Is the Southwest pay/contract sustainable at current market?

[GhettoBeechjet]

Both your reasoning and your math don't make any sense. Care to elaborate?

Sure thing: We are losing 88 717s to DL. We have 86 deliveries coming form Boeing which is a net loss of 2 airframes. The real question becomes how many classics stay on property. I believe that they will only keep the 100 classics that they are retrofitting with the evolve interior which is a loss of 68 additional airframes. My opinion is based on the fact that we already have too much ASM capacity in the system which is why the pilots on the AAI side of the partition are suffering such a dirth of flying. In addition a 737 produces more ASMs per departure than a 717. Add into that a crappy economy, high fuel prices and demand will shrink. With a loss of 70 airframes that equates to 700 extra pilots. According to Lear Flt Ops has said even with retirements we would be 400 or so pilots overstaffed with a flat fleet because of the increased productivity on the WN side of the partition. Add the two and you get 1100 too many pilots.

 

[Lear70]

Sure thing: We are losing 88 717s to DL. We have 86 deliveries coming form Boeing which is a net loss of 2 airframes. The real question becomes how many classics stay on property. I believe that they will only keep the 100 classics that they are retrofitting with the evolve interior which is a loss of 68 additional airframes. My opinion is based on the fact that we already have too much ASM capacity in the system which is why the pilots on the AAI side of the partition are suffering such a dirth of flying. In addition a 737 produces more ASMs per departure than a 717. Add into that a crappy economy, high fuel prices and demand will shrink. With a loss of 70 airframes that equates to 700 extra pilots. According to Lear Flt Ops has said even with retirements we would be 400 or so pilots overstaffed with a flat fleet because of the increased productivity on the WN side of the partition. Add the two and you get 1100 too many pilots.

The real question is not IF, but "WHEN" the Classics go away.

My bet is that they don't start going away until 1st quarter 2015 and coincide with the deferred deliveries starting to come on property, pretty close to 1 for 1. If that happens, no serious over-staffing to worry about - they can absorb 5% overstaffing just by flattening line values on the SWA side and covering most open time with reserves (which they've already told us is coming).

If they go away BEFORE that, then yes, we have a problem.

As for the 400 overstaffing, that is FLT OPS forecast on 1/1/15 taking into account attrition between now and then for age 65 (2013 and 2014), or at least that's the number they're throwing out there.

Lear,
Has something changed? Is everyone rebidding or something? I think your talking about guys who bid 73 back to the dark ages FO.

No, I was responding to you talking about having the opportunity to go fly the round dials soon and "go back to 1975..." That bid opens on Thursday and yes, WP, that's for the January 5th class date at SWA. 8 MCO 737 crews who bid 737 F/O at SWA plus some 8 MKE peeps I think, don't have the table in front of me.

As far as I know, there's not going to be a re-bid, but then again I haven't heard what (if anything) we gave up in order to get the "schedule improvements" the new NC was "able" to obtain. I say that TIC simply because the changes don't really affect many of us - most of us already have 15 days off or more, and some of the other changes help scheduling just as much as us.

 

[scoreboardII]

I'm not seeing the classic go away until the MAX shows up in 2018-20. It was as Ghetto said pre-Boeing fix of the classics, but now that Boeing has fixed or is fixing them at cost to them, those things will fly till some other event occurs such has extremely hi fuel costs. Classics are cool, sort of like your grandpa's old 50's pickup truck.

 

[Tripower455]

Classics are cool, sort of like your grandpa's old 50's pickup truck.

Classics may be fine pieces of aviation memoribilia, but cool, they are not.....

Now, the -800 is a cool airplane! 114F on the ramp in LAS, and the FA's tell you they're freezing in the cabin!

Oh, and the damn ATs never work on the classics either....

