Industry cycles

[bobbysamd]

M A P D and hiring cycles

I came within a hair of going to Mesa Pilot Development back in '01. We toured the school at Farmington, met with some students, met with some staff, had financing...it looked so enticing, 16 months and X thousand dollars and I come out ready to sit in the right seat of an RJ ( I knew nothing of the industry, Mesa or anything at the time). The day of my FAA medical exam I woke up and saw the jets fly into WTC 1 & 2. We decided it would be sort of stupid to launch an airline career in the face of that and shelved our plans . . . . 3 years later, I wish I had gone.

You still could go. Two problems: You would have to retake your Private at MAPD, which may not be a bad thing because you would be well indoctrinated and retrained the Mesa way. The second problem, as Resume Writer points out, that although you might do well and be interviewed you may not be hired, or, more likely, you might be placed in a hiring pool with no early hope of being hired.

Right now looks like a PERFECT time (industry rebound wise) to be sitting on all the required training, 1500 or so hours and previous 121 jet experience.

But look at how hiring is really going. Slowly. Don't confuse hiring with a hiring boom. Hiring never truly stops. Someone is always hiring. But that does not mean that pilots are being hired in droves.

Now I am reading about regionals lowering minimums and thinking oh crap oh crap the train is leaving the station and I don't have my ticket yet . . . . If we're at the beginning of a rebound in the flying industries, historically...how long does the rebound last? I understand the +/- times are cyclical in nature (historically) and just wonder if I'll be able to catch the train before it stops again.

Little hiring seems to occur in the early part of a decade with hiring picking up in the later years. The late '80s-early '90s period is the one I know best, because that was when I tried. I was 36 when I decided to change careers in 1987. Hiring was going crazy. Hiring mins had gone down from typical commuter mins of 3000 total-1000 multi to 1500 total-500 multi. I already had been flying for a few years. I had my degree and only needed my multi ratings. It seemed like a good decision. By 1990, when I was finally ripe for hire, the first Iraq war was mobilizing, the economy tanked, and that hiring boom ended, though there sill was some hiring. Although I believe that other forces opposed my efforts, I feel I might have been hired if I had started a year earlier.

Of course, there was a great hiring boom from 1995 to 2000, when mins dropped even lower. I started reading this board three years ago. People were talking about great numbers of pilots being hired with 1200 total-200 (or less) of multi. They were whining about how hard it was to get 200 of multi. I could scarcely believe my eyes.

As I wrote above, you might rethink Mesa. Do bear in mind that no matter which direction you take it could be some time before you get your chance. With fuel prices being so high, fewer people may fly, which will slow down the economy and slow down hiring even further. Then, there are the furloughees awaiting recall. Then, there are the more-experienced pilots who are ahead of you. So, you may have to await you turn for several years. By that time, the industry may have changed. In the meantime, if you do not opt for something like MAPD, you can certainly gain valuable experience helping Mar fly his DC-6.

Good luck with your plans.

 

[FlyChicaga]

Besides, that 300 hour wonder pilot sitting up front in the right seat isn't flying the airplane, the 2,000 hour Captain is.

Regardless, I do agree that there are some lessons that only experience can teach, and flying to the same dozen airports in a CRJ does not teach many of them.

Are you sure about that? I was hired with low time around what you stated, and I flew 50% of the time (sometimes more, when with a Captain who wanted to give me the chance to get more landings under my belt since I was a new guy).

As for the lessons, sure, being out of a comfy route structure can teach many things. But being in the same route structure can teach many things that you don't get from flying to different airports each day. The simple fact is the experience you gain comes from what you put into the flying you do. You can fly junk, but if you don't apply yourself and open yourself to the experience then you won't gain much from it. Or, you can CFI for a minimal time and move directly to a regional... where if you work hard you open yourself to the opportunity to learn more than you ever imagined. It can go either way. It just depends on how willing you are to use your job as a every-continuing classroom versus just a paycheck.

 

[TurboS7]

I have to run but I can only second everything that Mar has said. Flying junk will give the best experience that you can have. When you get to the new stuff you are heads and tails above everyone else. When you are going across the North Atlantic and both IRS's go tits up. Shoot, just follow the contrails. Life is easy when you have the experience behind you.

 

[Flyingdutchman]

"The simple fact is the experience you gain comes from what you put into the flying you do. You can fly junk, but if you don't apply yourself and open yourself to the experience then you won't gain much from it. Or, you can CFI for a minimal time and move directly to a regional... where if you work hard you open yourself to the opportunity to learn more than you ever imagined. It can go either way. It just depends on how willing you are to use your job as a every-continuing classroom versus just a paycheck."
------

Amen!

 

[enigma]

I have to run but I can only second everything that Mar has said. Flying junk will give the best experience that you can have. When you get to the new stuff you are heads and tails above everyone else. When you are going across the North Atlantic and both IRS's go tits up. Shoot, just follow the contrails. Life is easy when you have the experience behind you.

Reminds me of the night that we took off from FLL right behind JetBlue. He in his new Airbus, we in our "junk" Maddog. The maddog was equiped with the minimum required for the AR, VOR's and ADF's. When we took the runway, the Captain instructed me to keep my eyes on the tail stinger light of that BlueBus. El Capitan navigated all the way to Wilmington by IFL, I Follow Light. Of course we kept the ADF tuned. Keeping the needles pointed in the correct direction was greatly enhanced by that little white light five miles ahead.

enigma

 

[Whirlwind]

Are you sure about that? I was hired with low time around what you stated, and I flew 50% of the time (sometimes more, when with a Captain who wanted to give me the chance to get more landings under my belt since I was a new guy).

I'm not sure about anything, but those are my current opinions. Always subject to change as I gain more experience.

You know, that's one of the interesting things about this business, one's viewpoint tends to shift as one gains experience. Most of what I thought when I had 200 hours was wrong, and I'm sure that will be true again when I've got 5,000+ hours, looking back on now.

As for the lessons, sure, being out of a comfy route structure can teach many things. But being in the same route structure can teach many things that you don't get from flying to different airports each day.

That is true, but after having spent the past 9 months teaching the same thing about 2/3 of the time, I'm finding that I'm surprised less and less often by students in the pattern.

I do find that as I take students out to new places and do things that we don't practice as often, I'm still learning a lot. I finally have a pair of full time instrument students who are teaching me many things I didn't know, for example.

Or, you can CFI for a minimal time and move directly to a regional... where if you work hard you open yourself to the opportunity to learn more than you ever imagined. It can go either way. It just depends on how willing you are to use your job as a every-continuing classroom versus just a paycheck.

True enough...

err... btw, did any of us *really* get into this for a paycheck?!?