Interesting ATA article

[FlyBoeingJets]

Flyboeingjets,

I apologize. I can see how my posting two articles with bad news might be seen as rubbing it "in your face." I initially read them and was stunned because I really wasn't aware of the problems.

Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

No need to apologize. In fact, I should be the one apologizing. You caught me at a bad time. I had just read the articles about ATA earlier in the day. I also thought everyone knew about our situation. Added to that the problem is worse than I thought.

I would really hate for the great folks I fly with (who have their whole lives invested in ATA) to lose everything. I know the same is true at USAir, TWA, and UAL.

 

[MDP727]

Mister FlyBoeing, apparently you work for ATA. I do too. Don't role over on our vested interest so easily. Just for everyones sake lets state some unknown facts about are place of employment. There is continuously a state of ambiguity amongst the public, the media, and our fellow pilots.

ATA has been in buisness for 31 years
We have the longest reigning CEO of any airline
We have brand new equipment
We are the only airline to receive the FAA diamond award 2 years in a row
We have the best safety record
We dispatch aircraft to more destinations annually than any US airline
Boeing and GE Capital have more money invested in ATA than any airline
Our CASM is at 6.1% the lowest in the buisness
Two years ago we signed an Alpa contract with the largest pay increase ever awarded to an Alpa carrier putting us within 5-7% if not higher than other carriers including AA
We have the best vacation plan of any major
We have only furloughed pilots once for a brief period due to restructuring
We generated enough revenue to attain major airline status with the smallest fleet and minimal advertising
We are the only carrier to compete with our friends at SWA at a major hub and continue to enplane more passengers than they
Our relationship with our commuter is outstanding unlike the other carriers ie...Delta-Comair
Our working relationship with management is outstanding
We fly with the best bunch of pilots out there, we don't belittle other guys because of who they work for

I can go on and on. I don't toot my horn, I'm just proud of who I work for and with. Nothings forever guys not at AA, UAL, DELTA, and even ATA. It was only a few years ago that DAL was slated for purchase by CAL.
Mr. Lee thanks for pointing out our debt position. Maybe DAL should model some of our buisness plan, Songs long factor hovers around 70%, not a viable figure in todays market. Our aircraft leases were front loaded, unlike other carriers, ie...JB, in anticipation of increasing revenues, nobody expected 9/11. Now they just need to be restructured. We were one of the few carriers approved for the stabilization loan, this wouldn't have happened without a sound buisness plan. Our ballon payments didn't suddenely appear overnight, this was all on the table.
I wish you all the best! I hope all you furloughed guys get back to work soon.

 

[DH106]

MDP727,

Well said. Your post is, by far, the most intelligent briefing in this discussion.

I was recently hired by ATA, after being furloughed for one and one-half years, and I must add one note to your list: ATA has not only treated me better than any other company I've worked for, but I've been amazed at what a great place this is to work at.

As you stated, comparisons to JB's financing arrangements are "apples and oranges." I feel confident that the restructuring of our debt will take-place swiftly and efficiently. Unlike many companies, I feel our leadership will act with trueleadership, to expand and develop this airline futher. This is something I never saw at any other airline I've worked for.

I can't say any more... you've said it all!

 

[General Lee]

MDP727,

Well, I think it is great that you love your airline. I think you guys have some nice new airplanes and a good game plan, but those articles that I posted didn't paint such a rosy picture. When you stated that the Song flights have only a 70% load factor---you must remember that it really isn't high season yet for the Florida flights(when the snow starts falling---the loads will be 100%), and the TV's etc haven't even been installed yet, which will bring passengers back eventually again and again. We also have a frequent flyer program with CO and NW that will give us another edge. I think it is great that you guys have a great relationship with Chicago Express. But, that would turn sour if they got 70 seat RJ's and you started parking your 738's for some reason---like not being able to pay off next years debt. As soon as some of your routes were taken, that love relationship you have would evaporate. You did get a very good contract---even better than AA's---which was impressive. You said you have the best vacation plan. Well, our Capts can sell back their unused vacation (and the INTL guys don't need it--they have 19 days off a month)--and a friend of mine got a check for $68,000--all extra pay due to selling back 180 hrs of vactaion---just for the last year. Not bad. But I do agree, you guys run a good ship over there. I hope it all works out for you. And yes, I hope our furloughs also come back soon. Apparently they might be bringing 9 more 737-200's out of the desert soon, so maybe that will help.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[njcapt]

