Industry cycles

[zeroline]

All very good points, but..

If your goal is to become an experienced aviator, the advice mar and others give is correct. I "paid my dues," maybee not as much as MAR or many others. But I did my share flight instructing/waiting tables, and picking up ice in an aztec in the middle of the night. I graduated from an aviation university with an internship and hopes of getting hired with low time. At the time I was extremely excited. Since being a kid all I wanted to do was be an airline pilot and here was my golden oportunity. But, because of the way the industry was all I got to do was swim in a pool of hopefuls. Looking back, I think i could've made it through training and IOE and done fine. Some of my buddies would disagree, but not being hired at low time was the BEST thing that could've happened to me. Had I gotten a job flying in the right seat of an RJ right out of college, I could have been, as 350 calls it, "one of those right seat FO drivers who thinks they are the sh!!t" I completely understand that attitude, there were low-time guys who got hired 6 months before furloughs started who in class complained about getting the prop instead of the jet! WTF! At the time it knda pissed me off cause i just felt fortunate to have a job, but if I heard that now Id defiantley give the guy my 2 cents. I have had so many good experiences and met some really good people in the last few years, I would easily trade a right seat FO job right out of college to spend a few years gaining experience.

However, my long-term goal is still to get with a good corporate or airliner one day. Which brings me to my next point.

Getting the experience definately matters to help you be a better pilot. The problem is if you have aspirations to be a corporate or airline pilot, there not looking for just a good pilot. There looking for a good person. From my experience with talking to various interviewing captains and HR people, they basically ask themselves three main questions when done with the interview: 1) Can this person get through training. 2) Is this a safe person and 3) (some say this is the most important) Can I spend four days in the cockpit with this person and sill like them afterwards. A good amount of people dont get hired because of the third reason (which is also just another way of saying having a good attitude). Now Im not saying that just cause your not hired based on attitude you have a bad one. Its just that you didnt give the interviewers that perception. Could be because of nerves or whatever. Thats why it can take people a few interviews before they actually get hired. Now what sucks is, it works the other way too. I know a good share of a$$ holes who are good actors too and can put on a big happy smile for 45 minutes while being interviewed.

Don't I have the skills or professionalism to make it to the airlines? I suppose one could make that point.

From reading your posts, I have no doubt that you have the skills and professionalism to get to the airlines.
I am also not saying someone wouldnt want to spend four days in a cockpit with you. But you might not have given the interviewers the feeling you did.

So, the moral of this all is: Dont be in a huge hurry, get some good experience, ENJOY WHAT YOU DO, and when your ready for that "big job" know how to play the game to get there.

PS please excuse any spelling or grammar errors---I did graduate from an aviation university

 

[johnpeace]

All I ever want to do is fly a king air...if someday I luck into a lear or citation job, I'll be on cloud 9.

But I swear...I'll be sending a resume to Mar's company as soon as I have 1200/200!

 

[Indigo]

All I ever want to do is fly a king air...if someday I luck into a lear or citation job, I'll be on cloud 9.

In that case it's good that you didn't go the Mesa route. Companies like this would rather see more PIC time where you are out making decisions on your own. There was lots of good advice in this thread.

 

[Publishers]

Think

Think about it --- did you ever learn much when everything went right? How much growth came from being in the right place at the right time?

The fact is that we all develop our own boats and once we get comfortable, it is difficult to get out of that boat and explore the waters. In this profession, there are probably more that will because a certain amount of faith and confidence is required to fly aircraft. Still we tend to look at the guy in the other boat and think we want to be there.

I know when I grew up, I thought about becoming an airline pilot but there is a routine and system there that you have to fit into and I did not. Wearing that uniform where you looked like the next bloke was not me at all. I did want to fly though and so bought an airplane and set about learning how to fly it. I loved it. There was more to learn though and there were more airplanes and more licenses. With each challenge there was personal growth and satisfaction.

