How will the skycar affect transportation as we know it?

[JimNtexas]

The MIT program to make a roadable lightplane looks very real, I expect they will fly their prototype fairly soon.

Some of these other programs that have been taking investor money for years and years seem to be highly unlikely to develop a flyable vehcile at all.

 

[leardawg]

Never underestimate the power of technology. People scoffed at the idea of "horseless carriages". It may not be THIS particular vehicle, but the day will come when people will be flying through the air in pilotless vehicles (unless Al-Qaeda carries the day!). I agree the idea of every drunken Tom, Dick and Hiroshi whizzing through the air at the controls of something like this is alarming indeed, but technology will be the key, i.e. automation. We may not see this in our lifetimes, but I'll be willing to bet a hundred years from now people will be climbing in their air pods and commanding a destination, with their fingers or by voice.

 

[xcr600]

Ya a honda that gets 30mpg is minimum anymore I can only imagine how much fuel 4 turbofan engines use......Did someone say Avro for the road?

 

[A Squared]

Amazing, astounding. And quite frankly just a little depressing.




Turns out, PT Barnum was right, there truly is a sucker born every minute.

OK, folks, and by "folks", I mean those of you who think that there is even a remote possibility that the Skycar will *ever* fly, did you happen to read the website? Moller has been building "prototypes" for over 4 decades, longer than many on this board have been alive. And he has yet to come up with one which will hover out of ground effect. If this doesn't mean anything to you, I'll explain. Any determined person with enough time can make something which will hover in ground effect. I could. It would probably take a couple of months to do it in my garage this winter. You can order the plans from the back of Popular Mechanics. Nothing too terribly difficult or impressive, and that is all Paul Moller has accomplished since his first prototype in 1962: Hover in ground effect.

Almost a half century of accomplishing nothing more than your average backyard enthisiast can (and many have) accomplish, yet some of you would apparently believe that in just a few short years, not only is the "skycar" going to suddenly hover up out of ground effect, but it will fly, fly 325 knots at 20,000 ft.

Look folks, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but the man is a thief, a liar and a fraud. This is how he makes a living. He has spent a lifetime cheating suckers out of thier money by lying to them, and all he has to do is about every decade spit out a "prototype" of another hovercraft with cool styling. He's made a comfortable living at it. Did the website happen to mention that the SEC went after Moller for stock fraud? That he was fined, and had a injusction issued against him? Oh, it must have slipped his mind to mention that.

But don't worry, that's all just details, he'll have FAA certification by the end of 2008 (right after Pilotyip's 2007 pilot shortage)

Oh yes, if you want to extend your life, Paul Moller witll sell you some special organic food which will do that too ..(seriously, there's a link on his website)

 

[A Squared]

The MIT program to make a roadable lightplane looks very real, I expect they will fly their prototype fairly soon.

Yagottbef'inkiddnme.

What do you base "soon" on? If you look at their own website, so far they have a design for the wing folding mechanism on paper (on paper only), and they have done a little wind tunnel testing on a 1/5 scale foam mock-up. By any measure, that is a long, long, way from flying a prototype "soon", or perhaps by "soon" you meant 5 years from now?