When you stated that the Song flights have only a 70% load factor---you must remember that it really isn't high season yet for the Florida flights(when the snow starts falling---the loads will be 100%)...

Funny... our Florida flights are running around 85- 95% load factors this summer. What's wrong with the operations at Song? Brand confusion?

 

[TriStar_drvr]

Warning! Warning! Warning!

I have far exceeded the recommended maximum beer allowance for posting on an internet bulletin board!

Read the following at your own risk!

Well, I was going to post a reply to the published articles about ATA's financial situation, but MDP727 in his first post on this board did a pretty nice job. Anyway, without copying the whole article, here's a link to a piece from Reuter's that outlines ATA's plan:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030729/airlines_ata_earns_3.html

Bottom Line: Is ATA profitable? Yes. Is ATA in Financial trouble? Yes. Is it terminal? I don't think so. I think investors would rather see us make a profit than liquidate the airline for pennies on the dollar.

If TWA could stay in business without earning a profit for ten years, then ATA should be able to survive for a while while earning a profit, while it restructures it debt.

As for newhires knowing this and making an informed decision? Yes they should be aware of this. But since many of the newhires at ATA are coming from the ranks of the unemployed, my guess is that most are willing to accept the risk that ATA may not be around when they reach retirement age. I think most pilots realize in today's post 9/11 world, that working for an airline is a crapshoot.

I will reiterate what MDP727 said. Working for ATA has been the most enjoyable job I've ever had. I will admit, and I'm sure that every ATA pilot will admit it too, that none of grew up dreaming of working for ATA. I wanted to fly for Piedmont (native Tarheel here). ATA has numerous Eastern, Pan Am, Braniff, and Midway pilots in its ranks. We all put in our apps to United, American Delta, and every other airline in the free world. Well, in my case none of those airlines bothered to respond. But ATA did respond, and for me, what a ride it's been. So what should I have done? Given up flying? Non of us aspired to this airline, but the longer we've been here, the prouder we are of what we've become. All we've done for the last 30 years is fly our airplanes all over the world without a single fatality. We're quite proud of that.

I could ramble on, but my beer glass is dry, and if you've read this much you're probably bored to death. I'm going to do as a Captain stated on the ATA pilot's bulletin board: I'm going to fly the airplane as safely as I can, and let mangaement manage. Unlike the mangement teams of other airlines, I trust ours to do the best job possible. It's all I can do.

Cheers,
Brad

 

[General Lee]

NJCapt,

You probably have been to our ATL hub, since you guys train at our facility in ATL on the 738 atleast, and maybe you have seen our 10 daily 767's to FLL--all full. Song is carrying more people than Delta Express, and come Winter it will fill up. How many total flights to Florida do you have from MDW? Here it is from the AUG OAG:
MDW-FLL-3, MDW--RSW--1, MDW-PIE--3, MDW--MIA--2, MDW--MCO--4, MDW-SRQ--maybe 1 daily--ex THURS, and we'll throw in MDW--SJU for laughs--5 weekly flights(No, San Juan isn't in Florida--I know that!!!). Man, you guys are a power house to FLA. We have 12 daily from ATL to MCO and 4 are 777's, 3 are 767-400's, and the rest are 767-300's with one RJ late at night.(For non revs) Now before you bash me about our business plan, we did post a $31million operating profit for June--which isn't bad. Song has many many more flights to FLA than you do, and I know you also fly there from INDY and California (SFO and LAX)---6 flights from INDY and 2 from California. That's huge. Song is a new brand, and it may take awhile, but Song has Delta's financial backing and that CO/NW codeshare also, and it will offer the same as Jetblue (TV's and even a personal Song list---with individual song lists created by each passenger) but out of all three NYC major airports. Also, this Winter it will have 36 757's. We'll see how it does----70% isn't initially bad for this new brand.