Later, the hobby became a business but it was still fun. We bought a charter company and I would go fly the check runs at night after working all day with the pilot being paid beside me. It made me a better pilot and a better boss. Still, issues came along that made me get out of the boat that was comfortable. We started a 121 carrier. Later it was into the airlines in a number of senior capacities. Each time when comfort came, something happened to get me out of that comfortable boat.

Like the economy and the airline industry, we all go through cycles. The life events that cause us to get out of the boat often lead us to our next one. Somewhere there is a boat that has my name.

 

[FurloughedAgain]

Mar

First of all: Mar. BEST POST I'VE EVER READ! (the first one) Absolutely should be required reading for ANYONE who is looking to bridge the gap from Apache or Seminole to Dash 8 or CRJ. Well done!

You know, every year or so somebody starts a similar thread. Last year I posted one which I titled, "Unrealistic Expectations"

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=9038&highlight=unrealistic+expectations

If you've read it you'll see that you and I followed different paths and have measured our success differently. I too was furloughed a number of times. I too plugged away in less-than-state-of-the-art equipment (C402s, J-31, Metro..) I grabbed at the so-called "brass-ring" and took a chance on a major. And now after 09/11 i'm starting over again.

Interestingly, despite the fact that our careers went in such different directions, our vision for how the career progression of the newcomers to the industry should go appears identical.

Anyhow, great post. Great thread. This is vintage Flightinfo.com and is truly good reading!

Well done!

 

[johnpeace]

I'm so glad I didn't wind up at Mesa...if I'd known then what I know now (which I've been taught by members of this forum), I wouldn't even have considered it.

Thanks all for a very candid view at the industry and a realistic guide to getting where you want to go!

I'm on my way.

Mar, I'd love to buy you a beer or lunch or something...

 

[mar]

So much to respond to...

...and I don't have much time.

Vetteracer: Alaska Aerofuel! Wow! Great bunch of guys. That's where we get our fuel from. They're a first class operation. Quite a story about the SCC-BRW-SCC flight. Every great low fuel story also includes an iced-up windscreen. Holy cow. I can hear the nervous laughter from here. The funky strip sounds like either a radar site or a mining strip. It could be Indian Mountain, Sparrevohn, Donlin Creek...um there are others but I gotta run.

zeroline: Thanks for your comments!

Furloughed Again: Thank you too for your comments. I remember that thread. Great stuff. I agree, we should hold annual refresher courses for those new to the industry--twisted as it is...

Johnpeace: Lunch or beer? How about lunch *and* beer? Kidding. This is your thread, I'm glad you got something out of it rather than flames and other garbage that send so many away from these boards.

Good luck out there.
Gotta run.

 

[enigma]

How could a liberal be so RIGHT? and logical. MAR, you are the man.

This might just be the second best string ever on Flightinfo. Duke Elegant gets #1.

Johnpeace, Yes the industry cycles. No, the cycles don't make any sense. First, as another writer aluded to, the swings have many causes; some of those were/are: pilot supply, regulatory environment, economic environment, war, terrorism,and consumer preferences. For most of the last century, the pilot supply was driven by war. We trained a heck of a lot of military pilots during the war years and went stagnent in the out years. Currently, the Vietnam era pilot is nearing retirement. Since war really can't be predicted, it makes it hard to predict this cycle. The regulatory environment has taken only one dramatic change in recent history (deregulation in 1978 and 79), so that also makes it hard to use regs as a predictor. The economy does make fairly regular cycles, most armchair economists assume that these cycles occur ever seven or so years. Terrorism also seems hard to predict. Consumer preferences always change, once again making this a sorry predictor.

Which leaves us with an industry affected, largely at random, by unpredictable events. Don't worry about having missed an upswing, just be ready for the next one.

John, you originally asked for encouragement. So, don't look back, what's behind you is of no importance. If you understand the life of a professional pilot, and know where you want to be; and, are ready to make the necessary sacrifices, you WILL succeed.

Good Luck,
enigma

 

[mar]

Logic.

How could a liberal be so RIGHT? and logical. MAR, you are the man.

