Impending 'pilot shortage' rumor is false

[Non Union]

Most airlines have thousands of applications on file. In some cases like UPS, FedEx, SW, probably tens of thousands.

Add to that the impending change in the age 60 rule, plus the likelyhood of one airline not making it (US Airways) and poof, management has the leverage back.

Thankfully.

 

[General Lee]

Most airlines have thousands of applications on file. In some cases like UPS, FedEx, SW, probably tens of thousands.

Add to that the impending change in the age 60 rule, plus the likelyhood of one airline not making it (US Airways) and poof, management has the leverage back.

Thankfully.

When I think of USAir I POOF too.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[737 Pylt]

Add to that the impending change in the age 60 rule, plus the likelyhood of one airline not making it (US Airways) and poof, management has the leverage back.

Thankfully.

I can't wait to hear from the cactus quartet on this statement alone!

737

 

[FatesPawn]

management has the leverage back.

Thankfully.

Doug,

Don't you have better things to do with your time? I'll buy the first round, but I can't afford your tab, even with our 1,2,3's!

-Fate

 

[bigtexpilot]

Most airlines have thousands of applications on file. In some cases like UPS, FedEx, SW, probably tens of thousands.

Add to that the impending change in the age 60 rule, plus the likelyhood of one airline not making it (US Airways) and poof, management has the leverage back.

Thankfully.

Topechalamonaqway

 

[flatspin7]

I think my dog just poofed!

An application doesnt mean a quailified application.

 

[pilotyip]

Same 10K resumes

The top airlines all have the same 10K resumes on file. The 10K resume are not uniform in qualifications. If 4K of those get jobs, they will be the most qualified in the pile. Every pile will go down by 4K, competitive mins at every airline will then drop in the next year. Becasue when those 4K are skimmed off of the pile the qualifications of the the remaining 6K will be lower. The next year they will have to hire another 4K off of the pile, now there is only 2K left. Again the lesser qualifed become the source of future hiring. It will be the same as it was in 99-01 time frame.

 

[Lear70]

The top airlines all have the same 10K resumes on file. The 10K resume are not uniform in qualifications. If 4K of those get jobs, they will be the most qualified in the pile. Every pile will go down by 4K, competitive mins at every airline will then drop in the next year. Becasue when those 4K are skimmed off of the pile the qualifications of the the remaining 6K will be lower. The next year they will have to hire another 4K off of the pile, now there is only 2K left. Again the lesser qualifed become the source of future hiring. It will be the same as it was in 99-01 time frame.

Unlikely.

First, the majors will take 2 years to snap up 4,000 pilots.

SWA needs 700 pilots this year. JBLU needs 700. AirTran needs 400. DAL needs 250, so does CAL. FDX needs MAYBE 100, UPS 100, and that about wraps things up.

That looks like a continuing trend for the next 2 years as AA, UAir, NWA, and UAL start forcing their furloughees to sh*t or get off the pot.

During that time the regional guys are getting about 800 hours a year of Turbine PIC and will, in all likelihood, add about 1,000 guys to the pile of QUALIFIED applicants every year.

It's really simple. 10,000 qualified applications on file. 2,500 pilots hired, 1,000 more pilots become qualified. = 8,500 qualified applicants by 2008.

Continue math... 7,000 qualified applicants by 2009.

Then the rest of the Legacies start hiring furlough fodder. Call it 4,000 pilots hired, 1,000 pilots still become qualified apps each year. Equals 5,500 qualified applicants by 2010. 2,000 qualified applicants by 2011.

End of hiring boom.

And that's not counting the number of separated military.

The regionals are going to get hard up for qualified applicants, and will begin to hurt ESPECIALLY bad for qualified CA upgrades.

The majors won't feel the pain during this decade.

 

[pilotyip]

Lear OK your number is different, we are boht guessing. I was putting the recalls of lay offs as part of the hiring, because they are part of 10K resumes out there. But the result is the same we will see a reduction in competitive minimums. History is the best predictor. BTW the military is not part of the equation; they just don't train many pilots anymore.