 

[General Lee]

Gen, you've posted several times how having a single fleet type is SOO detrimental to a career. You somehow seem to imply that Delta is sooo much better because of all the different fleet types which causes soo much more pilot hiring. I see a lot of training cycles but aside from that it's all the same isn't it. A 747 CA at Delta retires...one pilot is hired as DC9-FO->737FO->767FO->777FO->747FO->DC9CA->737CA->767CA->777CA->747CA.

737CA retires at SWA new hire 737FO->737CA.

At the end of the day, you still have only one new Captain and one new hire First Officer under either scenario. What am I missing?

Each step up is a pay raise because not every position pays the same. So, a senior DC9 FO can bid to A330 FO, and get a huge raise. So many combos, so much variety. Let's look at actual numbers of projected retirements too. In the next few years, up to 10 years, DL is looking at huge retirement numbers. Some years have more than 700 pilots reaching age 65. That means incredible upward movement. The same goes for the other legacies. As far as SWA goes, I think I read about 150 a year or so would be it through this decade. I'm not making fun of that, rather stating what I read. What will that mean for the junior guys? With the younger AT group coming in, how will that affect future upgrades? These are things junior SWA pilots will be looking at when the legacies start hiring in big numbers.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

I'm not seeing the classic go away until the MAX shows up in 2018-20. It was as Ghetto said pre-Boeing fix of the classics, but now that Boeing has fixed or is fixing them at cost to them, those things will fly till some other event occurs such has extremely hi fuel costs. Classics are cool, sort of like your grandpa's old 50's pickup truck.

Scoreboard I would like to buy your argurment but if we keep all these airframes we have to have flying for them that meets or exceeds managements profit targets. This would mean a gain in ASMs vs where we are today. We can't make our target ROI and management is now blaming our labor cost. When your costs are too high and your revenue is too low you pull back not expand.

 

[scoreboardII]

or you merge and or buy someone else...

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Getting back the title of the thread the Southwest contracts are sustainable but management isn't satisfied with our results. I know it was posted in another thread but look at this

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/...s-the-advantage-in-southwest-airlines-2.0.ece

Note that this was in the Dallas Moring News which is typically very friendly to SWA. Also note that the above article was posted on the employee website by SWA senior leadership. Management is clearly table setting and will be looking for concessions in the upcoming contracts.

 

[Whataburger]

I heard that we will be handed a 75% paycut just before Christmas, and the doors will be shut two weeks later. Herb and Gary suck at business. They simply got lucky for 40 years, and now their luck has run out.

It was a good ride fellas! Good thing Delta is hiring...

 

[redflyer65]

I'm just hoping the Delta guys will buy us coffee or lunch when they see us in Atlanta. Things are looking pretty dire here at Good Ole' Southwest.


Will the Double Breasted guys help a brother out?

 

[KarmaPolice]

Let me say that NO Delta employee I know personally wishes ill on SWA, or thinks SWA is a bad place to be, or is doomed in any way. This internet tough guy Delta vs SWA stuff is just ridiculous.

 

[HA25]

I'm gonna break $300K this year, and I'm an FO. Think I'm on the low side of FO pay too.

trolling?

300K as an FO? Many Fedex and UPS CAs are barely breaking 300K...

I have a close friend who's a 5th year FO at WN and makes about what a 5th year FO at HAL is making, or about $140K

 

[HA25]

I think she may have been implying that with many more people in training and not out on the line flying, manning will need to be greater than the leaner approach of SWA.

general lee is a SHE? really?

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Wow....just clicked on this mess of a post just to see the flame bait but can't help but laugh when the Herb Turds like Scoreboard immediately turn it into a Delta bashing thread....

It's so effin childish......

 

[FlyinGuy]

Bill, have you read your tag line below your posts?

 

[General Lee]

general lee is a SHE? really?

No, but Jon keeps trying to ask me out. Either he is a SHE, or he had a stint in prison and tried to get the State of California to give him his chance. I think he is still trying for the latter.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[HA25]

No, but Jon keeps trying to ask me out. Either he is a SHE, or he had a stint in prison and tried to get the State of California to give him his chance. I think he is still trying for the latter.