Well, I'll be. Logical, eh?

Would you believe I can be just as logical in areas like health care, education, constitutional rights and foreign policy?

Ah nevermind, let's not derail this thread OK? I kinda like the pats on the back for a change.

Peace, or, whatever blows yer hair back.
(sorry, more sarcasm, I gotta knock that off)

 

[Whirlwind]

I fly junk.

The longer the road to the airlines, the better pilot you'll be.

Forget about jets right now. Jets are for people with little minds. Sure they're shiney and fast. Lots of state-of-the-art gizmos and such. It's all for people who can't fly.

Mar, to some extent, I agree with you... When I started this journey as a pilot, I didn't want to be a CFI either, but I wouldn't trade the last 9 months of instructing for anything. I cannot tell you how much being a CFI has taught me, but it has been at least as much as all my training put together.

This being said, the problem with the advice "fly junk", is that you must survive the experience to get something out of it. Getting killed defeats the entire point...

Besides, that 300 hour wonder pilot sitting up front in the right seat isn't flying the airplane, the 2,000 hour Captain is.

Regardless, I do agree that there are some lessons that only experience can teach, and flying to the same dozen airports in a CRJ does not teach many of them.

Fly Safe!

 

[bobbysamd]

M A P D and hiring cycles

I came within a hair of going to Mesa Pilot Development back in '01. We toured the school at Farmington, met with some students, met with some staff, had financing...it looked so enticing, 16 months and X thousand dollars and I come out ready to sit in the right seat of an RJ ( I knew nothing of the industry, Mesa or anything at the time). The day of my FAA medical exam I woke up and saw the jets fly into WTC 1 & 2. We decided it would be sort of stupid to launch an airline career in the face of that and shelved our plans . . . . 3 years later, I wish I had gone.

You still could go. Two problems: You would have to retake your Private at MAPD, which may not be a bad thing because you would be well indoctrinated and retrained the Mesa way. The second problem, as Resume Writer points out, that although you might do well and be interviewed you may not be hired, or, more likely, you might be placed in a hiring pool with no early hope of being hired.

Right now looks like a PERFECT time (industry rebound wise) to be sitting on all the required training, 1500 or so hours and previous 121 jet experience.

But look at how hiring is really going. Slowly. Don't confuse hiring with a hiring boom. Hiring never truly stops. Someone is always hiring. But that does not mean that pilots are being hired in droves.

Now I am reading about regionals lowering minimums and thinking oh crap oh crap the train is leaving the station and I don't have my ticket yet . . . . If we're at the beginning of a rebound in the flying industries, historically...how long does the rebound last? I understand the +/- times are cyclical in nature (historically) and just wonder if I'll be able to catch the train before it stops again.

Little hiring seems to occur in the early part of a decade with hiring picking up in the later years. The late '80s-early '90s period is the one I know best, because that was when I tried. I was 36 when I decided to change careers in 1987. Hiring was going crazy. Hiring mins had gone down from typical commuter mins of 3000 total-1000 multi to 1500 total-500 multi. I already had been flying for a few years. I had my degree and only needed my multi ratings. It seemed like a good decision. By 1990, when I was finally ripe for hire, the first Iraq war was mobilizing, the economy tanked, and that hiring boom ended, though there sill was some hiring. Although I believe that other forces opposed my efforts, I feel I might have been hired if I had started a year earlier.

Of course, there was a great hiring boom from 1995 to 2000, when mins dropped even lower. I started reading this board three years ago. People were talking about great numbers of pilots being hired with 1200 total-200 (or less) of multi. They were whining about how hard it was to get 200 of multi. I could scarcely believe my eyes.

As I wrote above, you might rethink Mesa. Do bear in mind that no matter which direction you take it could be some time before you get your chance. With fuel prices being so high, fewer people may fly, which will slow down the economy and slow down hiring even further. Then, there are the furloughees awaiting recall. Then, there are the more-experienced pilots who are ahead of you. So, you may have to await you turn for several years. By that time, the industry may have changed. In the meantime, if you do not opt for something like MAPD, you can certainly gain valuable experience helping Mar fly his DC-6.

