I'll Call the F9 Bluff

[StopNTSing]

From what I have witnessed, commuting in and out of DIA the last 3 years SWA is the only carrier operating flights that are considerably empty. This includes UAL, which with respect to their pilots, treats their customers like dogsh!t. G. Kelly says he is comfortable with how SWA is doing in the Denver market, but I think this is just a front for one of their only mistakes in recent years, add this to their decision to operate in the New York Market and compete with RJ's, you will see SWA shrink considerably in the next two years.

Okay, so lets get a quick score on the Denver "mistake".
1) Southwest flights observed to be "considerably empty" by jumpseater from other airline (a highly accurate and respected metric of airline financial performance)
2) Southwest supposedly losing money in DIA (perhaps, depending upon how one does the math...us line-swine will probably never be privy to the real numbers, so who knows?)
3) Of the two other major players in the DIA market, one is currently CH11 and the other is widely acknowledged to be rudderless and on life-support.

Yes, when you total it all up, DEN has been a big mistake for SWA. I guess some investments just take longer than others to pay off.

As for the other pending mistake in LGA, I don't know of too many instances where the RJ has prevailed over a Boeing in a capacity-constrained market like NYC. If anything, it sounds like a case of bringing a knife to a gun fight.

It is going to be pretty difficult to pay those high wages as the pilot group matures into higher pay rates without fuel hedge advantages to take advantage of. I may be wrong, but the poolies may be swimming for years to come without F9 and their routes into Mexico, DCA, and Canada. I commend the F9 union for telling them to go sh!t in their hat... that is if they wore them that is JP

On this we can agree. Our poolies may be swimming a long time (who knows where this economy is heading?), but at least now they won't have be swimming behind 700 F9 pilots. I also commend FAPA for telling us to sh!t in our hats (some do still wear the hat here, though they are viewed with suspicion by their peers.) Our union made an offer, believed it to be fair based upon the (unfortunate) negotiating position F9 finds itself in along with SWAPA's fiduciary duty to look first after current SWA pilots, and it was judged as wanting by FAPA. No hard feelings anyone. Perhaps Republic will prove to be the better option for the employees of F9.....and if it is not, then don't go blaming us.

 

[firstthird]

well said.

(some do still wear the hat here, though they are viewed with suspicion by their peers.)

awesome observation.

 

[JOPILOT]

StopNTSing,

I never meant to have hard numbers on SWA performance in DEN, only and observation which as you mentioned is probably as accurate as anything? although I recall Gary Kelly mentioning last week that the acquiring of F9 would help solidify 7 of 13 SWA weakest markets?--Denver Post I believe?

Now as far as being a prudent move to not roll over for SWAPA? It might have been a poor decision, maybe not. We will have to wait and see how F9/ Republic compete with your culture. I have friends at both places and also some swimmers that I would like to see back in the saddle ASAP.

You have to agree that it is nice to see some backbone being shown in this industry, even though it may end up being the more difficult path for F9.

As far as the hat goes, no suspicion from a guy that has to wear the full U-boat Commander get-up 7 months a year, personally I would trade it all for a Leather Jacket and a recycle bin for my hat

I wish both pilot groups the best, although I get the feeling that the SWA group neither wants well wishes nor needs them. JP

 

[Mach 80]

The poker game may have gone a level deeper than anyone knows. There's a school of thought that Gary Kelly didn't really want F9 but had an ulterior motive for making a bid and knowing that the pilots would never agree had his automatic out.

 

[Whine Lover]

" There's a school of thought..."

Well, then there's that whole "moon landing" thing too... Right?

Discuss.

YKMKR