 

[PHXFLYR]

Then who is flying all those F18's out of my local neighborhood Naval Air Station?


PHXFLYR

 

[lindsaya99]

Then who is flying all those F18's out of my local neighborhood Naval Air Station?


PHXFLYR

Naval aviators turned airline pilots, furloughed and now flying for the Reserves.

 

[luckytohaveajob]

Pilot Shortage Not Possible!!!!!!!!!!

All your hire number guessing failed to mention the 150-300 per year that won't retire if age 65 becomes law.

Age 65 will keep the qualified applicant list fat and those wanting a career scarce. Age 65 will force a slowing if not stopping of the future hiring.

The biggest myth in aviation is this idea there is a pilot shortage. There will never become a pilot shortage. In todays system the minimums will be lowered to fill the void. If tomorrows system allows pilots to fly to 65, the minimums will be raised and the geezers will stay filling the void.

There will NEVER be a pilot shortage in America. India, China, the Middle East, maybe but unlikey as expats fill the void.

 

[pilotyip]

They may be flying near your house, but they are not flying many other places. The average F-18 pilot is getting about 15 hours per month in an airplane, unless they are deployed.

 

[pilotyip]

Shortage of expereince growing

Lucky you are wrong, there is already a pilot shortage on the entry level. Not to mention the almost complete lack of new CFI's. It used be you had to CFI for a couple years, that is no longer true, you don't need to CFI anymore with a Com/Inst/MEL you can go straight to the regionals. It will spread to the bigger boys. Why is Jet Blue having open houses? True there may never be a complete lack of pilots, but the experience level of the new hires at all levels will continue to drop.

 

[HA25]

Most airlines have thousands of applications on file. In some cases like UPS, FedEx, SW, probably tens of thousands.

Add to that the impending change in the age 60 rule, plus the likelyhood of one airline not making it (US Airways) and poof, management has the leverage back.

Thankfully.

there NEVER will be a pilot shortage... the likes of AIRINC and the various pilot farms will see to that with their constant barrage of "Be an airline pilot" ads that show the young guy with the fancy uniform in the cockpit of a big boeing and wearing a huge smile, right above the $29,995 price tag..

 

[firstthird]

According to about 5 other threads, SWA just lowered our turbine PIC mins to 1000 again (which they probably should have been the whole time) from 1300. I doubt the people department did that because they have too many applications on file.

Most things go in cycles. It is true that every RJ captain that leaves for the majors opens up more PIC time for guys behind him, but, it is also true that in a good pilot market it is possible for the pool of 'highly qualified' pilots to run low. It is different than a pilot shortage, there will still be plenty of pilots out there, just maybe not with as much 'seasoning' as many employers would like to see.

 

[jtf]

I also have a hard time believing that there will be a major shortage any time soon, unless the FAA gets user fees pushed through and effectively kills most private aviation. Even then it will take some time to significantly lower requirements at the big boys. I would like to see a bit more squeeze on all the airlines for quality applicants so that maybe pilots could get a bit more leverage in negotiations and be able to demand more- the proffession deserves better than it's gotten over the last many years and a never ending line of pilots who will fly a jet for almost nothing must go away before that will happen.

 

[Hpilot]

According to about 5 other threads, SWA just lowered our turbine PIC mins to 1000 again (which they probably should have been the whole time) from 1300. I doubt the people department did that because they have too many applications on file.

Most things go in cycles. It is true that every RJ captain that leaves for the majors opens up more PIC time for guys behind him, but, it is also true that in a good pilot market it is possible for the pool of 'highly qualified' pilots to run low. It is different than a pilot shortage, there will still be plenty of pilots out there, just maybe not with as much 'seasoning' as many employers would like to see.

The same thing is happening in the financial sector. Plenty of applications, but not enough that have experience/skills. Some of the firms are hiring lower experience workers and then just paying for additional training.