Good luck with your plans.

 

[FlyChicaga]

Besides, that 300 hour wonder pilot sitting up front in the right seat isn't flying the airplane, the 2,000 hour Captain is.

Regardless, I do agree that there are some lessons that only experience can teach, and flying to the same dozen airports in a CRJ does not teach many of them.

Are you sure about that? I was hired with low time around what you stated, and I flew 50% of the time (sometimes more, when with a Captain who wanted to give me the chance to get more landings under my belt since I was a new guy).

As for the lessons, sure, being out of a comfy route structure can teach many things. But being in the same route structure can teach many things that you don't get from flying to different airports each day. The simple fact is the experience you gain comes from what you put into the flying you do. You can fly junk, but if you don't apply yourself and open yourself to the experience then you won't gain much from it. Or, you can CFI for a minimal time and move directly to a regional... where if you work hard you open yourself to the opportunity to learn more than you ever imagined. It can go either way. It just depends on how willing you are to use your job as a every-continuing classroom versus just a paycheck.

 

[TurboS7]

I have to run but I can only second everything that Mar has said. Flying junk will give the best experience that you can have. When you get to the new stuff you are heads and tails above everyone else. When you are going across the North Atlantic and both IRS's go tits up. Shoot, just follow the contrails. Life is easy when you have the experience behind you.

 

[Flyingdutchman]

"The simple fact is the experience you gain comes from what you put into the flying you do. You can fly junk, but if you don't apply yourself and open yourself to the experience then you won't gain much from it. Or, you can CFI for a minimal time and move directly to a regional... where if you work hard you open yourself to the opportunity to learn more than you ever imagined. It can go either way. It just depends on how willing you are to use your job as a every-continuing classroom versus just a paycheck."
------

Amen!

 

[enigma]

I have to run but I can only second everything that Mar has said. Flying junk will give the best experience that you can have. When you get to the new stuff you are heads and tails above everyone else. When you are going across the North Atlantic and both IRS's go tits up. Shoot, just follow the contrails. Life is easy when you have the experience behind you.

Reminds me of the night that we took off from FLL right behind JetBlue. He in his new Airbus, we in our "junk" Maddog. The maddog was equiped with the minimum required for the AR, VOR's and ADF's. When we took the runway, the Captain instructed me to keep my eyes on the tail stinger light of that BlueBus. El Capitan navigated all the way to Wilmington by IFL, I Follow Light. Of course we kept the ADF tuned. Keeping the needles pointed in the correct direction was greatly enhanced by that little white light five miles ahead.

enigma

 

[Whirlwind]

Are you sure about that? I was hired with low time around what you stated, and I flew 50% of the time (sometimes more, when with a Captain who wanted to give me the chance to get more landings under my belt since I was a new guy).

I'm not sure about anything, but those are my current opinions. Always subject to change as I gain more experience.

You know, that's one of the interesting things about this business, one's viewpoint tends to shift as one gains experience. Most of what I thought when I had 200 hours was wrong, and I'm sure that will be true again when I've got 5,000+ hours, looking back on now.

As for the lessons, sure, being out of a comfy route structure can teach many things. But being in the same route structure can teach many things that you don't get from flying to different airports each day.

That is true, but after having spent the past 9 months teaching the same thing about 2/3 of the time, I'm finding that I'm surprised less and less often by students in the pattern.

I do find that as I take students out to new places and do things that we don't practice as often, I'm still learning a lot. I finally have a pair of full time instrument students who are teaching me many things I didn't know, for example.

Or, you can CFI for a minimal time and move directly to a regional... where if you work hard you open yourself to the opportunity to learn more than you ever imagined. It can go either way. It just depends on how willing you are to use your job as a every-continuing classroom versus just a paycheck.

True enough...

err... btw, did any of us *really* get into this for a paycheck?!?