Impact of change in Flight Time/Rest reg on pilot staffing

[dirkdigler]

What do you all think how much the change in flight time/rest reg will have an impact on pilot staffing at airlines? (How much, why, counter arguments, etc.)

 

[BeCareful!]

I predict the quick recall of all major airline furloughs and probably hiring at all the majors by August. The next round of furloughs will follow in October or November, retirement age will change to 70.

 

[BeCareful!]

In all seriousness, has anything been announced that we can use in order to predict? Until I hear some numbers (rest requirements, duty time limits, etc.) it would just be a WAG

 

[dirkdigler]

In all seriousness, has anything been announced that we can use in order to predict? Until I hear some numbers (rest requirements, duty time limits, etc.) it would just be a WAG

Indeed. I am keenly interested in what FAA will publish on NPRM and as the eventual final version not only as a staffing issue but also as a safety issue, as we all know how rediculous it has been...

 

[dirkdigler]

i predict the quick recall of all major airline furloughs and probably hiring at all the majors by august. The next round of furloughs will follow in october or november, retirement age will change to 70.

lol!!

 

[SuperFLUF]

IF the new flight, duty & rest rules will require increased staffing, I guarantee the FAA will allow the airlines to phase in the rules over a period of time that is favorable to them. (think years not months)

 

[Yuppyguppy]

Just like they phased in age 65

 

[SuperFLUF]

Just like they phased in age 65

That was a benefit for the airlines. Apples to oranges.
Everything that costs the airlines money gets phased in.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

It will not effect airlines that have trip and duty rigs like DAL, it will kill the regionals as their costs per block hr will go way up.

I also expect to see hiring.

 

[Hutchman]

Just like they phased in age 65

The FAA did not change the rule. The freedom to fly act did.

 

[contrail67]

It will not effect airlines that have trip and duty rigs like DAL, it will kill the regionals as their costs per block hr will go way up.

I also expect to see hiring.

At what level...regional or Major...the hiring.

 

[pilotyip]

unintended consequence

Remember for every action there is an unintended consequence. If this ads crewmembers without increasing revenue, either wages have to go down or fares have to go up. If fares go up fewer people ride, thus fewer flights, fewer airplanes, fewer pilots and fewer Capt seats. So while this may be look like a good thing, it may end up being good for a few and not so good for many others.

 

[WolfManPack]

I don't think so...

Remember for every action there is an unintended consequence. If this ads crewmembers without increasing revenue, either wages have to go down or fares have to go up. If fares go up fewer people ride, thus fewer flights, fewer airplanes, fewer pilots and fewer Capt seats. So while this may be look like a good thing, it may end up being good for a few and not so good for many others.

While I understand what your saying here, you do realize that in many cases, it is more expensive to get in a car and drive to your destination than it is to fly. Flying is premium travel and folks generally understand that concept. The problem has been that carriers have not been willing to place premium prices on premium travel because of priceline.com, etc.

Airlines could charge substantially more for the tickets and people would still fly. The more relevant question is at what "price point" will the traveling public say it's not worth it any more.

For gasoline for example, when a gallon of gas hit $4.00 per gallon, people changed their driving and day-to-day living habits. What is the price point of a ticket to fly across the USA or over to Europe? I submit that it's no where close to what people pay today to travel by air.

When air carriers increase their ticket prices by just 5 or 10 dollars it tremendously increases their bottom line. I don't see an increase in $15 per ticket causing the general public to rethink their vacation plans.

If all the carriers are affected equally by the rule, then it will just simply be a cost of doing business increase passed along to consumers.

I really believe airline employees have had enough with management attempts to take money out of their wallets to subsidize the company.

 

[Jetjockey]

Let them eat cake........................whilst driving in their cars down the interstate. I for one will not subsidize another vacation or business trip!

 

[GuinessGuy]

My big fear is the days of 85 hours of credit/block with 17 days off will go the way of Pan Am!!!!

I don't want 85 credit/block hrs with 10 days off!!!!!!

 

[GuinessGuy]

My big fear is the days of 85 hours of credit/block with 17 days off will go the way of Pan Am!!!!

I don't want 85 credit/block hrs with 10 days off!!!!!!

 

[pilotyip]

When air carriers increase their ticket prices by just 5 or 10 dollars it tremendously increases their bottom line. I don't see an increase in $15 per ticket causing the general public to rethink their vacation plans.

don't believe so, look at SWA wo tried to rasie fares last spring, they did not hold a week. It is not that people have to travel, they travel because it is cheap. When it is not cheap, they do not travel. Airlines live off retirees, shopping for cheap tickets

 

[Homer Jay]

don't believe so, look at SWA wo tried to rasie fares last spring, they did not hold a week. It is not that people have to travel, they travel because it is cheap. When it is not cheap, they do not travel. Airlines live off retirees, shopping for cheap tickets

No, airlines live off the business traveler.

 

[WolfManPack]

No, airlines live off the business traveler.

This is correct..in fact the airline I'm furloughed from admits that freely. It's not really a big secret that business travelers pay the bills.

The fact is that if all the airlines are affected the same by the FT / DT in the way of costs, then the fares will have to go up.

I believe pilots are done with subsidizing the companies they work for. At least I know I am.

 

[av8tor19]

To see how it would affect pilot staffing, you would have to look at the current duty day and the overnights.

1. If you airline already has a max 14 hour day, not much would change.

2. If your airline has rest periods less than 10 hours, where you take the last flight in, to the first flight out, that is where the major change will be.

If option 2 exists then it creates a whole other dynamic.

To solve option 2, the company can reschedule the overnight for 10 hours.

If not, then they will have to double stage the overnight. 1. For the inbound crew to leave later. 2. For the early morning crew to get in for their rest.

So now the overnight which required 1 crew now requires 2.

It's not over yet. When you sent the first crew in to rest, you just restricted 1/2 their duty day because it's spent in a hotel. Get too many of these and most lines will have a hard time making 70 hours.

I do see some hiring.

 

[Skippy]

companies would just do continuos duty/stand up/high speed/ whatever the hell each airlines calls them- overnights- that would mitigate any need to higher alot more pilots

i like them-- most pay for least amount of work-sign me up

 

[crj567]

It will not effect airlines that have trip and duty rigs like DAL, it will kill the regionals as their costs per block hr will go way up.

I also expect to see hiring.

Yep-and we will see 737s going back and forth to DHN all day long... Each will have 38 passengers who enjoy all the ping-pong tables installed where the extra rows of seats used to be.

-You really are completely pointless, ACL.

 

[pilotyip]

Not true

No, airlines live off the business traveler.

Not true, bus travelers are the highest revenue generators, and without them they could not survive. But the airlines have to fill those empty seats with anything that gives money to the airline. I saw an article once that all of SWA's profitability was based upon 3.5 seats per flight filled advance purchase prices. At higher prices fewer passengers, particularly those who don’t have to go by air and only go because it is cheap and it will affect the bottom line. Study airline yield management. The airlines can demand high fares on Fri/Sun/Mon when the business guys travels, but on Tues/Wed/Sat they have to put something in that seat that generates revenue. There is too much capacity in the system and the airlines are chasing LF. UAL just made a decision to reduce capacity with it's future fleet, replacing the 767, 777 and 747 with 787’s and 350's

 

[Splert]

Maybe not much of a hit ot B6.

we have been told the day extension of flight time will absorb any additional staffing due to reduced night duty and flight time.

Nobody really knows until ink is put to paper.