I wouldn't put the Terrafugia folks in the in the same class as Moller. I don't have any reason to believe that they are frauds, just hopelessly unrealistic. It looks like they’ve assembled quite a bit of brainpower, but not much common sense. Have you looked at their aircraft specifications? They're going to certify it in the Light Sport Category. That means a maximum gross weight of 1320 lb. That's not much. That's about the weight of an early Taylorcraft, or a j 3 cub. You ever sat in one in one of those? Not much structure around you .... you want to drive something that flimsy in traffic, tooling around with soccer moms in their Expeditions, yakking on their cell phones? Oh yeah, in addition to the 1320 max gross weight, it will have a 430 lb useful load. That means an empty weight of 890 lb. That’s about the empty weight of a Light Sport category Taylorcraft.....but the Taylorcraft doesn’t have a drivetrain, and it doesn't have a mechanism which automatically folds the each wing in two places. both of those add weight, a lot of weight. But hey, these are clever kids, and they're going to use all the latest composites that Piper and Taylor didn't have. They might be able to do it. I'm skeptical that they'll be able to bring it in under the LSA weight limit, and I'm *very* skeptical that they'll be able to do that and have a 430 lb. useful load, but likely, in a decade or so, and after spending millions and millions of dollar of other people's money (that's the best kind, isn't it?), they'll come up with something that flies and has folding wings. They *might* even be able to run it through FAA certification (another 10 years and several million more dollars) So, now what? Well, they will have a neat little gizmo and a lot of broke ex-friends.
The thing they *won't* have is a bunch of people buying them. There have already been 3 airplane cars that gained certification. without exception, none were produced, there really wasn't much real interest in them (interest as in people actually wanting to buy them) They aren't very good airplanes and they aren't very good cars, just like the Terrafugia Transition won't be a very good car and won't be a very good airplane. If I want a "not a very good car" and a "not a very good airplane" I can buy a geo metro and a piper tomahawk. I won't have to wait 20 years and I can buy them both, now for about $50k instead of half a million dollars. (and the Tomahawk will probably be a better airplane then the Transition and the Geo Metro will almost certainly be a *much* better car then the Transition)

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Technology needed for the flying car:

1. Auto nav and auto avoidance and FULLY auto flight.
<check>

2. powerplants
<check>

3. power supply
(*PENDING*)

Sure, it will fly but how far?
Being generous, it will burn 8 times the fuel of a comparable auto. Petrolium
reserves can't handle that. Electrical? Batteries need 2 orders of magnitude
increase on power density (capacity)

For you dolts who worry about flight (driving) skill and DUI's:
(IT WILL HAVE TO BE FULLY AUTOMATIC WITHOUT FLIGHT CONTROLS!!!)


SO when you know how to power it (realisticly), let me know.

CE

 

[JimNtexas]

" Not much structure around you .... you want to drive something that flimsy in traffic"

Ever heard of a 'smart car'? People all over the world are driving them. They make a J-3 look like an AN-225.

The thing about the MIT project is that its not claiming a bunch of mystery break-throughs and secret sauce. MIT is using modern materials and engineering in a novel way.

They certainly are not claiming that the skies will be darkened with hordes of these little vehicles, and they are not asking a lot people to send in money.

There is no reason the MIT project can't succeed. I can think of a few thousand reasons why certain other hypothetical vehicles are, in my opinion, very unlikely to ever fly at all, let alone be certified to carry passengers without a pilot.

 

[HoursHore]

I think I saw that thing on "That's Incredible" about 20+ years ago.

 

[Laxman]

So what happens when bird strikes/midairs take out a lot of people? There is going to be very little paint swapping without loss of life. The public just cant handle that. Hell, the public at large can barely handle or understand the current aviation community as is.

 

[JimNtexas]

So what happens when bird strikes/midairs take out a lot of people? There is going to be very little paint swapping without loss of life. The public just cant handle that. Hell, the public at large can barely handle or understand the current aviation community as is.

Not to mention what will happen the first time one of these robot planes takes passengers into the center of a thunderstorm.

 

[A Squared]

" Not much structure around you .... you want to drive something that flimsy in traffic"

Ever heard of a smart car? People all over the world are driving them. They make a J-3 look like an AN-225.

Yeah, I've heard of them, even seen them. Big difference. the smart car weighs 1600 lb, that is a *LOT* more structure than a 890 lb car. Even at that I think the... "what happens when I get rearended at a stop light by a suburban"... factor will keep a lot of people from considering a smart car, even though it's going to offer a great deal more crash protection than an airplane.

The thing about the MIT project is that its not claiming a bunch of mystery break-throughs and secret sauce. MIT is using modern materials and engineering in a novel way.

First thing, it's not an "MIT" project. it is a group of people, some of whom have degrees from MIT, some of whom do not. Some of them put together the concept as a class design project when they were students at MIT. They won the prize for "best design project" or something like that. Dizzyed by winning hte science fair, they formed a company to actually engineer and build thier design. MIT is not making an airplane.

There is no reason the MIT project can't succeed.

Well it depends on what you mean by succeed. If by succeed you mean build a prototype which will fly and will drive on the road with it's wings folded, I agree, there is no reason they can't do that. It has alreadey been proven, repeatedly, that you *can* build a car that flies, It's been proven that you can even get it certificated. It has also been proven that beyond the novelty, nobody actually wants to buy one.

