.”

“This report underscores what I have said all along–that this proposed merger would be the beginning of the end of the aviation industry as we know it,” said Congresswoman Slaughter. “If the merger goes forward, other mergers would follow. Communities would be at the mercy of three carriers, dominating the entire United States. Deregulation was never intended to facilitate the creation of de facto monopolies controlling which communities live or die depending on their access to air service.”

Among the study’s findings:

· After a merger, the New United would dominate 1,156 of the 5,000 most heavily traveled markets, affecting 61.1 million passengers. New United’s market dominance would be 36 percent larger than that of the next carrier, Delta Airlines.
· The merged airline would carry 33 percent more passengers than Delta; 89 percent more than American; and 89 percent more than Southwest, and New United would carry nearly the same number of passengers as Northwest, Continental, TWA and America West combined.
· Based on interviews with industry analysts and officials from several airlines, GAO concluded that if the merger were approved, the “new United would so alter the existing balance in the domestic market that, for the other major U.S. airlines to compete successfully, they would have little choice but to consolidate as well.”
· The merger of United and US Airways would reduce or eliminate competition for almost 16 million passengers in 290 of the most heavily traveled aviation markets. In 43 of those 290 markets, the merger would reduce the number of competitors from 2 to 1, affecting 4.1 million passengers.
· GAO compared the proposed United-US Airways merger to the proposed alliance and stock acquisition between Northwest and Continental, which DOJ found to violate anti-trust laws. GAO’s findings indicate that the loss of competition from a United-US Airways merger would be much greater than from a Northwest-Continental relationship.

“Fewer choices, higher fares and a deterioration in service is not what Congress contemplated in 1978 when it deregulated the airline industry. Yet, that is the likely result if a United-US Airways merger is approved by the Department of Justice,” Oberstar said. “I strongly urge the DOJ to take heed of the GAO’s analysis of the merger’s impact on competition and consumers, and reject this proposed merger.”




Remember, he represents MN, and that would mean NWA too. IF they want to remain a single carrier, I bet he will listen to his constituents too.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[puddlejumper101]

as with anything else I am sure not everyone is always in agreement with everything that goes on. Oberstar might have a say...but he is one of many. The point is if this story is getting this much attention by more than just the media then there is a lot more going on that we don't know about. Something will happen...too many hands in the pot right now...that USAir/UAL deal was all before 9/11. Different game, different rules...it might not be USAir...but someone in the next few months will be the new owners of DAL...Parker is doing all he can and in essence what he will end up doing is opening the door, if for nothing else, so someone else can come in. Someone will entice those creditors...sad but true.