Bye Bye---General Lee

aight, cause for a minute I was about to write off the last 12 years on FI.com and my whole view of everything.

 

[jonjuan]

aight, cause for a minute I was about to write off the last 12 years on FI.com and my whole view of everything.

Don't forget the 16,000 posts! Sixteeeennnn thousaaaand........

 

[HA25]

Don't forget the 16,000 posts! Sixteeeennnn thousaaaand........

amazing for sure. in my 12 years of at times very active posting and 2 years of moderator I have only 3K

 

[General Lee]

Don't forget the 16,000 posts! Sixteeeennnn thousaaaand........

And you have yet to post one with any substance. ANY!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

amazing for sure. in my 12 years of at times very active posting and 2 years of moderator I have only 3K

I must really like to debate and like to respond to questions asked of me. Some people like Jonny really don't like that, and it is obvious he can only name call and not add anything substantive. I mean look, all he can retort is "he's got 16,000 posts." That's how he answers. I've been on here as long as you have, but I obviously respond more and try to add to the debates or discussions. He just can't do that for some reason.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[jonjuan]

And you have yet to post one with any substance. ANY!


Bye Bye---General Lee

Oh I believe this one in THIS thread is full of substance and facts:

I think she may have been implying that with many more people in training and not out on the line flying, manning will need to be greater than the leaner approach of SWA.

NEXT!!!!!!!!

 

[HA25]

I must really like to debate and like to respond to questions asked of me. Some people like Jonny really don't like that, and it is obvious he can only name call and not add anything substantive. I mean look, all he can retort is "he's got 16,000 posts." That's how he answers. I've been on here as long as you have, but I obviously respond more and try to add to the debates or discussions. He just can't do that for some reason.


Bye Bye---General Lee

over the decade plus I've (and you've) been on here, I have never had a problem with you frankly... I find you contribute quite a bit, especially from the DL perspective. At least the vast majority of your 16K posts are airline related, unlike some of the idiots I've had to play with on the "non-aviation" chat forums which I'm beginning to think many of them aren't even ATP's.. much less airline pilots.

 

[IslandDriver]

Back to the original statements regaurding pay... I am a 5 yr FO. I do not work extra....just my line...5 mo this year on reserve...on target to fly 850 hrs....on track to make about $150K....sounds like a lot...but I wonder how the number of flight hours to pay is compared to other carriers. I would work a little more but the reserve lines are pretty restrictive...and I am really too jr in my base to pick up.

ID

 

[madjack]

I truly hope that DL regains the "industry leading contract" mantle...SWA has held that spot for many years and hopefully that fact is helping our fellow pilots at other airlines make gains in their contracts...the fact that we still have a better contract than our legacy competition that is NOW making money hand over fist should not be lost on any NC...

 

[HA25]

I truly hope that DL regains the "industry leading contract" mantle...SWA has held that spot for many years and hopefully that fact is helping our fellow pilots at other airlines make gains in their contracts...the fact that we still have a better contract than our legacy competition that is NOW making money hand over fist should not be lost on any NC...

I agree... While I've never been a fan of WN, and always saw them as that ugly girl at the end of the bar after a long night of drinking (relatively attractive during that past decade when the legacies were on their backs)... Truth be told, the current WN contract is fine for a LCC... but yes, I agree, a Delta, United or American, especially those flying long haul 350+ pax airplanes needs to be paying significantly more .. this is not only critical to the profession and to keeping the WN contract viable for their business model, but it's also long over due in terms of buying power, inflation, and cost of living changes over the past decade.

 

[General Lee]

I agree... While I've never been a fan of WN, and always saw them as that ugly girl at the end of the bar after a long night of drinking (relatively attractive during that past decade when the legacies were on their backs)... Truth be told, the current WN contract is fine for a LCC... but yes, I agree, a Delta, United or American, especially those flying long haul 350+ pax airplanes needs to be paying significantly more .. this is not only critical to the profession and to keeping the WN contract viable for their business model, but it's also long over due in terms of buying power, inflation, and cost of living changes over the past decade.