Tri-Stardriver,

I am glad you enjoy it. I have heard good things---I have a friend who is a 737-800 Capt over there and he likes it a lot. I like the winglets on the 737-800, and the stretched 757's are nice. Even your TV commercials are cool. It would be nice to have such a good feeling about management etc, but we are having trouble with ours as of late. They probably should take a look at your management--employee relations and take note. And, I used to jump on those L1011's from MCO to ATL all of the time, and they were really nice too.(very large cockpit)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[MDP727]

Mr. Lee comparing our airlines OAG schedule is apples and oranges. Two entirely seperate entities. You have a tremendous flight schedule to Fla and you should with all those airplanes and guys to fly'em. Your a brand name, a staple if you will, I accept that. I'm willing to fly for an airline that has only one flight a day to Fla to one destination. If that flight is full, always, all the time that's what's important to me.
For the record I'm not in concerence with tristar man on one thing. I say congrats to all that have been hired at the biggies. I never applied! My early aviation goal was DAL. During the last hiring boom I was a 727 captain at 28 yr old. DAL was hiring 1000 a year, ATA 60 a year. Being a couple credits short of a degree I wasn't a qualified applicant, point being, ATA still hires pilots.

 

[UM#1]

Wasn't Delta close to buying ATA a few years back?

 

[General Lee]

MDP,

That is impressive being a 727 Captain at 28. (I was only a 727FE at 31......) I did know some Delta Express 737-200 Capt's that were "boy wonders"---in their late 20's---and all I could say was , "Good for them." My point with the OAG was to show NJCAPT that he shouldn't compare ATA and their load factor to our Song, especially when we have mainline and all of its flights to FLA from ATL and CVG. I keep telling you that I like your operation and I hope it contiunes for a long time---the main point I was bringing up with these articles is that a lot of carriers are struggling right now, and hopefully things will rebound. I was not aware of the debt problems at ATA, and I thought some people----who might interview and want to know about them---might be interested. I know after all of this is over and we hopefully bring back the furloughs, maybe Delta will be hiring again. If you still want for some reason to go to DAL (and leave ATA--that may be risky)--get those extra credits done on the internet---I have talked to a lot of guys who have done that. I wish you luck wherever you fly.

FlyChicaga,

I know ATA is adding a lot of new flights---I think the SFO to EWR one is very interesting and gutsy(--I am sure they are just trying to connect all of the Hawaii flights into SFO and the East Coast--which is smart). We made announcements to add new flights today---2 extra 738's from ATL--OAK (to combat Jetblue) and 1 extra flight a day from ATL--SFO. A couple days a go they announced new 737-300 service from SLC to Steamboat Springs in December. That is great--for you and me. As far as Leo Mullin stating what will happen--Delta management said almost the same thing in 1994 (I read the exact statement--the industry has changed forever....) in mid contract talks. We didn't give in then---and we had a huge boom in 1996. We had billion $$$$ profits, and then 9-11 ruined the party, as well as the tech burst. You are right about the Gov't money helping us---but that was really paying us back for the money we spent on security which contributed to other quarterly losses in the past two years. We also made money on the sale of Worldspan, which helps. We eeked out a $184 million profit--which is not bad. Our cash on hand (unrestricted) went from $1.9 Billion to $2.8 Billion---and even though our debt is high, our liquidity is great. IF we were to lose $1 million a day with $2.8 billion on hand (we really have $3 billion in cash--2.8 is unrestricted)--we could go awhile---1000 million equals a billion as I remember it. Then our company states that we did have a $31 million operating profit in June, and July hasn't even been reported yet, but July 4th was a full weeked, and my flights have been pretty full lately. What I am trying to say is that we are cutting costs (not pilots costs--yet anyways), and have gotten leaner--16,000 jobs cut so far (1310 pilots unfortunately), and the business plan includes Song--which is the only LCC competition from a major so far. Delta just refinanced some of its debt due in 2005, and I am sure if we do give back 10-15% eventually along with the other employees, that the debt problems will be paid. Some of the debt problems could be solved quickly---but Delta keeps them around---like the building of huge new terminals in BOS, JFK, and the buying of $1 billion worth of RJs this year alone. Delta chose to do that, and now wants our help. But, we are the best looking major, and things hopefully will improve--for all of us.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Daedalus]