 

[Hpilot]

I still can't believe there are people still fighting to get into this industry. I swear half the people that find out I'm an airline pilot get all glossy eyed and go off about the fact they always wanted to be an airline pilot. Even my wife's boss told me about how being a legacy airline pilot was always his dream job. They don't seem to realize that Northwest, US Airways, United, and Delta aren't what they used to be. Yeah I know General and 737Plt/FJD2 you're going to take a break from you're Kool Aid enema and spout off how great Delta is. Sorry you suck too.

 

[becket]

No Sh*t...

 

[LJDRVR]

With the coming user fees and sadly the death of GA in the States, plan on a huge pilot shrtage at the entry level. It will take several years for this to maybe translate to the majors, but without GA, things are going to very different in a few years. Regionals, as somebody already said, are feeling the pain now.

Many of these 500 hour guys and gals are not going to be upgradable in two years.

 

[Falconjet]

According to about 5 other threads, SWA just lowered our turbine PIC mins to 1000 again (which they probably should have been the whole time) from 1300. I doubt the people department did that because they have too many applications on file.

Most things go in cycles. It is true that every RJ captain that leaves for the majors opens up more PIC time for guys behind him, but, it is also true that in a good pilot market it is possible for the pool of 'highly qualified' pilots to run low. It is different than a pilot shortage, there will still be plenty of pilots out there, just maybe not with as much 'seasoning' as many employers would like to see.

No, they're having to do that because they interview EVERYBODY who meets their mins (a great policy by the way) and then end up only hiring about 15% of those they interview. Then they interview a certain percentage multiple times. They might be the one quality company who finds themselves needing more qualified applicants because they shoot so many down on the first cut.

I don't see a pilot shortage looming, particularly with the possibility of the age 60 rule changing.

FJ

 

[pilotyip]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

 

[HA25]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

Well it all depends on what airlines you look at.. sure there is a shortage of experienced pilots applying to bottom feeder operations, 135's, and other low quality jobs, but I don't think SWA, UPS, Fedex, or most of the Legacy carriers are having a hard time getting high quality applications that far exceed their demand.

In the end, companies need to learn a simple rule... "if you wana play, you have to pay"

You don't attract high caliber pilots applicants to a job when you pay like crap, and expect your pilots to be married to their jobs via a pager or some other bs.

 

[hammer2]

believe me I do the recruiting at my airline, there is a pilot shortage out there.

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

 

[firstthird]

No, they're having to do that because they interview EVERYBODY who meets their mins (a great policy by the way) and then end up only hiring about 15% of those they interview. Then they interview a certain percentage multiple times. They might be the one quality company who finds themselves needing more qualified applicants because they shoot so many down on the first cut.
FJ

Actually, SWA stopped giving interviews to everyone that met the minimums 2 or 3 years ago when they went to a 'quality screen.' Supposedly they raised the PIC mins to more accurately reflect those that were competitive (i.e. save people from spending money on a type who were not likely to get an interview was my take, admittedly from the outside of the process)

I agree that we do seem to hire a pretty low percentage and have been quite frustrated about it at times (when you're writing letters for good guys and they get turned down). sometimes I think our people department never recalibrated their process from the mid-nineties when we were a second tier airline to most and the current situation.

That being said, they seem to do a good job so far be it from me to think I know better. I fly the plane.

 

[freightdogfred]

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

Not to bash Yip, but calling it an Airline is a bit of a stretch. It's more like a Certificate, a 121 Supplemental to be exact.

 

[HA25]

Yip it's because your airline sucks!

I was trying to politically tap dance around that fact.. but yes.

 

[MrSky]

Ever since the Days of Orville and Wilbur Wright, there has Always been two guys wanting to fly one airplane... No pilot shortage soon!

Qualified Pilots...Now thats another story all together... Watch MESA and the like, start hiring 250/hr wonders.

 

[highsky]

UPS now requires transoceanic experience to even knock on the door. They wouldn't be doing that if they were desperate.