Hal,
The chief concern with this regulation is the ETA. When the regulation stipulates that any combination of weather reports or forecasts, it means just that. You may combine area forecasts, METAR's, TAF's, etc. Any official weather.
In this case, if you have a current report stipulating that weather is above minimums, you know what the weather is right now. If, however, you have a forecast showing the weather at ETA to be below minimums, you have a problem. You can't launch.
Below, I have a letter which was actually forwarded by the FAA administrator, regarding this issue. Specifically, it addresses Part 121, but the subject matter directly relates to your question, and does address your question. The question asks just what you have asked; can we launch with weather reports showing destination weather above minimums, even though forecasts at the ETA show it below. Weather 121 or 135, the answer is the same; no.
Before posting this letter, a quick comment. You indicated that you got furloughed "back" to a 135 operation. Your wording seems to imply that this is a step backward, a demotion, a lesser position. I suggest you consider an attitude check, and be grateful to be flying. You are not in a position that's beneath your true calling; you are fortunate to be flying an airplane, and that should be the end of it. Enough soapbox.
The letter:
April 26, 1990
Mr. Robert J. Aaronson
Dear Bob:
Thank you for your letter of October 20, 1989, concerning the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) interpretation of Section 121.613 of the Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR). Your letter and its attachments have been carefully considered, and we regret that we could not respond more promptly.
In your letter you request that the interpretation of Section 121.613 by the Office of the Chief Counsel dated February 28, 1968, be "withdrawn." The Office of the Chief Counsel has advised me that the 1968 interpretation states, "We are of the opinion that the language of Section 121.613 is clear and that weather reports or forecasts or any combination thereof which indicate that weather conditions ... will be `occasionally' or `intermittently' below authorized minimums would not satisfy [the] requirement of Section 121.613 for weather conditions `at or above' authorized minimums for dispatch or release to that airport." You make this request because you believe that the interpretation significantly affects the schedule reliability of your member airlines and requires more fuel to reach available alternate airports, causing aircraft performance penalties.
Your belief is that the language and intent of Section 121.613 are much broader than interpreted by the Office of the Chief Counsel. You interpret the main body of a weather forecast to be an estimate. You also interpret any conditional language" that may be in the "remarks" section of a weather report or forecast as only expressing a level of uncertainty about the main body. Examples of conditional language are "occasionally," "chance of," "briefly," and "intermittently." In short, your conclusion is that the main body of a weather report or forecast should control and render insignificant any conditional language in the remarks section.
We are puzzled by the technical analysis which you have attached in support of your request. Basically, you assert that the frequency with which observations actually occur as forecast by the "remarks" section is very low. For example, you state in your Attachment 2 on page 2 that "where conditional language is used by NWS forecasters for ceilings, no ceiling was observed in 54 to 67 percent of the cases." This is not what scientists Lerner and Polger said in their scientific paper that you provided as your Attachment 3. Their Table 3 shows that the ceiling that was forcasted in the conditional remarks section did not occur between 54 and 67 percent of the time. Table 3 does not show that there was "no ceiling observed" in those cases, but rather that the forcasted ceiling did not occur. Since the conditional probabilities as defined by the National Weather Service apply only to weather conditions which are expected to occur less than 50 percent of the time, the data of Lerner and Polger reflect good skill on the part of the forecasters. We cannot see how a confirmation of the high quality of the aviation weather forecasts provided by the government supports your request to withdraw our interpretation.
We appreciate and understand your concerns with §121.613. However, after careful review of the interpretation and applicable sections of the FAR, the Office of the Chief Counsel and the Associate Administrator for Regulation and Certification have advised me that they do not believe that conditional language used by the National Weather Service (NWS) should be deemed to be overridden by the main body. The interpretation is, in their view, completely consistent with the language of the regulation, and they have found nothing in the regulatory history of §121.613 to indicate that the interpretation is incorrect.
You state in your letter that the interpretation has been overtaken by significant advances in technology such as weather satellite imagery and dial-up access to weather radar. You also state in your letter that this advanced technology can provide information to the pilot and dispatcher that was not available in 1968 when the interpretation was made.
The FAA clearly encourages development and application of advanced technology. However, to ensure safety, that advanced technology must be proved to be reliable. The current regulations require that weather reports be prepared by specific sources (e.g., the NWS or a source approved by the NWS) that use technology that has been proved to be reliable.
The Office of the Chief Counsel and the Associate Administrator for Regulation and Certification have also advised me that the best way to amend the rule to reflect advances in technology is through the rulemaking process. At any time, ATA may petition the FAA for rulemaking according to the procedures in §11.25 to suggest rule language that will provide for advanced technology. The rulemaking process will provide an opportunity for comments by parties who have knowledge of the subject and who provide the FAA with facts and opinions regarding the proposed advanced technology. These comments, facts, and opinions will be combined with the agency's expertise to make informed rulemaking decisions concerning the reliability of proposed advanced technology.
Your final statement is that the interpretation reflects an incomplete understanding of the dispatcher/pilot decisionmaking process when considered in context with §121.649 through §121.655.
The Office of the Chief Counsel has reviewed §121.613 in context with §121.649 through §121.655. Section 121.655 provides, in pertinent part, that "[C]eiling and visibility values in the main body of the latest weather report control for VFR and IFR takeoffs and landings and for instrument approach procedures . . . ." Therefore, §121.655 applies weather criteria in the main body of the latest weather report to operations (takeoffs, landings, and instrument approaches; at the time those operations are conducted. However, §121.613 applies weather criteria in a weather report or forecast to dispatch of an aircraft. Dispatch of an aircraft contemplates that landings or instrument approaches will be conducted at some future time. Because of this distinction, we believe that the interpretation is also consistent with the language of the various sections of the regulation that you cite.
If you believe that §121.613 should be changed to allow the main body of a weather report or forecast to control the aircraft dispatch requirements (such as provided in §121.655 for takeoffs and landings), we again recommend that you use the procedures under §11.25 of the FAR to suggest the rule language.
Meanwhile, if you have specific problems regarding particular carriers, please feel free to have your staff contact Anthony J. Broderick, Associate Administrator for Regulation and Certification, at (202) 267-3131. He and his staff will be glad to discuss those specifics with you.
Sincerely,
(signed) Jim
James B. Busey
Administrator