General Lee.....the Spinmeister!!!!

GL,

Let me be the first to congratulate your consistent efforts to defend your company. That is the proper thing to do in most cases since it is this same company which helps you put food on your table, and a roof over your head. However, with that said, I must also tell you that your positive outlook on Delta's future is just a tad bit over the top.

What do I mean? Well let's look at your statement:

Our cash on hand (unrestricted) went from $1.9 Billion to $2.8 Billion---and even though our debt is high, our liquidity is great.

Do you really know how high Delta's debt is? Let's start with the total (both long & short term) debt; as of Mar 31, 2003 (your company's latest SEC filing) Delta was in hock for a total of $23.9 Billion. No big deal right? Hell, you've got years and years to pay that off. In most situations I would agree with that sentiment. Much more alarming however is Delta's short-term debt obligations, aka current liabilities. These are liabilities which are due within the next 12 months. Once again, as of Mar 31, 2003 Delta had a short-term debt obligation of $6.8 Billion . This number has surely gone up since the Q1 number was posted (reference link below).

You then go on to say "....our liquidity is great."

If you mean that liquidity equals working capital (the proper definition of liquidity), then it is anything but great, and marginally worse than AMR's. To put it another way, Delta's quick ratio (a measure of liquidity) is .55; AMR's is .59; and way out in the lead is LUV at 1.55. Any number less than one means you owe more in debt than you possess in relatively liquid assets. All that cash you have (the $2.8 billion) is not even half of the money needed to pay your short-term debt in the next 12 months.....nevermind your normal operating expenses!

Delta better be OCF (operating cash flow) positve by a sizeable margin (a la JBLU) during the next 12 months, or face their creditors with hat in hand asking for a huge favor. As a matter of fact, Leo et al. is already well aware of the dire straits that lie ahead, and with your union saying no to wage concessions, Delta management has now approached their creditors with offers to renegotiate debt repayment due dates....see link:


http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030728/1456001236_1.html

(BTW, reference the link, I'd love to ask the analyst from Vermont what he means by "strong Liquidity" with an apparent $11.4 billion in short-term debt due & $2.8 billion in cash)


While things may seem to be looking up in the current and last quarter, the fall and winter months ahead appear to be ominous again. This is evidenced by the fact that JBLU, AAI, ALK and others are now advertising big fare sales after Labor Day all the way thru Thanksgiving. The big-five majors will have to respond, and it will mean a whole lot more red ink for you and other legacy airlines.

Delta has mortgaged all its assets (net tangible assets under water by whopping $1.7 billion), and it can't sell it's own stock in the secondary markets. The sale of worldspan was probably the last big hoorah without resorting to more draconian measures. There are very few places left to turn to for relief. I can just hear the "B" word falling from Leo's lips if things turn any more negative.....May 2005 looks like an eternity away from today.

For your sake, and all my friends at Delta, I hope that I'm wrong. But I don't think you guys are going miss the blast effects of this one free and clear.