How many more times do we need to prove these things?

 

[JimNtexas]

" How many more times do we need to prove these things?"

Of course since the Wright Brothers built an airplane that could take off and fly around a field carrying two people, it was crazy for the [SIZE=-1]Klapmeiers to start Cirrius.

I don't know if the MIT GRADS 'science project' will be a commerical success, but I'm glad there are still Americans out there who are willing to try crazy things.

My original point was that the MIT roadable airplane should in no way be compared to certain projects that have a 20 year history of taking investor money to construct a highly dubious vehicle that would require many major breakthroughs to even get off the ground.

One is a reasonable application of existing technology. The other isn't.
[/SIZE]

 

[Shiny Side Up]

I'm picturing talking to some Suzie homewrecker on her cellphone and in the background all you can hear is TRAFFIC! TERRAIN! SINK RATE! WHOOP WHOOP, PULL UP!

You guys are kidding me with this 100% automation. Would YOU strap into something with ZERO manual overrides?
What if the backup system fails?
Imagine your cruising along and the screens go dark, you gonna make a call to tech support in India? "Thenk you for calling, my name is Duke Rajeev, please hold. You are number 237"

 

[414Flyer]

Do you realize how long these Moller projects have been in the classifed ads section of Popular Science/Mechanics, and how its always just around the corner.

I think I have seen those Moller ads for 20 years now or so. Anyone who thinks some Moller wonder car is about to take flight, might need to also buy some gas pills, collidal silver for every illness, or some chemtrail videos.

 

[flyinloki]

This thing was in Popular Science like 10 years ago. Doesn't look like its gotten very far.

 

[leardawg]

I'm picturing talking to some Suzie homewrecker on her cellphone and in the background all you can hear is TRAFFIC! TERRAIN! SINK RATE! WHOOP WHOOP, PULL UP!

You guys are kidding me with this 100% automation. Would YOU strap into something with ZERO manual overrides?
What if the backup system fails?
Imagine your cruising along and the screens go dark, you gonna make a call to tech support in India? "Thenk you for calling, my name is Duke Rajeev, please hold. You are number 237"

How much resistance was there a little over a century ago to climbing into a carriage without a horse and motoring around in it? Or to climbing into one of them flying contraptions a hundred years ago? Each generation adopts its' own faith and comfort with new technology. I would likely hesitate with climbing into an automated flying pod, but my grandkids? Quite likely not.

 

[Bluto]

Anyone who thinks some Moller wonder car is about to take flight, might need to also buy some gas pills, collidal silver for every illness, or some chemtrail videos.

Maybe you should add magic, life-extending almond butter. They can order it here, from the same guy who's going to bring you the SkyCar!:
http://www.moller.com/about/history/lifeext/

 

[unreal]

I'd also love to see people actually keep up on maintenance on one of these things. Many people on the road don't even maintain their cars properly, so what's going to convince them to drop a lot more money for required FAA inspections and maintenance?

Not gonna happen. People will be skimping on maintenance left and right, and that's bad juju.

 

[414Flyer]

Sometimes there are companies who are less about about actually making a product, and more about making money from the investments.

A case in point is American Utilicraft in my opinion. They have an aircraft design, but nothing built, and are not worth much at all. They almost got the Navajo nation to invest 34 million, in exchange for %25 percent ownership of the company. A company that is and was worth, far far far less than that.

The way the contract was written, even if utilicraft went bust and didnt make a single plane, the original owners of it would walk away with millions.
Either way, they were gonna make out, they just needed investors.

Moller probably uses investors money for his income. While I am sure he would love to actually get it to fly, either way, he has a job and money

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

You guys are kidding me with this 100% automation. Would YOU strap into something with ZERO manual overrides?
What if the backup system fails?
Imagine your cruising along and the screens go dark, you gonna make a call to tech support in India? "Thenk you for calling, my name is Duke Rajeev, please hold. You are number 237"

Nice racists remark.

and yes, I would ride in one. Show me an order of magnitude increase in
safety, and I'll fly in it tomorrow.

You'll get in one too, as soon as it's trendy.

CE