If Delta dies, Skywest = ?

[satpak77]

What happens to Skywest if Delta shuts down temporarily (strike) or all together?

Do they have enough other revenue streams to keep them alive or are they are risk, being a regional for two companies, both Ch.11?

 

[General Lee]

I would guess a Chap 11. Over half of their flying is associated with Delta, and they have too many 50 seat RJs and no mainline sized jets. There wouldn't be enough time to buy new equipment and train enough people to make a difference. LCCs like Southwest and Airtran would move in and offer service to replace DL (Southwest is getting 47 737-700s in 2006 and Airtran is probably getting a few too). Sad but true. Sure, demand would be there, but so would the LCCs. I don't see an RJ operator (what SkyWest is) filling in any gaps. People don't like RJs. Look at Indy. Let's hope we don't strike.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[SSDD]

As much as the thought of Skywest filing Chap 11 excites the General, I think it depends on the length of the strike. If the strike were less than a month or so, Skywest would continue to operate their UA flights, plus limited DL flights that they operate right now. NOT mainline flights, just the stuff they're doing right now.

If DL goes out of business altogether, then that would be a tougher choice, but don't think the wheels are not turning in SGU right now.

 

[satpak77]

ok thanks for the posts guys

 

[General Lee]

As much as the thought of Skywest filing Chap 11 excites the General, I think it depends on the length of the strike. If the strike were less than a month or so, Skywest would continue to operate their UA flights, plus limited DL flights that they operate right now. NOT mainline flights, just the stuff they're doing right now.

If DL goes out of business altogether, then that would be a tougher choice, but don't think the wheels are not turning in SGU right now.

Wow, that really would excite me! NOT. I guess that would mean I would lose my job too in the process. I can't wait for that. But, there are some things that NEED to be worked out, and that is what negotiations are for. No GRAB BAG. The pilots that "remembered the old Delta days" are now GONE. We are a younger group with more options. Hopefully things will work out, but if they don't, everyone will be hurting. I hope it doesn't get to that point, but it might.


And SSDD, I love the part about your SkyWest flights still operating their current DCI flights. To feed what? How many people want to go from SLC to Great Falls? That is ridiculous. Most of those connections go onto CVG, ATL or Hawaii. You might fill St George to SLC, but that is about it. Have fun with that. And, I bet the wheels are turning in St George, asking why they added more exposure to DL by purchasing ASA. It would take years to cover any mainline flying that went away, unless you already had mainline planes, and Southwest does. (47 new 737-700s next year alone) The big losers would be the small communities that never get service again, especially from any LCC. Let's hope the talks resume soon..... Stay tuned.....



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[atlcrashpad]

DAL DOA, SkyWest=?

I believe they have enough with UAL to at least save themselves. ASA would probably sink. But, I doubt they would have bought ASA knowing DAL would sink. I imagine that Grinchstien and his boyz assured SKYW that DAL would squeeze DALPA and would come out ok. Jerry Atkin is no dummy, he has a lot riding on SKYW.

 

[General Lee]

I believe they have enough with UAL to at least save themselves. ASA would probably sink. But, I doubt they would have bought ASA knowing DAL would sink. I imagine that Grinchstien and his boyz assured SKYW that DAL would squeeze DALPA and would come out ok. Jerry Atkin is no dummy, he has a lot riding on SKYW.

Well, without the ASA side, SkyWest still has plenty of E120s and 50 seat RJs on the Delta side. None of those would likely go to any other airline, since they aren't really in demand. So, you would expect all of those to be parked. United wouldn't add money to their SkyWest agreement, so SkyWest would have to live with their current agreement. Any money lost parking those planes (that was guaranteed profit---fee for departure) wouldn't help with purchasing new larger airplanes to compete. Not a pretty picture.(for SkyWest, ASA, Comair, CHQ or Mesa---and also all of the mainline people) Let's hope Delta and Dalpa agree to negotiate fairly. This is NOT a slam dunk for Delta management.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[atlcrashpad]

DAL DOA, SkyWest=?

General,

I don't know for sure, but I would assume (never assume) that the Brakillya's (E-120) are paid for. Having them sit would not do any more harm than when ASA (DAL owned) parked their E120's. UAL agreement? well, I really don't know. I would hope it could keep SKYW afloat.

As far as DALPA, I want them to come through as much as you. I work at ASA and my job would be gone as well as yours.

I'm not professing to be an aviation expert, but DAL and SKYW would have deffinately done their homework on the issues at present (prior to the sale of ASA). This did not happen over night, so neither was not blind to what is happening now. They both knew what issues were in the future for each other.

What I was trying to convey was that Jerry Atkin has a lot invested in a company started by his family. Grinchstien has nothing invested and probably doesn't give a rat's butt if DAL sinks or swims. Jerry Atkin will do what needs to be done to save "his" company.

 

[General Lee]

General,

I don't know for sure, but I would assume (never assume) that the Brakillya's (E-120) are paid for. Having them sit would not do any more harm than when ASA (DAL owned) parked their E120's. UAL agreement? well, I really don't know. I would hope it could keep SKYW afloat.

As far as DALPA, I want them to come through as much as you. I work at ASA and my job would be gone as well as yours.

I'm not professing to be an aviation expert, but DAL and SKYW would have deffinately done their homework on the issues at present (prior to the sale of ASA). This did not happen over night, so neither was not blind to what is happening now. They both knew what issues were in the future for each other.

What I was trying to convey was that Jerry Atkin has a lot invested in a company started by his family. Grinchstien has nothing invested and probably doesn't give a rat's butt if DAL sinks or swims. Jerry Atkin will do what needs to be done to save "his" company.

I agree with you. But, at the last road show our management guys said they were "surprised" at our reaction to all of this. They couldn't believe we wouldn't want to go along with their plans. Maybe they thought this when they talked to Atkin about buying ASA. We will see, but this isn't turning out the way they planned so far IMO. There are things we will NOT give up. Dalpa and Delta will have to negotiate and get this figured out. We have lost most of our super senior pilots (2300 in a little more than 1 year) that would have backed the company on anything, just because of loyalty. The rest of us were wildcards, and now we only have 300 or so older than 55 left. There could be a miscalulation in there. Again, let's hope they figure this out.

Bye Bye-General Lee

 

[atlcrashpad]

DAL Vs. DALPA

General,

Of course they were surprised by the Pilot group's response. They (DAL Mgt) thought you would roll over. Instead, the Pilots dug in and threatened a strike that might mean the downfall of DAL.

Even if Grinchstien and his VP boyz are secure, they will find a lot of DAL employees and ATL Govt officials asking why there are so many unemployed people. He (Grinchstien) and his Possee (sp) might find it very tough leaving town w/o a possible lynching... (obviously joking on the lynching)