 

[LAZYB]

...and their pension plan is not fully funded. Some billions of $$$$

 

[General Lee]

Daedalus,

Very interesting. You seem to be right in there with Leo. I am sure he asks you for advice. If we were in those dire straits that you predict, wouldn't Leo have asked the other employees for help? No, he would have slashed their wages anyways since they have no unions. It would have been very easy to do that, but he did not, and that would have helped right away. You are right about the debt, and DALPA is looking at that everyday with their EF&A committee. If we were in danger of tanking, like you say, they would have given everything but the kitchen sink, and they are privey to the important documents---unlike you. Delta did just refinance some of the debt payments due in 2005--I believe they paid half in cash and refied the rest at a little higher rate. If and when ALL of the employees give 10-15%, we will easily pay that debt payment off. Sure, we will be paying for a long time, but we are not close to the "B" word you like to point out. Dalpa would be on top of that quickly---what do you think we are? Idiots? Nope. This company is far better off now than we were last year, and we are leaner and meaner. Some of that debt you talk about is debt brought on by the building of two new terminals--one in BOS and one in JFK(if that was really hurting us don't you think our CFO Michele Burns or Leo would stop the construction??). Right? I guess they don't know what they are doing, and only your CEO knows how to run an airline. Give me a break. Jetblue is the solution to every airline. Right. Maybe we need to hire you to clean house? Yeah, and you would require a $10 million signing bonus and a huge off shore pension. We are healthy in the cash department. You seem to think that isn't very important with the high debt, but Standard and Poor's thinks it's good:

"For its part, Delta Air Lines' stock (DAL: news, chart, profile) rose 7.4 percent to $11.98. Standard & Poor's noted Delta faces adverse conditions on the debt-market front, but also said the company has a healthy cash flow. Separately, the carrier announced it's adding flights between Atlanta and Oakland, Calif."

We all know about the debt front, and we do not owe $6.8 billion right away--we owe $1 billion in 2005, and most of that has now been pushed to 2007 and 2008(refied)--waiting for better times. Dalpa is watching this like a hawk, and knows the financial aspects of this company a lot better than YOU do. And, Leo and CFO Michele Burns stated that we were in no danger of Chap 11. We know about the debt payments, and will help when needed. According to your insight--debt is everything. Well, AOL currently has $24 billion in debt, and according to you they should be history. It really is all about cash flow and servicing the debt. And, we have great cash flow. You can easily survive with tons of debt, as long as you can service it, and we can, especially if we eventually give back 10-15% from EVERYONE. And, in case you didn't know, Leo was a banker with First Chicago bank for 15 years--so he probably knows something about this issue, unless you think you know better, and you probably think you do. You really missed your calling as a banker, or a teller.

Lazy B,

The pension shortfall is a function of the stock market. As the stock price rises for each stock, the pension shortfall decreases. Our stock has doubled (from $6.00 to $12.00 or so) in the last 2 months, and it will go up even more when we eventually give some pay back. (Common sense) The shortfall will get smaller and smaller, and Delta has met their minimum obligations as set forth by the government.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[flyhard]

Lee,

You voiced your concern over your furloughed pilots. Then you brag about how your captain buddy sells back over 100 hours of vacation. Now tell me Lee, why would the company start making recalls when they can buy more production from the pilot group? Spin away Lee, spin away.

 

[General Lee]

Flyhard,

Because they have to. They will lose this upcoming grievance( I think in late Sept in ATL) and the word is (on our Dalpa net) that they are preparing to bring back the 250 War Emergency furloughs. Yes, some Captains sell back their vacation, and that is a part of the contract that the senior guys like very much, but they were doing that pre-9-11 too. But, do you think those senior guys pick up a lot of extra trips (besides some greenslips awarded to the very very senior)? No way. If you think everyone gets $68,000 back you are mistaken, and most guys (90%) use their vacation to get away from ATL.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FLB717]

Gen,

1. Delta went for you first on the givebacks so then could cut the other groups and say,"Hey we got money from those evil pilots but hey woldnt give enough now you Mr. (Ramper,Mech,Gate Agent) must share some of the pain also" in the backgound "Mr Leo your 2pm facial is ready, and your 4pm bonus meeting is approving your personal 10 Billion Stock Grant"

2. If the pilot group as a whole reall cared about the furloughed guys (as you say you do) they would not take green slips/overtime/extra to force the company to recall some pilots.