When you go into BK and the judge allows a 47% pay cut, it is tough to crawl back up. Luckily, the legacies are doing better, and so far one (you know which one) has brought the bar back up, and the others will hopefully follow. Long term stability isn't a part of this industry, but consolidation will take away large competition, helping the others. Bag fees and other ancillary revenue appear to be sticking, which will also give needed revenue to those who use it. (SWA still hasn't embraced the bag fees, even though they haven't stopped it at their subsidiary AT) Even during this downturn in the economy and weakness in other areas around the globe (Europe mainly), the legacies appear to be doing well for the time being. That bodes well for better contracts in the near future, and the next one we can negotiate for will start in 2 1/2 more years. Also, everyone must remember that SWA did get their higher pay rates from DL and other legacies, not the other way around. Before 9-11 and the large DL contract, SWA paid a lot less, and SWA Captains were leaving for UAL. (fact) We are glad though, that SWA has kept their pay where it is at, no doubt, and hopefully they will keep it the same or better in future negotiations coming up here. It is tough when you are at the top, because the only way you can go is straight down. Been there already.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[HA25]

When you go into BK and the judge allows a 47% pay cut, it is tough to crawl back up. Luckily, the legacies are doing better, and so far one (you know which one) has brought the bar back up, and the others will hopefully follow. Long term stability isn't a part of this industry, but consolidation will take away large competition, helping the others. Bag fees and other ancillary revenue appear to be sticking, which will also give needed revenue to those who use it. (SWA still hasn't embraced the bag fees, even though they haven't stopped it at their subsidiary AT) Even during this downturn in the economy and weakness in other areas around the globe (Europe mainly), the legacies appear to be doing well for the time being. That bodes well for better contracts in the near future, and the next one we can negotiate for will start in 2 1/2 more years. Also, everyone must remember that SWA did get their higher pay rates from DL and other legacies, not the other way around. Before 9-11 and the large DL contract, SWA paid a lot less, and SWA Captains were leaving for UAL. (fact) We are glad though, that SWA has kept their pay where it is at, no doubt, and hopefully they will keep it the same or better in future negotiations coming up here. It is tough when you are at the top, because the only way you can go is straight down. Been there already.



Bye Bye---General Lee

true... and as an aside your MEC chairman told our MEC chairman that our post-BK contract was the bar that DALPA used for their contract. So I think we get some credit for accelerating that crawl back in 2010.

 

[Scoot 11]

This thread is exactly why I don't come around here that much any more. Is recess over yet? Or are you guys on the computer when your parents think you're asleep?
Sheesh!

 

[redflyer65]

When you go into BK and the judge allows a 47% pay cut, it is tough to crawl back up. Luckily, the legacies are doing better, and so far one (you know which one) has brought the bar back up, and the others will hopefully follow. Long term stability isn't a part of this industry, but consolidation will take away large competition, helping the others. Bag fees and other ancillary revenue appear to be sticking, which will also give needed revenue to those who use it. (SWA still hasn't embraced the bag fees, even though they haven't stopped it at their subsidiary AT) Even during this downturn in the economy and weakness in other areas around the globe (Europe mainly), the legacies appear to be doing well for the time being. That bodes well for better contracts in the near future, and the next one we can negotiate for will start in 2 1/2 more years. Also, everyone must remember that SWA did get their higher pay rates from DL and other legacies, not the other way around. Before 9-11 and the large DL contract, SWA paid a lot less, and SWA Captains were leaving for UAL. (fact) We are glad though, that SWA has kept their pay where it is at, no doubt, and hopefully they will keep it the same or better in future negotiations coming up here. It is tough when you are at the top, because the only way you can go is straight down. Been there already.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Ahhh. The stink of the Delta bankruptcy. It just never really goes away. It's still in the air.